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2024 Oscars Odds: Picks, Ultimate Betting Guide For 96th Academy Awards

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 34 mins

2024 Oscars Odds: Picks, Ultimate Betting Guide For 96th Academy Awards

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The 96th Academy Awards ceremony airs Sunday, starting at 7 p.m. ET on ABC.

The Oscars nominees were announced on January 23. 

Here is our 2024 Academy Awards betting guide, complete with odds, and predictions for the winners in the top six key categories. 

Wagering on the Oscars has been legal in the United States since 2019. This year, betting sites in New Jersey, Michigan, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas, Colorado, Massachusetts and Louisiana are allowing action to be taken on Hollywood’s biggest night of the year. Action is also being booked by legal sports betting sites in Ontario.


RELATED: Where Can You Bet On The 2024 Oscars?


Not all legal sportsbooks are taking wagers on the Academy Awards, even if permitted to do so. 

FanDuel, for example, took Academy Awards bets just in New Jersey last year and accepted wagers on just six categories. BetMGM  is approved for Academy Awards wagering in Indiana, Michigan, and Louisiana. DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook had betting available in all states where it was allowed in 2023, except Colorado.

Odds Offered In 23 Categories

This year, DraftKings and FanDuel have odds up on 23 categories being presented on March 10.

Director of Race and Sports at DraftKings Johnny Avello expects another record year in handle for Oscar betting as it now available in 8 states. The success of "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" at the box office can only push betting so far. "Oppenheimer" has 11 nominations and "Barbie" has 8.

"Oppenheimer is such a fan favorite, the odds are going to be short on it," Avello said. "We'll see money on "Barbie" at 25-1. There'll be some play there. I think some other movies might get some play like "Poor Things" at 12-1. People are going to take shots because when you have a big favorite like ("Oppenheimer") at -1000. Every other movie has a very lucrative odd, so you look to beat up the king, so to speak if you can."

The allowed amount of wagers varies by state. Avello said most Oscars bets taken by DraftKings range between $5-$500. 

.Jimmy Kimmel will host the telecast for the fourth time, returning after last year, and back-to-back appearances in 2017-18.

Viewership bottomed in 2021 when just 10.4 million people watched. That was the smallest TV audience in Oscars history (since the first measurement in 1974). The numbers bounced back in 2022 to about 16 million thanks in large part to the Chris Rock-Will Smith slap and the stir it caused on social media. Viewership rose again to 18.7 million in 2023.

'Barbie' Controversy

2024 Oscars Odds: Picks, Ultimate Betting Guide For 96th Academy Awards 8

"Barbie" received 8 nominations including Best Picture, but director Greta Gerwig and "Barbie" herself, Margot Robbie, did not make the final cut in their respective categories. They receive nominations in other categories. Gerwig for her screenplay and Robbie as a co-producer on the film. Ryan Gosling, who played Ken, and America Ferrera, who played Barbie's human guide have been nominated in the supporting actor and actress category. 

The snubs of Gerwig and Robbie triggered outrage from some on social media. Both Gosling and Fererra voiced their disappointment in not seeing the lead in the film and its director not getting nominated. “I was incredibly disappointed that they weren’t nominated,” Ferrera, 39, told Variety 

Gosling was even more pointed. "But there is no Ken without Barbie, and there is no Barbie movie without Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie, the two people most responsible for this history-making, globally-celebrated film," he said in a statement. "To say that I’m disappointed that they are not nominated in their respective categories would be an understatement."

In the past, statements like these would be a guarantee that neither Ferrera nor Gosling would have a chance. But the makeup of the Academy is much younger and more diverse. Will voters who agree throw their support behind "Barbie's" co-stars? We'll see. 

2024 Oscars Betting Surprises?

And even in Academy Awards betting, there are no true locks. There’s always an Anthony Hopkins out there. If he's not going to eat your liver, he might eat your money.

In 2021, the Academy re-designed the show to award the Best Actor statue at the end, predicting a posthumous win for Chadwick Boseman in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” When Anthony Hopkins (+800) won, the show went to credits as soon as the award was presented.

