By Adam Thompson | | 4 mins
Tua Tagovailoa Draft Odds & Projection: Betting The Props
Tua Tagovailoa isn’t going to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. That slot is likely going to LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. But the Alabama star signal-caller may not be on the board much longer than that. Or, he might be.
A number of teams are interested in Tagovailoa under center as the future of the franchise. The combine has passed, and as the NFL Draft nears (April 23-25), Tagovailoa is one of the big keys to the first round. Where he lands – and when that is – may set off where many other players end up.
Tua Tagovailoa Draft Position
Analysis and Pick
Tua Tagovailoa missed the end of the 2019 college football season at Alabama, but prior to that was a star with the Crimson Tide. He famously replaced Jalen Hurts for the second half of the 2017 national championship game, leading the Tide to the title. In 2018 he won the Maxwell Award and Walter Camp Player of the Year award with 43 TDs and six INTs. Last season he passed for 33 TD and three INTs before being sidelined. He can also scramble and run for yardage.
The top seven picks in the NFL Draft belong to, in order, the Bengals, Redskins, Lions, Giants, Dolphins, Chargers and Panthers. Of those seven, five could be in the market for a quarterback.
Barring a bridge-burning Twitter tirade by Burrow, he’s going No. 1. The Redskins have Dwayne Haskins, who just finished his rookie season, but are they content with him? The offense ranked dead-last in efficiency, and if they believe Haskins isn’t the man of the future and Tua is, they’re in position to make it happen.
If Washington takes Chase Young and his rare level of defensive disruption, Tua likely falls to No. 5 or No. 6.
The Dolphins are taking a QB at No. 5, likely Tua or Oregon’s Justin Herbert. And whoever Miami doesn’t take, the Los Angeles Chargers likely nab at No. 6. Of course, where Tom Brady lands could matter, too.
It’s likely up to the Lions as to which side of this bet hits. A trade to No. 3 with Detroit is on the table for a team enamored with Tua – the Chargers and Panthers have both been linked to the spot. But I like the odds and the teams sitting just over 3.5. Bet it at +135 with PointsBet.
Team to Draft Tua Tagovailoa
|Los Angeles Chargers||+300|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+5000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+5000|
Analysis & Pick
Every team on this list needs a QB, with the Raiders the possible exception. They just want a new QB. The Colts and Buccaneers would likely prefer to bring in a veteran, as both are a solid, veteran-preferred QB away from being real playoff contenders. They’re also in much-better position, draft-wise, to add via free agency.
The Redskins need a lot of help, but it’s too early to give up on Haskins after just 203 pass attempts, especially after his amazing college career at Ohio State. Plus, Chase Young is too special to pass up.
The Dolphins make the most sense for a variety of reasons. No. 1, they’re ahead of most other teams in need of a QB. No. 2, if they decide they need to move up to the No. 3 spot, they have the pieces (several picks in Rounds 2 and 3) to trade up.
The Chargers are the only other team with next most-likely shot at inking Tua, but it would require a trade to No. 3, and they are in the market for Brady.
Tua may go No. 3 or No. 5, but going to Miami seems most likely. Bet it at -140 with PointsBet.