2024 US Presidential Election Odds: Trump Leads Harris As Election Day Looms

By Adam Thompson Nov 4th, 2024 2:51 PM EDT

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The 2024 US presidential election day is now just hours away, and Republican nominee Donald Trump is favored over Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. 

Trusted UK bookmaker 888sport has Trump priced at -143, suggesting a 58.8% chance of winning the U.S. presidency. Harris is now at +125, suggesting a 44.4% shot. Sportsbooks add "juice" to their odds so the overall percentage total rises above 100% and skews odds in its favor. 

The 2024 US presidential odds are in constant flux at sportsbooks, but things have gotten interesting. After spending weeks with the same odds to win the presidency, Trump has a solid-but-not-insurmountable lead over Harris the day before Election Day. 

2024 U.S. Presidential Odds

Presidential Election odds via Ladbrokes as of January 12, 2024; political betting is not legal in the United States

Following the Democratic National Committee and Harris' long speech hailed by many media outlets as a gamechanger, it was Trump's odds that actually improved. But after the first debate, also hailed as a victory for Harris by the mainstream media, the VP's odds actually did improve, if only by a blip. 

Prior to that, Trump built a massive lead over Biden following the June 27 debate between the two leading candidates. While Trump was dinged for telling a copious amount of half-truths and incorrect statements, Biden's seeming inability to string together coherent sentences caused a panic on the Democratic side of things. That lead increased dramatically following the attempt on his life by a gunman at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania. Trump's ear was grazed by one of eight bullets fired in his direction. The photos from the chaos will likely be embedded in US political history. 

But Biden was replaced by his own party, for his own VP. Harris offers voters a far younger option, and while her ultra-progressive viewpoints from the former California senator was expected to turn off some, it's apparently a more-appealing option for many than four more years of The Donald. 

Other US Presidential Contenders

Several longshot candidates were officially taken off the board a couple of weeks before Election Day. The final two longshots were wiped off over the weekend. Trump vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance, as well as President Biden, remained on the board until the 11th hour. But now there are only two. 

South Carolina Republican governor Nikki Haley and former First Lady Michelle Obama were the previous final outliers to be taken out of the mix. 

Can I Bet On The 2024 US Elections?

Although US laws prohibit betting on politics, immediately following the results of the 2020 US Elections, UK betting sites across the pond – where betting on political events is legal – rolled out 2024 US Elections markets. 

American pundits and news media outlets will often refer to these political odds from our European neighbors – known also as “novelty” or “special” markets. 

Should betting on politics ever be allowed states-side, you can bet US-facing sportsbooks and betting apps (in the states where sports betting is legalized) will be all over it. 

Today, legal US sportsbooks are operating in many states where sports betting has been legalized. However, US laws currently do not permit betting on politics in any of these states.  

By contrast, betting on political events is legal with bookmakers across the pond in the UK and in several other European countries. These betting sites include well-established brands Ladbrokes and bet365 for example, which rolled out 2024 US Elections odds immediately on the heels of the last general election in 2020.

The latest 2024 US Election odds – also known as “novelty” or “special” markets – are increasingly used by pundits and the media in their coverage of political events – a trend that falls in line with the growth of online sports gambling in America. 

Typically, these politics odds will cover several aspects of the general election— from Republican to Democratic nominee winner odds, vice president nominee odds, election winner odds, winning party odds and more.

Should betting on politics become legal in America in the future, the public is likely to be game. You can bet on it.

About the Author

Adam Thompson

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Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.