By Michael Kates | Feb 26th, 2021 | 5 mins

2024 Republican Nominee Odds: Trump Still GOP Gold Standard

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The conservative/GOP world is focused this week on the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando, Florida, where its panel discussions rehashing the “stolen election” narrative and cancel culture serve as a warmup to the main event: former President Donald Trump’s first public speaking engagement since leaving office.

As if the second impeachment trial of Trump (and the 43 GOP senators who voted to acquit) didn’t already establish who remains in firm control of the Republican Party, this week’s conference cements it. Trump improved again to +400 from +500 in 2024 GOP nominee odds listed at UK bookmaker Ladbrokes.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Trump’s former VP, Mike Pence, will not be in attendance at CPAC. Utah Sen. Mitt Romney and Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, both of whom supported impeachment and removal, are persona non grata. Even Trump’s former UN ambassador, Nikki Haley, is opting out. She has tried to straddle both sides of the Trump fence in terms of what happened on Jan. 6.

Plenty of 2024 GOP hopefuls will be there, though, including Trump’s most ardent defenders: Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Perhaps that will help their odds, which have for the most part remained flat for the 2024 nomination. Interestingly, Hawley’s odds fell from +2000 to +2500 this week while Cruz, fresh off the Cancun trip fiasco and his rapidly changing stories, remained steady at +1600.

2024 Republican Nominee Odds

Odds current through Feb. 26, 2021

One thing we learned from the ups and downs of the 2020 tracker is how quickly fortunes can change. We also know that 2024 is an eternity away when it comes to the political landscape.

Pence has declared that he and Trump maintain a good relationship, but his absence from CPAC and falling odds are a clear indication that, at the very least, the Trump GOP has not forgiven him for not throwing out Electoral College votes. He fell to +1000 and behind Haley for the first time. Haley improved from +800 to +700.

Haley also saw her 2024 Presidential odds tickup to +1400 – again ahead of Pence – as the second-choice in the GOP lane. DeSantis, who has tied himself to Trump since running for governor in 2018, moved up again, to +2000.

2024 US Presidential Odds

2024 Presidential Election odds via Ladbrokes as of Feb. 26, 2021

Ladbrokes lists the Democrats at -110 to win the 2024 election; Republicans are +100. Biden and VP Kamala Harris have equal odds of +200 to be the 2024 Democratic nominee, with Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg next in the queue at +2000. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains at +2500.

Harris remains the overall Presidential odds favorite at +350, an acknowledgment of Biden’s age entering office (78) and questions as to whether he will serve more than one term. Keep in mind, he’d be 82 to start a second term. Ronald Reagan was just shy of 74 when he was reelected.

Trump’s odds have stabilized since a tumble after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. He was +700 on Jan. 5, fell to +1000 and is remains at +800. Donald Trump Jr. has not improved on his +10000 odds.

A reminder: Political betting is not legal in the United States, but it is over in Europe. Just because US sportsbooks didn’t offer odds in 2020, that it didn’t stop many networks from citing the betting markets leading up to and throughout 2020 Election Night (and the days that followed).