2023 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

By Adam Thompson Aug 12th, 2025 12:36 PM EDT

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MLB showcases its best and brightest in Seattle on July 10-11, with the 2023 MLB All-Star Game and Home Run Derby. The Derby takes center stage on Monday night, while the Midsummer Classic gets Tuesday night. Gerrit Cole of the Yankees and Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks get the nod as the game's starting pitchers. 

Last year's derby champion, Juan Soto, won't defend his crown. But there is a former champion vying to win his third trophy. Pete Alonso won back-to-back Home Run Derby’s before getting knocked out of the second round by Julio Rodriguez last year. 

Alonso is back in the field and is the MLB betting favorite, but +310 is far better than the -250 odds he had last time around on betting apps. Bookies.com handicapper Adam Thompson breaks down both events and reveals his picks below. 

MLB All-Star Home Run Derby Odds & Picks

It’s unfortunate he takes on hometown entrant and 2022 runner-up Rodriguez in the first round (matchups are determined by actual homers hit this season). That’s going to keep us off both entrants. 

Instead, we’ll slide to Guerrero, who has the best single round and the most homers in a single derby in history – but has yet to claim a title. His father has one, and his “let’s have fun and hit dingers” mentality is perfect. 

Guerrero is only the No. 6 seed in the field, but we're backing Guerrero To Win (+370) and Advance To Finals (+190).

Pick: Guerrero +370 at DraftKings

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MLB All-Star Game Picks

The last time the National League won the Midsummer Classic, Melky Cabrera of the Giants was the game MVP and Justin Verlander was the AL starter. 

There’s no real rhyme or reason why the junior circuit keeps winning. The general consensus is that the AL has the better hitters, while has the NL superior pitchers. But the AL almost always wins, and the scores have generally been lower. 

We’re looking for the NL to break the streak this year. Why? Because the players replaced due to injury is longer and more important for the AL. Mike Trout and Aaron Judge are both out. 

Shane McClanahan and his 11-1 record for the Rays, he’s out as well. Yordan Alvarez won’t play, either. The NL’s lone replacement so far is Clayton Kershaw, who is replaced by Pirates closer David Bednar and his 1.44 ERA. This is the year the NL bounces back. 

Pick: National League 

Odds: +100 at DraftKings

All-Star Game Over/Under Pick

In recent history, good pitching has outperformed good hitting. Over the last 16 years, only one All-Star game has totaled more than nine runs. Only 6.8 runs on average have been scored in that long span. The last three ASG’s have provided 5, 7 and 7 runs. 

When it comes to runs scored, T-Mobile Park has the lowest Ballpark Rating in all of baseball. Give each of the best pitchers in the game one inning to showcase their thing, and expect another low-scoring battle here.

Pick: Under 7.5 -110 at DraftKings

About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.