By F1 Betting Expert | | 11 mins
2022 Monaco Grand Prix Odds, Picks, and Predictions
A dramatic Spanish Grand Prix saw the order shift as Red Bull left Barcelona leading both championships through winner Max Verstappen. Around the tight, twisting streets of Monaco, can anyone stop the reigning champion?
After all, Verstappen has won three races in a row, his Red Bull RB18 looking every bit the competitive package that should land him a second championship. In Monaco, things aren’t quite that simple, however. Charles Leclerc enters his home race raring to bounce back in a seriously fast Ferrari.
Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix Odds
Monaco Grand Prix Betting Tips
So Verstappen won his third consecutive race last time out in Spain, but let’s not forget that Charles Leclerc led right until his engine cut out. That was Leclerc’s first retirement of the season and cost him a likely victory, plus lead of the drivers’ championship.
Verstappen suffered a problem with his rear wing but inherited his win as Red Bull swapped him and team-mate, Sergio Perez, later on. And in a much-improved Mercedes, George Russell completed the podium.
Overtaking isn’t easy in Spain but downright difficult in Monaco where the larger 2022-spec cars will take on the narrow streets for the first time. That means, whoever gets pole position should win. That’s not always the case – three of the last seven Monaco Grands Prix have been won from second or third on the grid – but pole-winner is your safest bet for the win as that’s been the case in 30 of 67 Monaco Grands Prix.
Pole position favorite this weekend is Charles Leclerc and FanDuel is offering odds of -185 for him to win qualifying while Verstappen fetches +250. As for race-winner, Caesars is offering odds of -125 for Leclerc to win, or +260 for Verstappen to win. Note that there’s a chance of rain, the great leveler, on Sunday, and that could see accidents, safety car deployments, and even a surprise winner.
Weather aside, it’s also worth considering the demands of Monaco. Not only does it reward great qualifiers, but drivers at the wheel of cars that can tackle the myriad slow-speed corners that take you up the hill at Beau Rivage, around the Casino, through the stunning tunnel section, veering outside the Swimming Pool and skating through La Rascasse. Scroll down to see our F1 betting predictions…
Monaco Grand Prix Predictions
Ferrari couldn’t quite handle the heat last time round, Leclerc stopping from a likely victory – his first DNF of the season – and Carlos Sainz losing positions with a mistake early on. They head to Monaco with a small but significant advantage as the team in red have a car that can nail slow-speed corners. In Spain, Ferrari showed they were fastest in the tightest bits of Barcelona, so that should repeat itself here.
Backing Leclerc – who hasn’t yet finished a Monaco GP – gets odds of -105 at BetMGM, which really shows his status this weekend. The driver from Monaco did crash out after clinching pole in 2021 and has something of a curse at his home race but, as Daniel Ricciardo showed when he won in 2018, those curses don’t last around these streets. And Leclerc was fastest at practice on Friday, which bodes well for Sunday's race.
Leclerc’s teammate Sainz also took a podium here for Ferrari in 2021 and if you wanted to back him as an outsider, you could back him at +600 for a win via DraftKings. Verstappen is a contender too with odds of +260 for a win via Caesars. His Red Bull counterpart Perez, while strong in Spain, has never fared as well in Monaco – he’d be a real outsider at +1400. Those Red Bull odds for Perez and Verstappen reflect the fact they were off Ferrari's pace in Friday's practice.
Worried about retirements? While Red Bull and Ferrari have had their respective troubles in 2022 so far, neither should be troubled in Monaco due to cooler temperatures and lower-speed demands. The barriers are another question.
Fans of schadenfreude could back Alfa Romeo – who field rookie Guanyu Zhou – as the first team to suffer a retirement or opt for Williams, whose driver Nicholas Latifi hasn’t fared so well in recent races. Fanduel are offering +550 apiece (on separate bets) for either team to have the first car to retire.
Mercedes are stronger in medium- and high-speed sections so they won’t expect to win at Monaco but if you want to back them for a podium, either the in-form George Russell or his teammate Lewis Hamilton fetch +225 via Caesars.
This all depends on the rain. If the clouds strike on Sunday, we could see the race opening to midfield contenders, with Valtteri Bottas expected to score well around here. If you see the clouds turning gray before the race, maybe – just maybe – it’s worth taking a real chance and going for odds of +9500 to back Bottas. The Finn has always run well around these streets and his Alfa Romeo is looking sharp.
Last time out we pointed out that a Safety Car wasn’t likely to fall in Spain and it didn’t – but Safety Car deployments are likely in Monaco – with seven in the last nine races.
Finally, as Verstappen leads the championship, now might be a lucrative time to bet on Ferrari to bounce back and take both titles. For that, you should head to DraftKings for odds of +150 for Ferrari to win the constructors’ title and +165 for Leclerc to win the drivers’ championship.