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2024 US Presidential Election Odds: Mere Weeks To Election Day, Trump Grows Lead Over Harris

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

2024 US Presidential Election Odds: Mere Weeks To Election Day, Trump Grows Lead Over Harris

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The 2024 US presidential odds are in constant flux at sportsbooks, but things have gotten interesting. After spending weeks with the same odds to win the presidency, Republican nominee Donald Trump has now taken a sizeable lead over Vice President Kamala Harris with two weeks to go before Election Day. 

With both conventions and presidential and vice presidential debates in the past, Trump and Harris were tied in U.S. presidential markets. Lately, however, momentum has pushed Trump into favored status. 

Trusted UK bookmaker 888sport has Trump prices at -175, suggesting a 63.6% chance of winning the U.S. presidency. Harris is now at +150, suggesting a 40% shot. Sportsbooks add "juice" to their odds so the overall percentage total rises above 100% and skews odds in its favor. 

2024 U.S. Presidential Odds

CandidateJuly 22August 15August 26September 12October 7October 21Implied Probability
Donald Trump-175+100-110+100-110-17563.6%
Kamala Harris+138-125-110-125-110+15040%

Presidential Election odds via Ladbrokes as of January 12, 2024; political betting is not legal in the United States

Following the Democratic National Committee and Harris' long speech hailed by many media outlets as a gamechanger, it was Trump's odds that actually improved. But after the first debate, also hailed as a victory for Harris by the mainstream media, the VP's odds actually did improve, if only by a blip. 

Harris' long speech at the DNC ignited her base while the media mostly fawned at the biggest moment of her political career so far. But detractors said she avoided specifics on how, or if, she'll move on from many of the policies she's backed over the last four years. 

In fact, Harris' odds dipped slightly after the speech, from -125 (55.65) to -110 (52.4%). Trump's odds improved to -110 from +100. But now the script has flipped. 

Trump built a massive lead over Biden following the June 27 debate between the two leading candidates. While Trump was dinged for telling a copious amount of half-truths and incorrect statements, Biden's seeming inability to string together coherent sentences caused a panic on the Democratic side of things. That lead increased dramatically following the attempt on his life by a gunman at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania. Trump's ear was grazed by one of eight bullets fired in his direction. The photos from the chaos will likely be embedded in US political history. 

But Biden was replaced by his own party, for his own VP. Harris offers voters a far younger option, and while her ultra-progressive viewpoints from the former California senator was expected to turn off some, it's apparently a more-appealing option for many than four more years of The Donald. 

Other US Presidential Contenders

Several longshot candidates have been officially taken off the board, leaving just two others remaining. 

Trump's vice presidential nominee, J.D. Vance is posted at +10000, or 1%. And President Biden remains on the board at +50000 (0.2%). 

South Carolina Republican governor Nikki Haley and former First Lady Michelle Obama were the final outliers to be taken out of the mix. 

Can I Bet On The 2024 US Elections?

Although US laws prohibit betting on politics, immediately following the results of the 2020 US Elections, UK betting sites across the pond – where betting on political events is legal – rolled out 2024 US Elections markets. 

American pundits and news media outlets will often refer to these political odds from our European neighbors – known also as “novelty” or “special” markets. 

Should betting on politics ever be allowed states-side, you can bet US-facing sportsbooks and betting apps (in the states where sports betting is legalized) will be all over it. 

Today, legal US sportsbooks are operating in many states where sports betting has been legalized. However, US laws currently do not permit betting on politics in any of these states.  

By contrast, betting on political events is legal with bookmakers across the pond in the UK and in several other European countries. These betting sites include well-established brands Ladbrokes and bet365 for example, which rolled out 2024 US Elections odds immediately on the heels of the last general election in 2020.

The latest 2024 US Election odds – also known as “novelty” or “special” markets – are increasingly used by pundits and the media in their coverage of political events – a trend that falls in line with the growth of online sports gambling in America. 

Typically, these politics odds will cover several aspects of the general election— from Republican to Democratic nominee winner odds, vice president nominee odds, election winner odds, winning party odds and more.

Should betting on politics become legal in America in the future, the public is likely to be game. You can bet on it.

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.