The 2024 US presidential odds are in constant flux at sportsbooks with election day just five months away.  As things currently stand, former POTUS Donald Trump is leading the political betting market, holding a commanding edge over to win back the presidency. 

Trump was dominating incumbent president Joe Biden in the quest for a White House return, but the game has now changed. With Biden's announcement that he will not see re-election, Vice President Kamala Harris has surged as the top contender on the Democratic side. 

Trusted UK bookmaker 888sport has Trump priced at -200 to win next year’s US Elections, putting him far ahead of Harris who is tipped at +200 on the politics odds board. Trump's odds suggest a 67.7% chance he will win back the U.S. presidency in November. 

2024 U.S. Presidential Odds

Presidential Election odds via Ladbrokes as of January 12, 2024; political betting is not legal in the United States

Trump built a massive lead over Biden following the June 27 debate between the two leading candidates. While Trump was dinged for telling a copious amount of half-truths and incorrect statements, Biden's seeming inability to string together coherent sentences caused a panic on the Democratic side of things. 

That lead increased dramatically following the attempt on his life by a gunman at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania. Trump's ear was grazed by one of eight bullets fired in his direction. The photos from the chaos will likely be embedded in US political history. 

But now Biden is out, replaced by his VP Harris. She'll offer voters a far younger option, though the progressive viewpoints from the former California senator may not sway as many voters as needed. 

Still, Harris' odds are now at +200, which is far better than Biden's +400 odds prior to his announcement. Based on implied probability, that gives Harris a 33.3% chance of winning the presidency, compared to 20% for Biden. 

Trump's odds shrunk from -275 to -200, but he's still the strong favorite with an implied probability of 66.7%. 

Harris has been endorsed by Biden and other top Democrats, but not all of them. The chance is still out there that she won't receive the official nomination from her party. The odds reflect outside challengers. 

Michelle Obama tops the list. The former First Lady has stated no interest in running, but that was before Biden dropped out. She's at +1200 (7.7%), with her odds more than doubling from last week when she was at +2500. 

No other potential candidates have odds lower than +4000, but new names have popped onto the list in the last 48 hours. 

California governor Gavin Newsom and former First Lady and New York senator Hillary Clinton are each now at +4000 while Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer is +5000. 

Newly named Trump running mate J.D. Vance is at +5000, a semi-morbid choice on the Republican side. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is also at +5000 as his odds continue to go in the wrong direction. 

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro is another Democrat on the board at +6600, and Indiana Democrat Pete Buttigieg is +10000. 

Biden, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren (herself 75 years of age) and former UN Ambassador and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley (+25000) are still on the board as massive underdogs. 

Although US laws prohibit betting on politics, immediately following the results of the 2020 US Elections, UK betting sites across the pond – where betting on political events is legal – rolled out 2024 US Elections markets. 

American pundits and news media outlets will often refer to these political odds from our European neighbors – known also as “novelty” or “special” markets. 

Should betting on politics ever be allowed states-side, you can bet US-facing sportsbooks and betting apps (in the states where sports betting is legalized) will be all over it. 

Trump Favored Over Democrats

Whether it's Biden, Harris or anyone else, the politics betting markets are skewed towards Trump in November – a finding that is widely echoed by the latest national polls. However, the punditocracy is urging caution, predicting a much closer race than the odds would suggest and one that could go either way.

Depending on the many, many polls, Trump has anywhere from a 1% to an 8% lead over the Dems. 

The more worrying concern for Democrats is the fact that Trump has been recently shown to have leads across all the major battleground states that may ultimately decide the 2024 US Elections. He won't likely need to win them all to re-gain the Oval Office. 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

A third-party candidate has never won the presidential election, but RFK Jr. hopes to become the first outsider in history to pull off the unimaginable feat, ushering with it a new era in American politics, both domestically and globally.

Many surveys on the 2024 presidential race noted voters’ disenchantment with a potential Trump vs Biden rematch and a strong interest in third-party candidates at the same time. However, the attempt on Trump's life has seemingly ensured a two-man race once again, with no room at the table for an independent voice. 

Among the most discontented are young voters according to a survey from the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School which revealed a 12% decline among them to vote in the upcoming US Elections compared to four years ago. 

Some of the primary concerns cited in the survey: the age of both party’s geriatric frontrunners; disapproval with the incumbent Democrats’ handling of key issues, including the economy, the border crisis, gun violence and geopolitical conflicts; and a Republican agenda that is too conservative for their progressive liberal values.

Can I Bet On The 2024 US Elections?

Today, legal US sportsbooks are operating in many states where sports betting has been legalized. However, US laws currently do not permit betting on politics in any of these states.  

By contrast, betting on political events is legal with bookmakers across the pond in the UK and in several other European countries. These betting sites include well-established brands Ladbrokes and bet365 for example, which rolled out 2024 US Elections odds immediately on the heels of the last general election in 2020.

The latest 2024 US Election odds – also known as “novelty” or “special” markets – are increasingly used by pundits and the media in their coverage of political events – a trend that falls in line with the growth of online sports gambling in America. 

Typically, these politics odds will cover several aspects of the general election— from Republican to Democratic nominee winner odds, vice president nominee odds, election winner odds, winning party odds and more.

Should betting on politics become legal in America in the future, the public is likely to be game. You can bet on it.