By Adrian Dater | | 6 mins
Lightning vs Stars Odds & Stanley Cup Final Betting Guide
It may seem like the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final are alien to one another, but there are a few connections between the Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning.
- Dallas interim head coach Rick Bowness was an assistant coach with the Lightning from 2013-18, before being dismissed by former Lightning GM Steve Yzerman, who said the defense — which Bowness oversaw — wasn’t “quite good enough.”
- Dallas goalie Ben Bishop — who probably won’t play in this Stanley Cup Final because of injury — was a Lightning goalie for parts of five seasons.
- Each team has won one Stanley Cup in team histories that date to the early-to-mid 1990s. That will change for one team in the 2020 Cup Final, which starts Saturday night at Rogers Place in Edmonton.
It is the third trip to the Finals for each team (Tampa Bay last made it 2015 against Chicago, Dallas last made it in 2000 against New Jersey). Here’s everything fans of NHL betting need to know when approaching the series.
Lightning vs Stars Odds In Stanley Cup Final
|Lightning Win Series||-182|
|Stars Win Series||+160|
|Lightning Win 4-0||+725|
|Lightning Win 4-1||+385|
|Lightning Win 4-2||+415|
|Lightning Win 4-3||+450|
|Stars Win 4-0||+2500|
|Stars Win 4-1||+1150|
|Stars Win 4-2||+700|
|Stars Win 4-3||+650|
Top Stanley Cup Final Prop Odds
- Brayden Point (-162) or Tyler Seguin (+120)
- Nikita Kucherov (-177) or Jamie Benn (+130)
- Victor Hedman (-177) or John Klingberg (+130)
- Brayden Point (-250) or Jamie Benn (+180)
- Nikita Kucherov (-250) or Tyler Seguin (+180)
- Victor Hedman (-157) or Miro Heiskanen (+115)
CONN SMYTHE WINNER
- Brayden Point (+150)
- Victor Hedman (+200)
- Miro Heiskanen (+250)
- Anton Khudobin (+300)
- Nikita Kucherov (+325)
- Jamie Benn (+1000)
- Andrei Vasilevskiy (+1000)
- Joe Pavelski (+1700)
- Tyler Seguin (+2200)
- Denis Guryanov (+2200)
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Lightning vs Stars Betting Analysis & Pick
Tampa Bay was the prohibitive favorite to win it all last season but was swept in the first round. Dallas was considered a team to stay away from betting-wise when this postseason began, having lost their final six regular-season games and not looking too good in the Western Conference round-robin.
Yet here they are. This is a tough series to call. Dallas, to me, has been like Jason from “Friday The 13th,” always springing back to life when they look good and dead. In Round 1 against Calgary, the Stars were down 2-1 in the series and behind by a goal with under 20 seconds left in Game 4 but pulled out the win and the series. Against Colorado in Game 7 of the second round, they were down a goal with 3:40 left in regulation but won that game too.Against Vegas, they had an easier time of things, relatively speaking, but still had to come from behind in the third period to beat Vegas in Game 5.
Tampa Bay hasn’t had to perform as many Houdini escapes, but the Bolts have had to work very hard to win their series. They had to win a five-overtime game in Round 1, and had back-to-back overtime games to end the Eastern Conference finals.
I think this series, as they often do, will come down to goaltending. That’s where Tampa Bay has its biggest advantage and why I think they’ll win the series.
While Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin has been tremendous for much of the postseason, he’s simply not on the same level as Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has a .931 saves percentage and a 1.83 goals-against average in the playoffs. Khudobin’s GAA is 2.62, with a .920 SP.
Tampa Bay has shown it can match teams that want to cut the ice into thirds and play station-to-station, defensive-style hockey. Or, if you want to freewheel with them, the Bolts are more than happy to do that, too, with four lines that can all do some damage.
Dallas has had something of a Cinderella run to the Final — the Stars have allowed more goals than they’ve scored in these playoffs — but the fairy tale ends here. Tampa Bay is deeper and more skilled up front and the Bolts have the better goalie. That should be good enough for their second Cup.
Series Pick: Lightning in 6
Conn Smythe Pick: Victor Hedman (+200)
3 Stanley Cup Final Betting Tips
1. Give props to Hedman: Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman has nine goals in this postseason. The Stars are a team that spend a fair amount of time in the penalty box, which would put Hedman and the Bolts on the power play. Don’t be shy about taking Hedman to score a goal in individual game prop bets. If the Bolts win the Cup and Hedman keeps playing the way he has, I also think he’s a great prop bet for the Conn Smythe.
2. Take the under more often than not: The last three Lightning-Islanders playoff games never exceeded five goals. The same can be said for the final three Dallas-Vegas games in the Western Conference finals.
3. Keep fading Seguin: Dallas No. 1 center Tyler Seguin clearly has some kind of injury that has hampered him. Maybe some time off the last few days will help, but I’d keep fading him on goal props. He has gone nine straight games without a goal.
You can make also make these bets at FOX Bet:
Stanley Cup Final 2020 Schedule
- Game 1: Saturday, Sept. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
- Game 2: Monday, Sept. 21, 8 p.m. ET – NBCSN
- Game 3: Wednesday, Sept. 23, 8 p.m. ET – NBCSN
- Game 4: Friday, Sept. 25, 8 p.m. ET – NBC
- *Game 5: Saturday, Sept. 26, 8 p.m. ET – NBC
- *Game 6: Monday, Sept. 28, 8 p.m. ET – NBC
- *Game 7: Wednesday, Sept. 30, 8 p.m. ET – NBC
Adrian Dater NHL Playoffs Betting Recap
Eastern Conference Picks
First-Round Picks: Flyers (-240) over Canadiens (+195), Lightning (-255) over Blue Jackets (+185), Bruins (-159) over Hurricanes (+135) and Islanders (+122) over Capitals (-143). Record: 4-0
Second-Round Picks: Lightning (+100) over Bruins (-118), Flyers (-139) over Islanders (+118). Record: 1-1
Conference Finals Pick: Lightning (-195) over Islanders (+160). Record: 1-0
Western Conference Picks
First-Round Picks: Golden Knights (-315) over Blackhawks (+255), Avalanche (-286) over Coyotes (+235), Blues (-200) over Canucks (+167) and Flames (+100) over Stars (-118). Our Record: 2-2
Second-Round Picks: Golden Knights (-275) over Canucks (+220), Avalanche (-195) over Stars (+160). Record: 1-1
Conference Finals Pick: Stars (+185) over Golden Knights (-225). Record: 1-0
Overall Betting Result: 10-4, +473