“That was a stunner. The people putting the show together weren't expecting it, because the acting category is never the last thing,” said Dominick Debonis. He led the WynnBET trading team on Oscar betting in 2023. “They set up the Best Actor as the last award, expecting the coordination and getting to honor him and all that. And then, they pretty much just cut to black when Anthony Hopkins was announced.”

“There’s always one category that does this,” added Avello. “This time it was at the end of the show.”

Avello wrote his first ticket in Las Vegas in 1984 and invented the Oscars betting market during his days on the Strip. He noted continued growth last year in the overall Academy Awards betting handle, despite the steep price (-1200) on the eventual Best Picture winner: "Everything Everywhere All At Once."

"For the award season, it's all about timing and momentum. When there's smoke, there's fire," he added.

2024 Oscars Odds & Predictions

2024 Oscars Odds: Picks, Ultimate Betting Guide For 96th Academy Awards 1

With the announcement of all the Academy Awards nominations on January 23, the field is set. The numbers of Best Picture and the acting awards shifted following the Screen Actors Guild Awards ceremony on Feb. 24. Oscars voting took place from Feb. 22-27.

Here is a breakdown of the Oscars odds listed by their best available price, our picks, and the buzz on each of the six major Oscars categories.

Best Picture - Oscars 2024 Odds

FilmStudio Odds
OppenheimerUniversal Pictures -5000
Poor ThingsSearchlight Features  +2000
The HoldoversFocus Features +2500

The Zone Of Interest

 

Film4
 
+2500
Barbie Warner Brothers +3500
Anatomy Of A FallLe Pacte +4000
Killers Of The Flower MoonApple TV+/Paramount +6500
American FictionAmazon MGM Studios +8000
Past Lives A24 +10000
MaestroNetflix +10000

Odds via DraftKings  and subject to change

Oscars Best Picture Betting Analysis

In 2023, the odds for "Everything Everywhere All at Once" to win Best Picture spiked from -270 to -1400 following its big night at the SAGs. "Oppenheimer" has absorbed all the pre-Oscar buzz and won't move unless something unexpected happens. Still, "The Holdovers" might be worth a small investment given the price.

If the Academy had an award for "Most Important Picture of the Year," it would go to "Barbie" in a landslide. The film grossed $636 million domestically and filled cinemas from coast to coast.

The Winner Is . . .

”Oppenheimer”: We called the win for "CODA" in 2022 before riding the chalk on "Everything" in 2023. The make-up of the Academy has more than doubled in recent years and the push to a smaller scope has been rewarding. But the Academy hasn't chosen a big-screen, cinematic, box office hit for Best Picture since "Green Book" in 2019. "Oppenheimer" hits all the right notes this time. Last November, the film opened at +800. Its price spiked bounced from -700 to -1200 after a dominant night at the BAFTA awards on February 18. It then soared to -5000 after the film's big night at the SAG awards, including "Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture." 

Meanwhile, the price of "Killers of the Flower Moon" was cut in half after the BAFTA awards, from +2500 to +5000. "Barbie" also tumbled from +1400 to +4000 before making a bit of a rebound heading into Awards Week.

Best Director - Oscars 2024 Odds

2024 Oscars Odds: Picks, Ultimate Betting Guide For 96th Academy Awards 6

DirectorFilmOdds
Christopher NolanOppenheimer -5000
Yorgos LanthimosPoor Things +2500
Martin ScorseseKillers Of The Flowers Moon +3500
Jonathan GlazerThe Zone Of Interest +3500

 

Justine Triet

 

Anatomy Of A Fall

+6500

Odds via DraftKings and subject to change

Oscars Best Director Betting Analysis

Christopher Nolan's films have generated more than $6 billion in box office revenue but he's 0-for-5 when it comes to Oscar nominations. He's only been nominated as a director once before, for "Dunkirk" in 2018. Martin Scorsese broke his Oscar drought back in 2007 but is just 1-for-15 when it comes to being nominated by the Academy. The biggest surprise here was the snub of Greta Gerwig for her direction of "Barbie." "I wouldn't say Nolan is locked in because I never say that, but he's a strong favorite," Avello said.

The Winner Is . . .

