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How The Tyreek Hill Trade Shifted Futures Odds Across The AFC

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 17 mins

How The Tyreek Hill Trade Shifted Futures Odds Across The AFC

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Another NFL odds aftershock rattled the AFC Wednesday when the Kansas City Chiefs traded WR Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. Hill becomes the highest-paid wide receiver in NFL history after signing a 4-year, $120 million contract extension.

The deal gives the Dolphins a boost in their quest for relevance in the AFC East but still leaves them far behind division-rival Buffalo when it comes to NFL futures betting markets.

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The Bills were one of the biggest beneficiaries in the AFC on betting sites and at sportsbooks. Their edge over Kansas City swelled after the swap. The Bills are now +375 at Caesars Sportsbook to win the AFC. Buffalo was +400 before Hill became a Dolphin. Meanwhile, the Chiefs slid from +450 to +500.

The Bills are -190 at DraftKings to win the AFC East for the third straight season. The Dolphins are +400, tied with New England. The Dolphins beat the Patriots twice last season. The Jets, who were the runner-up in the Hill sweepstakes, are overpriced at +2200.

The Bills and Chiefs remain the only AFC teams with odds lower than +1500 at Caesars to win Super Bowl 57.

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Deal Moves The Needle In The AFC

How The Tyreek Hill Trade Shifted Futures Odds Across The AFC 1

Here’s a look at how the AFC title odds changed when Tyreek Hill was traded from Kansas City to Miami. Five teams saw their prices change, which is quite remarkable considering just one starting player was dealt.

2022-23 AFC Champion Odds Before & After Tyreek Hill Trade

Team Odds Before Odds After
Buffalo Bills+400 +375 ➜
Kansas City Chiefs+450 +500 ➜
Denver Broncos+850 +850 ➜
LA Chargers+850 +850 ➜
Cleveland Browns+900 +1000 ➜
Cincinnati Bengals+1200 +1200 ➜
Baltimore Ravens+1200 +1200 ➜
Indianapolis Colts+1300 +1300 ➜
Tennessee Titans+1300 +1300 ➜
New England Patriots+1700 +2000 ➜
Miami Dolphins+2500 +2000 ➜
Las Vegas Raiders+2500 +2500 ➜
Pittsburgh Steelers+4000 +4000 ➜
Jacksonville Jaguars+6000 +6000 ➜
NY Jets+8000 +8000 ➜
Houston Texans+10000 +10000 ➜

Current odds via Caesars Sportsbook and subject to change

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AFC Roiled By Major Changes

Since the end of last season, the AFC has welcomed five new head coaches, seen four teams land new starting QBs, and multiple key players change uniforms.

AFC QB Shifts

Here’s a look at the AFC teams that have changed QBs this offseason so far.

Team New QB Old QB
Broncos Russell Wilson Teddy Bridgewater
Steelers Mitchell Trubisky Ben Roethlisberger
Colts Matt Ryan Carson Wentz
Browns Deshaun Watson Baker Mayfield

AFC Coaching Shifts

Here’s a look at the AFC teams that have changed coaches this offseason. They are listed with their new coach and the coach from the final game of the 2021-22 season.

Team New Coach Old Coach
Broncos Nathaniel Hackett Vic Fangio
Dolphins Mike McDaniel Brian Flores
Texans Lovie Smith David Culley
Jaguars Doug Pedersen Darrell Bevell
Raiders Josh McDaniels Rich Bisaccia

Is Miami Now A Playoff Contender?

How The Tyreek Hill Trade Shifted Futures Odds Across The AFC 2

Miami has not reached the playoffs since 2016. The Dolphins have appeared in the postseason just twice in the past 20 years.

McDaniel enters his first season as a head coach. The addition of Hill came a day after the Dolphins landed Pro Bowl tackle Terron Armstead. Running backs Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds, and receiver Cedrick Wilson, have also signed with the Dolphins.

Dolphins Futures Odds Movement

Here’s a look at the NFL betting market at DraftKings for the Dolphins to win the Super Bowl, AFC and AFC East before and after the Hill trade.

Market Pre-Trade Post-Trade
Super Bowl +5000 +3500 ➜
AFC +3000 +2000 ➜
AFC East +650 +400 ➜

The Dolphins – for now – are sticking with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. Former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores never had full faith in Tagovailoa. That may have hindered the QB’s performance. There will be no such excuses in South Florida this season.

Jaylen Waddle and Hill now form one of the fastest WR tandems in the NFL. Hill gives Miami a deep threat the team has been lacking for several seasons.

Chiefs Left Behind In AFC West?

The Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes II are now left to play catch-up in the AFC West, even though they remain betting favorite to win the division for a seventh straight season. The Chargers are bringing back Justin Herbert and Mike Williams. The Broncos have Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett at the helm. And the Raiders have Josh McDaniels manipulating an offense that includes Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller and Davante Adams.

Hill caught 67 TD passes in his four seasons with the Chiefs. He went over 1,000 yards receiving each year, was named to the Pro Bowl three times and won a Super Bowl.

RELATED: Panthers 2022-23 First Snap QB Odds

Chiefs Futures Odds Movement

Here’s a look at the odds at DraftKings for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, AFC and AFC West before and after the Hill trade.

Market Pre-Trade Post-Trade
Super Bowl +750 +900 ➜
AFC +400 +500 ➜
AFC West +130 +165 ➜

The public portion of the deal for Hill developed quickly. A series of big-money WR contracts this free-agency period was the trigger. Hill ended up with an extension that includes $72.2 million in guaranteed money. That’s something he could not have gotten in Kansas City due to the Chiefs’ salary cap limitations.

Adams ended up in Las Vegas after being hit with a $20.14 million franchise tag by the Packers. Adams made it known he was unhappy with his deal in Green Bay and ended up with a 5-year, $142.5 million extension with $67.5 million guaranteed. The Panthers gave WR D.J. Moore a 3-year contract extension worth $61.884 million. The Buccaneers franchised WR Chris Godwin, but soon extended him for 3 years with $40 million guaranteed.

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.
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