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2024 US Presidential Election Odds: Trump Leads Biden As Betting Favorite

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com

Isla Knightley  | 7 mins

2024 US Presidential Election Odds: Trump Leads Biden As Betting Favorite

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The 2024 US presidential odds are in constant flux at the sportsbook exchange with election day just 11 months away.  As things currently stand, former POTUS Donald Trump is leading the political betting market, holding a commanding edge over incumbent president Joe Biden in the betting for a White House return.

Trusted UK bookmaker Ladbrokes have Trump priced at just 5/4 (+125) to win next year’s US Elections, putting him conspicuously ahead of Biden who is tipped at 9/4 (+225) on the politics odds board.

Former UN Ambassador and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley’s 7/2 (+350) odds make her the third-best bet after Trump and Biden. While California governor Gavin Newsom and former First Lady Michelle Obama – both of which haven’t officially entered the race or shown any inclination to do so– come in as the joint fourth best bets with 16/1 (+1600) odds, respectively. 

Elsewhere, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the scion of one of the most famous political families in the country, broke rank with the Democratic party. He now represents the Independent bid in the race to the White House and with odds of 22/1 (+2200), he registers as the fifth best bet.  

Although US laws prohibit betting on politics, immediately following the results of the 2020 US Elections, UK betting sites across the pond – where betting on political events is legal – rolled out 2024 US Elections markets. 

American pundits and news media outlets will often refer to these political odds from our European neighbors – known also as “novelty” or “special” markets. 

Should betting on politics ever be allowed states-side, you can bet US-facing sportsbooks and betting apps (in the states where sports betting is legalized) will be all over it. 

2024 U.S. Presidential Odds

CandidateOctoberDecemberJanuaryImplied Probability
Donald Trump+175+138+12544.4%
Joe Biden+188+225+22530.8%
Nikky Haley+2000+550+35022.2%
Gavin Newsom+1000+800+16005.9%
Michelle Obama+1600+2000+16005.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.+2000+2500+22004.3%
Vivek Ramaswamy+4000+6600+25003.8%
Ron DeSantis+2200+4000+40002.4%

Presidential Election odds via Ladbrokes as of January 12, 2024; political betting is not legal in the United States

Below, we take a closer look at the general election odds with a particular view towards the projected 2020 rematch between Trump and Biden in November’s general election and the Independent vote spearheaded by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Trump vs Biden Rematch

The markets currently point to a Trump vs Biden 2020 rematch – a scenario backed by Trump’s astronomical lead over his rivals in the GOP nomination race, and equally, by the absence of a legitimate Democratic challenger to Biden’s renomination bid. 

Trump is a country mile ahead in the Republican primary polling aggregates with an average of 60.4% as of Jan. 11 according to FiveThirtyEight. Florida governor Ron DeSantis rings in at 12.1%, Haley at 11.7% and Vivek Ramaswamy at 4.3%. 

Meanwhile, Biden registers with a 69.8% national polling aggregate while Michelle Williamson (8.1%) and Dean Phillips (3.5%) represent his only official challengers in the Democratic primary.

Trump Favored Over Biden

The politics betting markets are skewed towards Trump in a hypothetical rematch against Biden in November – a finding that is widely echoed by the latest national polls. However, the punditocracy is urging caution, predicting a much closer race than the odds would suggest and one that could go either way.

A Wall Street Journal poll last month showed Trump four points ahead of Biden (47% to 43%) nationally.

Whereas The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average more recently showed Trump with a narrower 1.2% (44.3% to 43.1%) lead over Biden. 

The more worrying concern for Democrats is the fact that Trump has been recently shown to have leads over Biden across seven battleground states that may ultimately decide the 2024 US Elections, six of which Biden won in 2020. 

A Morning Consult and Bloomberg News poll published in Dec. 2023 found Trump was leading Biden by an average of 5.28% in the swing states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

Trump’s biggest leads were recorded in North Carolina (11 points) and Georgia (7 points). Conversely, his smallest leads were recorded in Michigan (4 points) and Arizona (3 points). 

Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraphhas been tracking the six swing states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania in a poll since October, 2023. And in their most recent edition (Jan. 8, 2024), Trump was found leading Biden in all six states for the first time.

According to this poll, Trump leads Biden 41% to 35% in Arizona; 45% to 34% in Florida; 42% to 34% in Georgia; and 37% to 33% in North Carolina. 

The closest battleground states to emerge were Michigan, where Trump leads 39% to 37% over Biden, and Pennsylvania, where he has a narrow 1-point lead (40% to 39%) over Biden.

Additionally, the Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey produced interesting data regarding Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Independent bid.  In that, he could be more of thorn in Biden’s side than previously anticipated. 

In all six swing states, Biden 2020 and Trump 2020 voters were asked if they would vote for RFK Jr. instead this time around. The results showed that more Biden 2020 voters across all states were inclined to do so, with the highest numbers emerging in Florida (13% vs 4%) and Georgia (13% vs 2%). 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

A third-party candidate has never won the presidential election, but RFK Jr. hopes to become the first outsider in history to pull off the unimaginable feat, ushering with it a new era in American politics, both domestically and globally.

Many surveys on the 2024 presidential race have noted voters’ disenchantment with a potential Trump vs Biden rematch and a strong interest in third-party candidates at the same time. 

Among the most discontented are young voters according to a survey from the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School which revealed a 12% decline among them to vote in the upcoming US Elections compared to four years ago. 

Some of the primary concerns cited in the survey: the age of both party’s geriatric frontrunners; disapproval with the incumbent Democrats’ handling of key issues, including the economy, climate change, gun violence and geopolitical conflicts; and a Republican agenda that is too conservative for their progressive liberal values.

Kennedy is best positioned among third-party candidates to capitalize on the widespread apathy for Washington’s political establishment – an outlook backed by a recent Gallup poll, which showed Kennedy with a favorability rating of over 50%, the highest among all the presidential candidates.  

A significant independent vote would certainly act as a wake-up call, regardless if it wins outright or not. Moreover, neutral observers argue such an eventuality is likely to help Trump rather than Biden.

Can I Bet On The 2024 US Elections?

Today, legal US sportsbooks are operating in many states where sports betting has been legalized. However, US laws currently do not permit betting on politics in any of these states.  

By contrast, betting on political events is legal with bookmakers across the pond in the UK and in several other European countries. These betting sites include well-established brands Ladbrokes and bet365 for example, which rolled out 2024 US Elections odds immediately on the heels of the last general election in 2020.

The latest 2024 US Election odds – also known as “novelty” or “special” markets – are increasingly used by pundits and the media in their coverage of political events – a trend that falls in line with the growth of online sports gambling in America. 

Typically, these politics odds will cover several aspects of the general election— from Republican to Democratic nominee winner odds, vice president nominee odds, election winner odds, winning party odds and more.

Should betting on politics become legal in America in the future, the public is likely to be game. You can bet on it.

About the Author

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com
Isla Knightley
Isla, a sports journalist and betting expert, covers several sports, including the NFL, as well politics. She joined Bookies.com in 2021 after contributing to other betting sites.