President Joe Biden has the primary race cornered as he looks almost certain to top the Democratic Party’s ticket once again.

The Dems are coalescing behind the 80-year-old incumbent, tipped at 4/11 (-275) in the 2024 Presidential Election odds to clinch the party’s nomination with top UK bookmaker Ladbrokes.

California Governor Gavin Newsom 7/1 (+700) and former first lady Michelle Obama 11/1 (+1100) — Biden’s biggest threats on the political betting odds board according to the oddsmakers—insist they aren’t planning a primary challenge in 2024. 

Whereas Vice President Kamala Harris 12/1 (+1200) is hitching her wagon to Biden for a White House return.

2024 Democratic Nominee Odds

Odds via Ladbrokes on Monday, October 23, 2023 and subject to change.

US laws prohibit betting on political events. However, it is legal across the pond, and immediately following the results of the 2020 US Elections, European betting sites rolled out 2024 US Elections markets. 

American pundits and news media outlets will often refer to the politics odds— known also as “novelty” or “special” markets—from our European neighbours. 

And should politics betting ever become legal in America, you can bet US-facing sportsbooks and betting apps (in the states where sports betting is legalized) will pick up these markets, too. 

Biden Corners Democratic Primary Market

Biden, 80, is the oldest sitting president in US history, and should he run and win a second term in 2024, he’ll become the oldest commander in chief at 82.

There has never been a primary challenger that has beaten an eligible sitting president for the party’s nomination, and the last president to face a credible primary challenge was George H.W. Bush, who was challenged by Pat Buchanan in the GOP race before losing to Bill Clinton in the 1992 general election.

It is this strength of incumbency that continues to underpin Biden’s favorable outlook, despite growing concerns over his age, health, and his administration’s economic and foreign policy decisions that are dividing the nation.

That said, Biden’s odds in the 2024 US Presidential Election market have declined recently. He’s dropped to 2/1 (+200) to win a second term, falling behind ex-POTUS Donald Trump who is the current favorite at 13/8  (+163) to win next year.

Biden’s odds have also been trending negatively in the Democratic party nominee betting market since May.

The shortest odds currently available for Biden are -275 with Ladbrokes – marking a significant drop from a high of -500 back in April with this same sportsbook. 

RFK Jr. Drops Out

Oddsmakers appear reluctant to shorten Biden’s odds right now, even though the Dems look to be outwardly united behind the octogenarian incumbent and his path to the nomination is clear of legitimate opposition. 

Only Marianne Williamson, a longshot candidate at 150/1 (+15000), is openly challenging Biden. However, as opposition goes, she’s been largely ineffective, garnering less than 7% support in the primary.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the scion of one of the most famous Democratic families in the country, launched a bid in April but he has since dropped out of the Democratic primary race to launch an independent campaign. 

The attorney and activist made the announcement while speaking to a crowd in front of the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on Monday, October 9.

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Biden Falling In The Polls

Most national polls this year have shown Biden and Trump tied in a hypothetical general election rematch. However, recently, several polls are starting to show Trump nudging ahead of Biden ever so slightly. 

Trump was revealed to have a four-point lead over Biden in a nationwide poll conducted by CNBC-All American Economic survey. 

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released on Thursday also showed Trump similarly ahead of Biden in seven key swing states that are likely to decide the 2024 general election. 

Around 50% of voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina Pennsylvania and Wisconsin held negative views of Biden’s handling of the economy – or “Bidenomics” as the White House often terms Biden’s economic agenda. 

In an Emerson College poll that dropped on Friday, Trump was found nudging slightly ahead of Biden (47% to 45%, respectively) with young voters. In 2020, young voters were a key demographic for Biden and the Democrats.

In addition, numerous polls among Democratic voters this year have revealed an apathy towards Biden as the 2024 Democratic nominee. 

A CNN poll released in September showed that almost two thirds of Democratic voters said they wanted a different candidate as the party’s nominee, with about half of them citing his age as their biggest concern. 

The next biggest concern to register on the survey were his health and mental fitness for the job.

If Not Biden, Then Who?

Any potential Democratic candidates have demurred, partly because an open challenge to Biden would run afoul of the party’s establishment, which appears to be banking on incumbency to remain in power. 

In addition, there is a fear that challenging Biden’s bid would help pave the way for a Trump victory next year.

Nevertheless, bookmakers are lobbying several potential Democratic candidates at the sportsbook exchange — most notably, Newsom and Ms. Obama.

Arguably, Newsom is a more realistic candidate than Ms. Obama, who has repeatedly reiterated her lack of interest in running for the presidency. 

Publicly, Newsom is ardently supporting Biden’s bid for 2024. However, his actions have led some analysts and pundits to believe that he is positioning himself to slide into the presidential race – either in a late open challenge scenario or as a backup plan in the event the unexpected happens. 

Most recently, Newsom drew attention by agreeing to debate Florida Governor Ron DeSantis – his Republican opposite and another candidate that is keen to put himself out there, ready to go just in case GOP frontrunner Trump bows out or is unable to run due to his mounting legal woes. 

The televised debate between the ideologically opposed governors will take place in Georgia on November 30, with Fox News’ Sean Hannity hosting the highly anticipated 90-minute showdown.

NOTE: Betting on politics is not legalized in the U.S. but is heavily bet on in Europe. For more info on political betting in general as well as coverage of the latest news affecting the odds, be sure to check out our guide to betting on politics.