By David Caraviello | | 18 mins
All-Star Race Odds & Predictions for NASCAR at Texas Motor Speedway
It’s All-Star Race time again in NASCAR, which means the only major all-star event featuring—well, all the same guys you see every other week. Once again we’re at Texas Motor Speedway and once again there’s a rather convoluted format involving as many as four drivers advancing from a preliminary race, and a four-stage main event paying $1 million to win. But how does all this impact NASCAR betting?
NASCAR odds have two-time All-Star champ Kyle Larson as the +600 odds favorite for this event, where the winners of the first three stages and a mid-race pit stop competition (yes, seriously) will earn the top four starting spots for the final 50-lap dash for all the cash. Despite the goofy rules, surprise winners in this exhibition remain rare; Jamie McMurray in 2014 and Larson in 2019 (both with Chip Ganassi at the time) are as close to shockers as it gets.
But then again, we’re in the midst of a sea change this season, where drivers like Ross Chastain and Tyler Reddick seem to have overtaken veteran mainstays like Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick—as the odds for this All-Star Race on betting apps certainly suggest. That could mean a more wide-open event than we’ve seen previously, and another opportunity for savvy bettors to capitalize at online sportsbooks.
NASCAR All-Star Race Odds
|Driver||Win||Top 3||Top 5|
|Martin Truex Jr.||+1200||+300||+150|
Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication.
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NASCAR All-Star Race Betting Tips
Seven active drivers have All-Star Race victories, with Harvick and Larson leading that group with two apiece. But for most of its history this exhibition was held in Charlotte, before being relocated initially for COVID-related reasons in 2020. Chase Elliott won the event that year at Bristol, while Larson claimed the inaugural All-Star event at Texas last season.
So it might be wise for bettors to look not at a drivers’ All-Star history, but record on the 1.5-mile layout in Fort Worth. Kyle Busch leads active drivers with four victories in Texas , followed by Harvick and Hamlin with three each. But Harvick hasn’t won in 54 races, and Hamlin is mired in 20th in points.
Busch continues to run well, but continues to struggle to convert those performances into victories, with his lone win this season being a gift after the leaders spun each other out on the Bristol dirt.
Reddick owns the best average finish (8.7) of any active driver at Texas, where he’s finished as high as second—although he’ll have to win at least a stage in the All-Star Open to make it into the main event.
Larson won the most recent points race at Texas, and has been sixth or better in four of his last five. And don’t discount Kansas winner Kurt Busch, who’s been top-10 in eight of his last nine in Fort Worth.
NASCAR All-Star Race Three Best Bets
Chase Elliott to Win
Odds: +800 at BetRivers
In a wacky event in a wacky season, give us the steadiness of a points leader who brings good value in the process. Although he finished back in the pack last week at Kansas due to a loose wheel, Elliott has been 10th or better in seven of his last nine and is historically very good at Texas, where his career average finish is 11.5.
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Tyler Reddick Top 3
Odds: +320 at FanDuel
Expect Reddick to easily advance out of the All-Star Open, either by winning a stage or winning the whole thing. In addition to his solid track record at Texas, Reddick has shown plenty of signs this season—second at Darlington and Bristol, third at Phoenix, fifth at Austin—that he’s ready to break through.
Austin Dillon Top 5
Odds: +700 at DraftKings
Another RCR driver who has to advance out of the Open, but presents that combination of past success at Texas and good performance this season. Winner of a 2020 points race in Fort Worth, Dillon has also posted top-10s in five of his last seven overall, a stretch that includes a runner-up finish at Talladega and a third at Martinsville.
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NASCAR All-Star Race Time, Date and TV
When: Sunday, 8 p.m.
Where: Texas Motor Speedway, Fort Worth