Election Odds Indicate Biden Victory All-But-Certain Now
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The 2020 U.S. Presidential race is all but over short of certification of electoral votes, according to the latest odds posted by British bookakers Friday morning.
Democratic challenger and presumed President-elect Joe Biden moved from -1430 Thursday afternoon to -5000 after taking the lead in both Georgia and Pennsylvania. If current vote trends hold, he’s on pace to equal Donald Trump’s electoral college margin of 306-232.
A wild election night saw odds careen toward Trump only to slingshot back to Biden by early Wednesday morning. But since Wednesday, as the record number of mail-in ballots due to the pandemic were counted, Biden’s odds continued to surge.
There are still more votes to be counted in critical undecided states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina, but the trends in Pennsylvania and Georgia point to those races getting called perhaps today for Biden (though Georgia is likely headed to a recount). Additional results released from Nevada and Arizona could add clarity in those states as well.
Early Thursday evening, Trump declared himself the winner and the victim of massive voter fraud, promoting unsubstantiated claims that caused many networks to break away from his remarks and leading a few Republicans to distance themselves from his allegations. Trump and his team are promising a court fight.
Trump team saying election not over, including:— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 6, 2020
"In Nevada, there appear to be thousands of individuals who improperly cast mail ballots."
No. No. There are not.
Bogus list they sent to DOJ contains military folks who cast absentees. And at least one person I know.
Even though political betting is not offered at any legal or regulated sportsbook in the United States, the European counterparts to US sportsbooks have robust betting markets, and betting odds were a huge part of the conversation on major networks.
2020 Presidential Election Odds
Odds via 888sport's UK-facing betting site and subject to change.
States Of Play
Biden grabbed the lead just before 9 a.m. Friday when a batch of results came in from Philadelphia. More than 100,000 votes remain outstanding in the state, but they have been coming back 3-to-1 for Biden even in Trump-friendly counties, a by-product of Democrats promoting vote-by-mail as a safe alternative in a pandemic and Trump’s team encouraging in-person voting. That created a so-called “red-mirage.”
BREAKING: Joe Biden has taken the lead in PA by 5,587 votes.— Abby D. Phillip (@abbydphillip) November 6, 2020
Trump led by as much as 700,000 votes at one point. That’s all gone now, and bookmakers who had Biden as a -3335 favorite pulled the odds as soon as the Democrat took the lead in the state. If the next few batches of results in the state continue this trend, expect the race to be called.
The governor of Georgia has mocked Biden’s efforts during the campaign to try to win the state as foolish. Instead, the Democrats put the full-court press on and it clearly paid huge dividends. In the early morning hours, when Clayton County reported its mail-in results, Biden completed his long march into the lead. He held a 1,000-vote lead with about 10,000 votes still to be counted. The results had been coming in 2-to-1 or better for Biden.
Well I woke up, and as expected, Clayton Co. ballots have put Biden in the lead in GA by 1,097 votes. Gwinnett should extend that lead considerably.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 6, 2020
Not lost in the stunning development of Clayton County putting Biden in the lead is the fact that the late civil rights icon, John Lewis, represented that county in Congress. Additionally, Biden’s strength in the state has buoyed the Democrats hopes for control of the US Senate as both races are headed to January run-offs. Should the Democrats sweep, the Senate at worst would be a 50-50 tie with a Vice President Kamala Harris breaking ties.
Oddsmakers have Biden at -1667 to win the state.
Biden is -10000 to win Nevada and its six electoral votes. His lead swelled to just under 12,000 with the only results that were reported during the day. Another batch of results are expected today, and if they, as expected, continue to add to Biden’s lead, expect the state to be called.
Biden is favored still in Arizona, at -560, though those are his worst odds of any remaining state. It is still not known if the massive cache of remaining mail-in ballots will be enough for Trump to overtake Biden’s lead. Trump needs about 60% of the remaining votes to even the race, but the 11 electoral votes in the state may come too late.
Of all the remaining states to be declared, Trump is in the best position here, up 77K votes. There are still hundreds of thousands of votes to be counted – from strong Biden areas – and mail-in votes received after Election Day but mailed on time will still need to be counted. No odds are listed for the state. A Senate seat and perhaps control of the Senate may be in the balance, too.