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Trey Lance Next Team Odds: Will He Stay With The Niners?

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 4 mins

Trey Lance Next Team Odds: Will He Stay With The Niners?

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Brock Purdy, the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, got his opportunity as QB of the San Francisco 49ers and shined. It’s no surprise he’ll lead the Niners into the 2023 season. 

Sam Darnold, former starter of the Jets and Panthers and acquired by the team in the offseason, earned the No. 2 spot on the depth chart two weeks prior to Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. 

That means Trey Lance is essentially the emergency QB on the roster. That’s not what anyone envisioned when San Francisco traded up to draft him No. 3 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. 

Now, the Niners may trade their prospect and let another team mold him into the future starter San Francisco envisioned. 

Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has used his resources of NFL contacts developed over 20 years covering the league to create his hypothetical NFL futures odds on Lance’s next team. 

Trey Lance 2023 Team Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
San Francisco 49ers+30025.0%
Minnesota Vikings+40020.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+55015.4%
Los Angeles Rams+75011.8%
Arizona Cardinals+10009.1%
Chicago Bears+10009.1%
Washington Commanders+12007.7%
Atlanta Falcons+12007.7%
Detroit Lions+14006.7%
The Field+12507.4%

This market is for entertainment purposes only and has been created by the Bookies.com team. It is not currently available on betting apps.

Lance played college ball at smaller North Dakota State, but NFL teams fell in love with his combination of size (6-4, 225 pounds) and athleticism. During his 2019 season in college, he threw 28 TDs with zero INTs and rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 more scores. 

The Niners took a leap at Lance. It hasn’t panned out. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said injuries (ankle and finger) hindered his development. 

Lance and Darnold performed similarly in the preseason, but Lance, still just 23 years of age, offers far more value on the trade market. 

Where Will Trey Lance Land?

We’ll start with the only two teams planning to start a QB this season that isn’t locked in through 2024. 

Kirk Cousins is 33 years of age and making $35 million this season for the Minnesota Vikings. Many experts believe this is it for the Cousins/Vikings pairing. Many also believe the starting QB for 20224 is not on the roster. 

Nick Mullens, who owns a 5-12 starting record over five seasons with three different teams (27 TDs, 23 INTs), is the No. 2 guy right now. 

If there is an opportunity to acquire a young, potential-laden Lance, the Vikings may have the most incentive to make something happen. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers begin the post-Tom Brady era with Baker Mayfield, who they signed to a one-year deal. Mayfield was 2-8 last year as a starter with the Panthers and Rams, but showed enough for a fourth opportunity to be a successful starter in the league. If Mayfield struggles, second-year pro Kyle Trask awaits. But Lance presents more upside – at least on paper – than both of them. 

Salary cap issues this season for Tampa require moving someone to make it work. 

It’s also possible the 49ers are stuck with Lance. The team reportedly shopped the QB during the off-season and received no serious offers. Cutting him is a last-case scenario due to a big dead-cap hit, but if he’s going to be a malcontent, it might be the required move. 

If he gets cut, teams with QB questions and cap space for 2024 could call. Lance’s cap hit for next season is $10.8 million before a fifth-year option. 

That opens the door for teams such as the Los Angeles Rams (Matthew Stafford isn’t getting any younger), Arizona Cardinals (Kyler Murray has a massive deal but the team could use a No. 2 option in case the situation implodes) and Chicago Bears (Justin Fields is signed through 2024 with a fifth-year option available). 

Teams that may not be looking for a QB, but could take a leap if the price is right, including the Washington Commanders (Sam Howell) and Atlanta Falcons (Desmond Ridder), who appear content offering opportunities to their unproven second-year signal-callers. 

Veteran Jared Goff has two more seasons with the Detroit Lions. He was stellar (4,438 yards, 29 TDs, 7 INTs) in guiding the Lions to their first winning season since 2017 but has just two years left on his deal and will be in his 30s. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.