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2023 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 3 mins

2023 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

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MLB showcases its best and brightest in Seattle on July 10-11, with the 2023 MLB All-Star Game and Home Run Derby. The Derby takes center stage on Monday night, while the Midsummer Classic gets Tuesday night. Gerrit Cole of the Yankees and Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks get the nod as the game's starting pitchers. 

Last year's derby champion, Juan Soto, won't defend his crown. But there is a former champion vying to win his third trophy. Pete Alonso won back-to-back Home Run Derby’s before getting knocked out of the second round by Julio Rodriguez last year. 

Alonso is back in the field and is the MLB betting favorite, but +310 is far better than the -250 odds he had last time around on betting apps. Bookies.com handicapper Adam Thompson breaks down both events and reveals his picks below. 

MLB All-Star Home Run Derby Odds & Picks

Pete Alonso+310
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.+370
Julio Rodriguez+400
Luis Robert Jr.+550
Adolis Garcia+700
Randy Arozarena+1100
Mookie Betts+1000
Adley Rutschman+1800

It’s unfortunate he takes on hometown entrant and 2022 runner-up Rodriguez in the first round (matchups are determined by actual homers hit this season). That’s going to keep us off both entrants. 

Instead, we’ll slide to Guerrero, who has the best single round and the most homers in a single derby in history – but has yet to claim a title. His father has one, and his “let’s have fun and hit dingers” mentality is perfect. 

Guerrero is only the No. 6 seed in the field, but we're backing Guerrero To Win (+370) and Advance To Finals (+190) as insurance

Pick: Guerrero +370 at DraftKings

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MLB All-Star Game Picks

The last time the National League won the Midsummer Classic, Melky Cabrera of the Giants was the game MVP and Justin Verlander was the AL starter. 

There’s no real rhyme or reason why the junior circuit keeps winning. The general consensus is that the AL has the better hitters, while has the NL superior pitchers. But the AL almost always wins, and the scores have generally been lower. 

We’re looking for the NL to break the streak this year. Why? Because the players replaced due to injury is longer and more important for the AL. Mike Trout and Aaron Judge are both out. 

Shane McClanahan and his 11-1 record for the Rays, he’s out as well. Yordan Alvarez won’t play, either. The NL’s lone replacement so far is Clayton Kershaw, who is replaced by Pirates closer David Bednar and his 1.44 ERA. This is the year the NL bounces back. 

Pick: National League 

Odds: +100 at DraftKings

All-Star Game Over/Under Pick

In recent history, good pitching has outperformed good hitting. Over the last 16 years, only one All-Star game has totaled more than nine runs. Only 6.8 runs on average have been scored in that long span. The last three ASG’s have provided 5, 7 and 7 runs. 

When it comes to runs scored, T-Mobile Park has the lowest Ballpark Rating in all of baseball. Give each of the best pitchers in the game one inning to showcase their thing, and expect another low-scoring battle here.

Pick: Under 7.5 -110 at DraftKings

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.