Sunday’s final round at the Tournament of Champions was supposed to be a formality. Collin Morikawa led by six shots entering the day and his live golf odds reached -20000 after 10 holes. He collapsed in epic fashion, with Jon Rahm blazing ahead to shoot 63 for a two-shot win. 

It couldn’t possibly have set the tone any better for what promises to be another insane year of golf betting, filled with massive odds swings and unpredictable finishes every week. And we’re strapped in for a massive spring slate leading into the Masters April 6-9, continuing this week at the Sony Open in Hawaii. 

Some in the TOC field will make the short trip from Maui to Honolulu, while dozens of others are set for their 2023 debut at Waialae Country Club.

Tom Kim is the betting favorite at +1100 on sports betting apps after a T-5 finish at Kapalua. The 20-year-old Korean has already risen to No. 14 in the world and looks like a major player for years to come having already won twice. 

Jordan Spieth and Sungjae Im, both of whom finished T-13 in Maui, are next at +1400 and Brian Harman is next at +1600. 

Hideki Matsuyama rounds out the top five at +1800. 

2023 Sony Open Odds

2023 Sony Open Expert Picks & Predictions 

Hayden Buckley Top-10 Finish 

Odds: +550 at DraftKings

Buckley is coming off a solid rookie season, in which he retained his Tour card for 2023. That’s really all that matters your first calendar year in the big show. Now the goals are a little bit higher and Buckley gets a great chance to start the new year strong at a track that suits his game very well. 

The Missouri grad made five consecutive cuts to finish the fall portion of the new season, with three top-20s or better – including a T-5 at the ZoZo Championship. He hasn’t teed it up since the RSM Classic in late November, but he had the exact same offseason last year and finished T-12 when he got going again at the 2022 Sony Open. 

Buckley isn’t super long off the tee by today’s standards, but he’s very accurate with the driver and hits a ton of greens in regulation. And he’s seen this course before after making his first trip to Waialae last year. There’s a lot to like here, and we’re taking Buckley for a top-10 finish at +600 odds on betting sites. 

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Sony Open Betting Tips

The floral shirts are out and the island vibes are going strong, but this week is a completely different test than the one players saw last week at Kapalua. For starters, this is a much tighter test as a par-70 stretching just over 7,000 yards on the scorecard. That’s the biggest difference compared to the TOC, which features the most forgiving fairways on Tour. 

Distance isn’t a must this week, but accuracy is. It is indeed a second-shot golf course and these greens are tiny compared to the surfaces at Kapalua. It takes an above-average irons player or a great scrambler to win at this place, and bettors should place more emphasis on the short game than most weeks. 

There’s plenty of course history and Strokes Gained data to go off of. The challenge here is trying to identify current form for a large number of players we haven’t seen in two months. We prefer to go on a players’ overall track record as opposed to what they did in the fall schedule, and rely heavily on those who’ve proven to be consistently accurate off the tee and sharp with the irons. 

2023 Sony Open Time, Date & TV

When: Thursday-Sunday, Jan. 12-15

Where: Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, Hawaii

TV: Golf Channel, NBC

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