Christoper Nolan ("Oppenheimer"): Nolan's number (-5000) and the number on "Oppenheimer" are the highest ever for any Oscar betting favorites since legal wagering on the Academy Awards began 5 years ago. You have to bet $50 to win $1 in each case. The Academy has made a push toward diversity in this category in recent years. But Nolan left his comfort zone this time and delivered the Big One. "The only other one I think that has a chance would be 'Killers of the Flower Moon' with Scorsese. I thought he did a great job in that, but Christopher Nolan is just so far ahead of the field in this particular category. This would be a real two-shocker for me," Avello said. Nolan opened at -140 in November and holds 72.5% of the handle.

Best Actor In A Leading Role – Oscars 2024 Odds

2024 Oscars Odds: Picks, Ultimate Betting Guide For 96th Academy Awards 2

ActorFilmOdds
Cillian MurphyOppenheimer -1000
Paul GiamattiThe Holdovers +500
Bradley CooperMaestro +1600
Jeffrey WrightAmerican Fiction +8000
Colman DomingoRustin +8000

Odds via DraftKings and subject to change

Best Actor Oscars Betting Analysis

We called Brendan Fraser's win over Austin Butler last year, as the favorite held despite a late surge. Here, Cillian Murphy captured the complexities of the man who made the atomic bomb possible, losing himself along the way. The Academy tends to lean toward performances that portray real-life, known people, despite Fraser's win for "The Whale" last year. If you want to give out the Oscar for biggest whiff in 2023, it goes to Bradley Cooper for "Maestro." He morphed the brilliance of Leonard Bernstein into a 129-minute off-tune sex romp (pick your partner of choice). "Maestro's" release marked the day the music died. Avello disagrees, he enjoyed Cooper's performance. "I thought he was excellent. liked the movie, a lot of people told me they didn't like it. I did like it, but I think Paul Giamatti ("The Holdovers") is probably the major competition for Murphy. Wouldn't be surprised if there's a push on him towards the end."

The Winner Is . . .

Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”): Murphy portrayed one of the most important figures of the 21st century. A big win for a big role. Giamatti could steal this one if voters have "Oppenheimer" fatigue and could be the best play in any of these categories given his price. "As we get closer, you're going to see some shifts and odds because there's going to be a buzz about certain movies and certain actors and actresses and categories," Avello cautions. Murphy's win at the BAFTAs and SAG awards are a sign of what may come on Oscar night. Giamatti's price has tumbled from +125 to +500, while Murphy is now a prohibitive favorite at -1000 after opening at -130. BetMGM. is carrying a massive liability on Giamatti, who holds 66.8% of the book's handle.  

Best Actress In A Leading Role – Oscars 2024 Odds

2024 Oscars Odds: Picks, Ultimate Betting Guide For 96th Academy Awards 3

ActressFilmOdds
Lily Gladstone
 

Killers Of The Flower Moon

 

-225
Emma StonePoor Things +135
Sandra HüllerAnatomy Of A Fall +3500
Carey MulliganMaestro  +5000
Annette BeningNyad +5000

Odds via DraftKings and subject to change

Best Actress Oscars Betting Analysis

Both Best Actor and Best Actress odds have been swung by the SAG awards in the past. Now is the time to look for value. The makeup of the SAG membership is more diverse than that of the Academy. Lily Gladstone is the ideal choice in that sense, given that she is a Native American and the first Indigenous person to win the Golden Globe in this category. Emma Stone's performance as the sex-craving, ever-curious female Frankenstein Bella Baxter in "Poor Things" dominated the screen. Annette Bening's portrayal of swimmer Diana Nyad was perhaps the most intense role of her storied career. Voters delivered a major snub to Margot Robbie, who was shut out for her role as Barbara Millicent Roberts in the year's biggest film. "Lily Gladstone, I think she's the one if you're looking at an underdog in this whole bunch of categories," Avello said.

The Winner Is . . .

Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”): As noted above, Gladstone was the best underdog to play in the major categories before winning her SAG award and pulling even with Stone. Her performance was magnified given that she shared the screen with Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro, and delivered the most memorable performance in the film. Stone has the early momentum, but Gladstone is going to have some serious push given the clout wielded by her co-stars and director. She is pulling away as the favorite after being an underdog. Stone's win at the BAFTA awards pushed her price from -140 to -250, while Gladstone moved to +175 from +110. We backed Gladstone at +175 before her price spiked following the SAG award victory. The SAG and Academy electorate enjoys considerable overlap. Those voters are more diverse than the BAFTA voters and that could give Gladstone the edge on Oscar night. Gladstone has 75.3% of the of the handle at BetMGM. 


