Top NFL Wild-Card Playoff Parlay: ‘Pile Up The Points’

By Adam Thompson

Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EST

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If history is any indication, points could be at a premium in the NFL Wild-Card Playoff games Saturday and Sunday.

The last four years have been defense-first slugfests, with scoring well below season averages. Last year’s four wild-card games averaged just 36.3 ppg. The year before that was just 38, with 41.5 ppg and just 34 ppg the two years prior.

But trends don’t last forever and oddsmakers don’t foresee much grinding. The lowest O/U is 44 points, for Saturday’s Bills at Texans game. The Vikings-Saints matchup is at 49.5 points. Is this the year the trend reverses?

CHECK OUT: Bookies.com NFL Week 17 Betting Power Rankings

One trend wild-card teams hope flips: It’s been seven years since a team that won in the opening weekend of the playoffs went on to win the Super Bowl — the 2012-13 Ravens were the last team to win four games in a postseason.

Here is the parlay from Bookies.com NFL expert Adam Thompson for the opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs. Those who have wagered $100 on his weekly parlay bets this season are up nearly $1,800.

Best NFL Weekend Parlay

Odds are current as of publication but subject to change.

The “Pile Up The Points” Parlay

Leg 1: Eagles ML

Home underdogs have fared well ATS in the wild-card round, a solid 16-7-1 all-time. This isn’t many points, and we can improve the value of the parlay with a moneyline leg. No team is more banged-up than Philadelphia, but Seattle comes in second place there. The Seahawks have been squeaking by and it’s lost three of four with a pair of humbling losses to the Rams and Cardinals. The Eagles have won four in a row, have momentum and have the homefield. No team is as poor at defending TEs than Seattle, and no team is better at using TEs than Philadelphia.

Leg 2: Titans +5

The Patriots are the champions until someone beats them, but it could very well happen here. New England is just 4-4 in the second half of the season, averaging 21.3 ppg. Tennessee has won seven of 10 and is averaging 33.4 ppg the last seven weeks. New England’s defense is better and it’s in Foxborough, which keeps me off the Titans moneyline, but we’re taking strong note of the direction each team’s play has been heading — and the motivation Titans coach Mike Vrabel has shown when facing his old team.

Leg 3: Vikings +7.5

The Saints have won their last three opening playoff games, but none by more than six points. They’ve failed to cover the last four times as a home playoff favorite. Their last six playoff games have all been decided by eight points or less (an average of 4.3 ppg). The Saints have been blowing out teams lately, but the Vikings’ defense ranks No. 2 in the red zone and their offense can score just fine when healthy. This is simply too many points.

About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.

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