2024 Republican Nominee Odds: Trump Back In Front Of DeSantis
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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' climb up the 2024 Republican nominee odds table has stalled. Former President Donald Trump reasserted himself as the favorite to get the GOP nod, improving to +300 from +400 at UK bookmaker Ladbrokes.
Trump’s odds are the same now as they were in April, while DeSantis remained stable from his May numbers. The Florida governor was +1000 in April. Trump’s odds to win in 2024 also ticked back up, from +800 to +700, while DeSantis’ odds remained at +1200.
2024 Republican Nominee Odds
|Donald Trump Jr.||+5000||–|
Odds current through June 18, 2021
The Florida Candidates
Perhaps the three most intriguing storylines – for now – are all living in Florida. We touched on Trump and DeSantis, and the third is US. Senator Marco Rubio. There was buzz in the past about Rubio – of course that was before the infamous water-drinking incident in his GOP response to Barack Obama’s 2013 State of the Union address and his emasculation at the hands of Trump.
Rubio is the only other potential GOP candidate who saw his odds shift in the last month, and it was decidedly down. Once hovering in that second tier along with Mike Pence, Nikki Haley and Josh Hawley, Rubio slid all the way down to +3300 in the most recent odds. Part of the reason for Rubio’s slide might have to do with the recent announcement by Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings.
Demings was considering two options for a 2022 statewide run in the Sunshine State: Governor or senator. DeSantis faced the prospect of a spirited challenge in his bid to be re-elected in 2022 if Demings opted for Door No. 1. A bruising race (or potential loss) from Demings, one of the House managers in Trump Impeachment 1, undoubtedly would have dinged DeSantis' odds. He still might face a high-profile challenge, but it won't be from Demings.
I'm running for U.S. Senate because I will never tire of standing up for what is right. Never tire of serving Florida. Never tire of doing good.— Val Demings (@valdemings) June 9, 2021
Join my campaign today: https://t.co/rHVPBuSzKU pic.twitter.com/HuWB80Mrxh
The former chief of police in Orlando has already begun prosecuting her case against Rubio, with more to come.
2024 US Presidential Odds
|Kamala Harris (D)||+350||–|
|Joe Biden (D)||+400||–|
|Donald Trump (R)||+700||↑|
|Ron DeSantis (R)||+1200||–|
|Nikki Haley (R)||+2000||–|
|Mike Pence (R)||+2000||–|
|Kristi Noem (R)||+5000||↓|
|Pete Buttigieg (D)||+5000||–|
|Ted Cruz (R)||+5000||–|
|Josh Hawley (R)||+6600||–|
|Tom Cotton (R)||+6600||–|
|Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)||+6600||–|
|Ivanka Trump (R)||+6600||–|
|Donald Trump Jr. (R)||+10000||–|
2024 Presidential Election odds via Ladbrokes as of June 18, 2021
Not too many changes in terms of presidential odds for potential candidates – though we should keep an eye on Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson to see if he has any staying power in the odds. That said, there was one notable change in Ladbrokes’ winning party odds.
Ladbrokes now lists the Democrats at -120 to win the 2024 election, a bump from -110, while Republicans have slipped to +110 from +100.
There was no movement for 2024 Democratic nominees: VP Kamala Harris is +188 and Biden is +200, with Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg next in the queue at +2000. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains at +2500.
Harris also remains the overall Presidential odds favorite at +350, an acknowledgment of Biden’s age entering office (78) and questions as to whether he will serve more than one term. Keep in mind, he’d be 82 to start a second term. Ronald Reagan was just shy of 74 when he was reelected.
A reminder: Political betting is not legal in the United States, but it is over in Europe. Just because US sportsbooks didn’t offer odds in 2020, that it didn’t stop many networks from citing the betting markets leading up to and throughout 2020 Election Night (and the days that followed).