Bookies Bachelor Tracker Breaks Down Probabilities of Final 3
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With the NFL betting season over, it’s the perfect time to refocus your attention to your mock “The Bachelor” brackets. Season 25 entered its final stages, with the 28-year-old real estate broker and charity founder Matt James meeting the remaining contestants’ families, and ending the night with only three women left vying for his heart and the final rose.
If you’ve been utilizing Bookies.com’s Bachelor Tracker and subsequent in-house hypothetical odds system to project James’ suitors’ advancement each week, your mock brackets should be in good shape heading into the final part of the season – it’s February after all, and busted brackets can wait until March Madness.
Our data analysts have used a variety of historical data from the previous 24 seasons of “The Bachelor” to create this one-of-a-kind odds system that, so far, has effectively predicted each week who will remain in the Top 15, Top 10 and Final Four, and will look to maintain that success as the season enters its fantasy suite and final rose ceremony episodes.
Host Chris Harrison always promises that each season will be like none before it, but even with the successful franchise throwing a few wrenches in that no one could have predicted – the addition of five contestants in Episode 3, Sarah sending herself home, and Heather Martin’s surprise arrival this week – the Bookies Bachelor Tracker has remained relatively unfazed.
The graphic takes a look at how probabilities have shifted among each of these women looking for a key to the Fantasy Suite throughout the season.
Keep in mind that there are no legal betting markets for “The Bachelor,” either among European bookmakers or in the United States. Specials betting in the US, including political betting, is not widely available – Oscars betting is one of the few exceptions here. With that in mind, here’s where things stand, and how we project the rest of the season playing out:
The lone remaining member from the so-called JV squad – the five women introduced midseason – Michelle has had a visible connection with Matt since her arrival, and Matt clearly connected with the 27-year-old Minnesota teacher’s students during their appearance on the pair’s hometown date.
She significantly increased her odds from last week when compared to the two ahead of her, no doubt because of the pair’s ability to consistently discuss heavy topics like George Floyd and Black Lives Matter, and maintaining momentum from their first date when the pair each answered "how many kids do you want?" with the same number at the same exact time.
He got along well with her family during Monday’s episode, and while their playful game of basketball was cute, her future on the show is no slam dunk – at 27%, she holds the lowest probability of receiving the final rose. <
The 24-year-old Texan’s hometown date with Matt opened with the pair utilizing a Jeep to take on an obscenely rough off-road dirt course, which coincidently could be foreshadowing the bumpy road the communications manager will have to take in order to earn the final rose. Entering the night leading the pack in probability of earning the final rose, the Texan now finds herself second with a 38.5% chance of being proposed to.
Her early-season success continues to offer her hope, though, as she was the first contestant out of the limo, was selected for the season’s first one-on-one and earned a Group Date Rose in Week 3. Her opening up about her appreciation for diversity and that she was raised by divorced interracial parents has seemingly left a lasting impression on Matt, and the playful interactions the family had with him bode well for the likelihood of him seeing a future with her.
To start the season the 24-year-old had one of the higher probabilities of earning the final rose, and despite injuring herself with a crash landing at the end of the skydiving portion of her hometown date with Matt, the graphic designer has the highest probability of sticking the landing and being proposed to, sitting at 42.6%.
Her feelings may have also been hurt that Matt didn’t ask for her father’s blessing, and her family was clearly the most skeptical of the four he visited with, but her upward trend continued this week, landing her with the best chance of being the show’s lone remaining contestant.
Other Season Highlights
- 67% of contestants predicted in the Top 3 advanced to Week 9
- Contestants that began with a 10% or lower probability of earning The Final Rose had the biggest jump in their probability of winning The Final Rose, based on Week 9 probabilities
- Contestants that began with a 15%-26% probability (highest probability range) of advancing to The Fantasy Suite had the biggest jump in advancing to The Fantasy Suite, based on Week 9 probabilities
With no way to currently bet legally on “The Bachelor,” we look forward to seeing how this hypothetical prediction system plays out the rest of the way, and whether it can experience a successful second half, much like it did through the show’s first half.