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US Open Day 10 Picks and Best Bets Including Alcaraz, Zverev & Keys

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com

Isla Knightley  | 10 mins

US Open Day 10 Picks and Best Bets Including Alcaraz, Zverev & Keys

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The US Open quarterfinals conclude on Wednesday, with four matches split evenly between the men and women taking to the iconic show courts at the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Queens, New York.

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz faces former US Open finalist Alexander Zverev for a spot in the penultimate round, while countrymen Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev go head-to-head. 

On the women’s front, the newly-minted World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka looks to continue her advance against Xinyu Zheng, while American Madison Keys takes on the reigning Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova.

As ever, we here at Bookies.com will be covering the action, cherry-picking the best matches on the day’s slate to spot for your daily tennis picks

So without further ado, let’s take a deep dive into Wednesday’s action and spot the best bets with our US Open Day 10 predictions, complete with tennis odds from the most trusted betting apps.

US Open Day 10 Best Bets 

MatchupPickOdds

Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev

Rublev to win

+200 (ML) at bet365

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev

Alcaraz to win in four sets +225 at bet365

Madison Keys vs Marketa Vondrousova

Over 22.5

+100 at Caesars

Aryna Sabalenka vs Xinyu Zheng

Sabalenka to win 2-0 -120 at bet365

The betting odds might have changed since the time of publication. For the most updated odds, please check the betting apps.

Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev

The all-Russian showdown between Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev should be a belter. They’re not only countrymen but also very good friends who rose up through the ranks together. There’s nothing they don’t know about each other’s game. 

That said, the head-to-head record between them tips the balance towards Medvedev. The former US Open champion has taken the measure of his pal in five of their seven meetings—all on a hard court—and he’s won all three of their grand slam quarterfinal meetings. 

In addition, Rublev is weighed down by the disappointment of a 0-8 overall record in the quarterfinals of a major. 

For obvious reasons, the sports betting markets are skewed towards Medvedev and you have to think that his superior hard-court game will see him prevail over Rublev again. At -250 on the moneyline, Medvedev is a decent price to win.

And yet, Rublev won their most recent meeting in the Dubai final, 6-2, 6-2. If that doesn’t stoke a fire in his belly, what will? It’s a long shot bet, but Rublev finally breaking duck is not beyond the realm of possibility as indicated by his understated +200 underdog odds.

US Open Best Bet: Rublev to win at +200 (ML) at bet365

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev

The popcorn match of the day’s tennis-betting card features defending champion Carlos Alcaraz and a resurgent Alexander Zverev, who was a finalist in New York three years ago.  

Alcaraz breezed into the final eight with a straightforward 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 win over Matteo Arnaldi, while Zverev survived an epic five-set marathon 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 to defeat Jannik Sinner— what turned out to be his longest ever match at the US Open.

Zverev leads the head-to-head series between them 3-2, a run of form that includes a perfect 2-0 record on hard courts. But both hard-court wins came early in 2021, before Alcaraz’s meteoric rise to the top of the game. 

Since then, the 20-year-old Spaniard has been on the ascendancy, winning two of their last three meetings—albeit all three matches coming on clay.

Predictably, Alcaraz is the clear favorite to win this much-anticipated contest, and the fact that Zverev is coming off an energy-sapping win over Sinner is sure to play a factor. 

That said, Zverev made it known that he’s here to play when addressing the New York crowd in the wee hours of Tuesday morning following his epic win against Sinner.

Pundits, fans, and bookmakers alike have found it hard to see beyond Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz deciding the US Open final, but Zverev has been at pains to remind everyone that there are other legitimate contenders, including himself. 

As such, expect Zverev to make a fist of it and win at least a set-off Alcaraz. 

US Open Best Bet: Alcaraz to win in four sets at +225 at bet365

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Madison Keys vs Marketa Vondrousova

Madison Keys is channelling the kind of form that saw her reach the 2017 US Open final and she is now three wins removed from matching that result. Standing in her way of a place in the final four is Marketa Vondrousova, the reigning Wimbledon champion. 

The Czech defied the odds at the All England Club to become the first unseeded player in the Open era to claim the coveted Wimbledon crown. And, so far, she has avoided the hangover that affects first-time grand slam champions in their next major appearance. 

The big-serving lefty powered through her first three matches, dropping no more than four games per match. In the R16, American Peyton Stearns, spurred on by the Flushing faithful, managed to win the first set but Vondrousova rallied to win the next two sets 6-3, 6-2.  

Not surprisingly, Vondrousova opened as the betting favorite at -135 on the moneyline. However, since markets first went to press with the tennis odds for this match, the line has moved against Vondrousova. She is now priced as the slight underdog at +110. 

The likely catalyst for the market’s U-turn is Vondrousova’s withdrawal from Tuesday’s doubles match with partner Barbora Strycova due to a shoulder injury. 

It’s easy to understand Keys’ chances vastly improving as a result of the uncertainty that surrounds her opponent’s fitness. But, at the same time, bowing out of the doubles tournament was to preserve the Czech’s bid in singles. Thus, underestimating Vondrousova entirely might be premature.

US Open Best Bet: Over 22.5  +100 at Caesars

Aryna Sabalenka vs Xinyu Zheng

With defending champion Iga Swiatek bundled out of the tournament prematurely, Aryna Sabalenka now emerges as the top favorite across the sportsbook betting exchange to win the coveted title—US Open champion. As well, the Belarussian will become the new World No.1 when the updated WTA rankings are released next Monday. 

Sabalenka hasn’t put a foot wrong in this tournament, marching into the final eight without dropping a set and also relinquishing no more than five games per match. 

Indeed, Russia’s Daria Kasatkina showed up for their R16 contest but, despite the 13th seed’s best efforts, she could only take four games off the statuesque Belarussian in a 6-1, 6-3 decision.

Xinyu Zheng, the 2022 Newcomer of the year,  is the surprise package of the women’s tournament as the rising Chinese star reaches her maiden major quarterfinal following an upset over a stricken Ons Jabeur in the R16. 

Not to take anything away from Zheng, whose blend of power and precision overwhelmed Jabeur in the 6-2, 6-4 victory, but an in-form Sabalenka, blasting winners from all corners of the court, looms as a daunting prospect. In two sets, Sabalenka is on to her fourth grand slam semifinal of the 2023 season and second in a row at the US Open. 

US Open Best Bet: Sabalenka to win 2-0 at  -120 at bet365

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About the Author

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com
Isla Knightley
Isla, a sports journalist and betting expert, covers several sports, including the NFL, as well politics. She joined Bookies.com in 2021 after contributing to other betting sites.