For the second year in a row, the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders meet in a semifinal series, with the winner going on to play for the Stanley Cup.

The Lightning will have home-ice advantage, something it couldn’t say last year when the series was played in the “bubble” in Toronto. Tampa Bay has more high-end offensive talent than the Islanders, with Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos just some of the big names up front, and NHL betting sites make Tampa Bay the favorite to advance.

But the Islanders are used to neutralizing supposedly superior offensive teams. Coach Barry Trotz might have the best defensive mind in the history of the league. That’s not hyperbole.

Lightning vs. Islanders Series Odds

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication.

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Lightning vs Islanders Series Betting Tips

The Islanders allowed more than three goals just once in the six-game series with Boston, and the same against Pittsburgh in the first round.

They did allow at least three goals in five of the 12 postseason games overall, though. So, it’s been a tribute to New York’s offense that it has been able to get this far. Bettors favoring the over at top sportsbooks, take note.

For you prop bettors out there, I think Tampa Bay's Point is an excellent choice to score some goals, starting with Game 1. Point has eight goals in 11 postseason games so far. Not bad.

GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS CANADIENS: Check Out Our Stanley Cup Semifinals Betting Guide

Semyon Varlamov started five of the six games in last year’s postseason for the Islanders and had a .921 save percentage. Andrei Vasilevskiy, though, was even better with a .933 save percentage and eventual series win. So, under bettors, take note!

I would also go heavy on prop bets involving Kucherov to get at least a point in most games. The former Hart Trophy winner, who missed all the regular season to injury, has been tremendous so far in the postseason, with 18 points in 11 games. Not bad.

Tampa Bay has been very good offensively in third periods in the playoffs, too. Pay attention to the NHL betting lines for totals in third periods.

Check out the best NHL picks from the top handicappers, only at bookiesEDGE

Lightning vs Islanders Series Pick

The same obstacles the Islanders faced last year are right there in front of them again. Namely, all that Lightning depth up front, not to mention a Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman in Victor Hedman and Vezina-caliber goalie in Vasilevskiy. The trade-deadline acquisition of defenseman David Savard from Columbus is starting to pay off for the Lightning, too.

The Islanders are playing some excellent team hockey right now, but the defense and goaltending have shown some cracks at times. As much as I love Trotz as a defensive mastermind, it’s tough to see how he can stop the Lightning over a potential seven-game series.

Kucherov and Point have been dominant offensive players so far for the Lightning, while the Islanders just don’t have that kind of firepower up front. If Mathew Barzal can get things to the next level, he would give the Islanders more of a chance. But Tampa Bay knows how to play defense on top guys, too.

That’s why I’m taking the Lightning to win in six games ( +425 with DraftKings ), to advance to its second straight Stanley Cup Final. (Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review)

Lightning Vs Islanders Series Schedule, TV

Game 1: Sunday, June 13, 3 p.m. ET (NBC)

Game 2: Tuesday, June 15, 8 p.m. ET (NBC Sports)

Game 3: Thursday, June 17, 8 p.m. ET (USA)

Game 4: Saturday, June 19, 8 p.m. ET (USA)

Game 5 (if necessary): Monday, June 21, 8 p.m. ET (NBC Sports)

Game 6 (if necessary): Wednesday, June 23, 8 p.m. ET (NBC Sports)

Game 7 (if necessary): Friday, June 25, 8 p.m. ET (NBC Sports)