Best Actor In A Supporting Role – Oscars 2024 Odds

2024 Oscars Odds: Picks, Ultimate Betting Guide For 96th Academy Awards 4

ActorFilmOdds
Robert Downey Jr.Oppenheimer -3500
Ryan GoslingBarbie +900
Robert De NiroKillers Of The Flower Moon +2000
Mark RuffaloPoor Things +2500
Sterling K. BrownAmerican Fiction +4000

Odds via DraftKings and subject to change

Best Actor In Supporting Role Betting Analysis

Imagine, if you will, the only Oscar won by "Barbie" going to the guy who played Ken. All hail the Patriarchy!  It could happen here with Ryan Gosling. Meanwhile, Robert Downey Jr. chilled audiences in his role as Lewis Strauss, the film's villain, and Robert Oppenheimer's chief antagonist, seen mostly in black and white. A real-life Tony Stark Sr., if there ever was one. Downey Jr. has been nominated twice before in this category, for "Chaplin" in 1993, and "Tropic Thunder" in 2009. Avello lauded De Niro for his performance in "Killers Of The Flower Moon." "There was a part in the movie, where he had to speak Indian. And it wasn't like two words, it was a paragraph. He just handled that so well. What a tremendous actor he's been through the years, and just to be able to do that at his age to remember. Sometimes you can't even remember to put together five foreign words" Avello believes De Niro is "worth that shot" at +2000.

The Winner Is . . .

Robert Downey Jr.: Like Jamie Lee Curtis last year, Downey has a "career achievement vibe" at his back this year. His BAFTA and SAG wins pushed his price from -1000 to -3500, meaning you have to bet $35 to win just $1. Downey held up in the very real world of the era of McCarthyism. Gosling ended any chance with his comments about the nominating process. Academy voters don't like being told they screwed up. There will be pressure to award "Barbie" a statue in one of the Big Six categories given the blowback over the above-mentioned snubs. The film is a -500 favorite in Costume Design and -550 in production design. America Ferrera is up against a wall in the Best Actress In A Supporting Role category. Gosling's portrayal of Barbie's self-anointed boyfriend who never believed Barbie could live without him spoke with audiences and critics. Ken stole this show. And his subservience to masculinity could have hit home with Academy voters. But not this time.

Best Actress In A Supporting Role – Oscars 2024 Odds

2024 Oscars Odds: Picks, Ultimate Betting Guide For 96th Academy Awards 5

ActressFilmOdds
Da'Vine Joy RandolphThe Holdovers -3500
Danielle BrooksThe Color Purple +2000
Emily BluntOppenheimer +2000
America Ferrera Barbie +2000
Jodie FosterNyad +4000

Odds via DraftKings and subject to change

Best Actress In Supporting Role Betting Analysis

Jamie Lee Curtis won this award last year, it was her first Oscar nomination in her 40-plus-year career. Curtis' price soared from (+1400) to (+175) after the 2023 SAG awards.

The loss by Angela Bassett triggered outrage among the masses on social media, given that the "Oscars So White" controversy has never subsided for some. This year, three women of color have been nominated.

America Ferrera did her best to shine in Barbie and represented millions of women and girls who have felt their time had finally arrived. But Da'Vine Joy Randolph is the one to watch here. "This is very rare to have this big of a favorite in the supporting role. The supporting role is where you sometimes see the upsets," Avello said. He agrees that a win for Emily Blunt in this category, which is traditionally presented early in the evening, could signal a big night for "Oppenheimer." But that didn't happen at the BAFTAs.

The Winner Is . . .

Da'Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers") Randolph was the winner of the Golden Globe in this category for her performance as Mary Lamb and followed that with a win at the BAFTA and SAG awards. She has long been the strong favorite in this category. A cool mother grieving the loss of her son in Vietnam. Her character was able to coax humanity out of Giamatti's in "The Holdover" while dealing with unimaginable emotional pain. She has starred on Broadway, film, and TV for a decade. She grew up in the Mount Airy neighborhood of Philadelphia.

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.