The first two races of the NASCAR season have brought longshot winners and nice payoffs for the bettors gutsy enough to back them. Michael McDowell was +6600 to take the Daytona 500, and Christopher Bell +5000 to prevail on the Daytona road course. But a change of scenery this week should put an end to this early trend of surprise winners in Victory Lane.

In the 22-year history of NASCAR races at Homestead-Miami Speedway, only one result qualifies as an eye-opener: Bill Elliott winning in 2001 to snap a 226-race winless skid. Denny Hamlin leads the series with three career victories on the 1.5-mile oval, where passing can be difficult and the guys up front tend to stay there.

No surprise, then, that Hamlin is the NASCAR betting favorite for Sunday’s event at +500. But there are plenty of strong drivers with more favorable odds, and the season’s first two races — one on a superspeedway, the other on a road course — offer zero indication of who might prevail here. Here are seven best bets for Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead, where the NASCAR Cup series season really begins.

Dixie Vodka 400 Odds To Back

NASCAR odds current as of publication and subject to change. Check out the latest Dixie Vodka 400 odds here.

Joey Logano to Win, +1200

He was left with nothing to show for either effort, but Logano was up front at the end of both the Daytona 500 and the Daytona road course race, so we know his car is fast. And he’s strong at Homestead, where he won in 2018 and has finished worse than eighth only twice since 2012. He carries very good odds for a championship driver on a track where he traditionally fares well, offering lots of upside to bettors. Back Logano with BetAmerica.

Denny Hamlin Top 3, +170

As we saw over the past two weeks — with Hamlin’s Daytona 500 streak and Chase Elliott’s run of road course victories both ending — there are no sure things. But bettors would still be wise to incorporate Hamlin into their portfolio for Sunday because he’s always fast at Homestead. Even so, his consistency can be lacking; he placed 12th and 10th before prevailing last year, so there’s reason to search for a winner with more favorable odds. Grab Hamlin at Resorts.

Kyle Busch Top 3, +320

Though he spent two weeks at Daytona picking up pieces of his wrecked race cars, Busch — not his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Hamlin — has the more consistent recent record at Homestead. Busch has won twice and had four other finishes of sixth or better in the past six years. Over the last seven races, no driver has earned more points. Given that degree of prowess, his value is hard to resist. Grab Busch at Resorts.

Austin Dillon Top 10, +150

He’s better known for his performance on superspeedways, but Dillon has enjoyed some under-the-radar runs at Homestead of eighth and seventh in the past two seasons. In fact, he has just one finish in South Florida worse than 14th (his rookie year of 2014, when he placed 25th) so Dillon is always around the top 10. If you seek top-10 options in quality equipment with positive moneyline values, you could do much worse. Make the bet with FOX Bet.

Christopher Bell Top 10, +105

The surprise winner last week on the Daytona road course has one career start at Homestead, finishing eighth there last year. That came in a vehicle owned by Levine Family Racing; the Gibbs equipment he’s in now is a huge step up. There’s no setup carryover from last week to this, but the momentum can’t hurt. And if Bell can finish top-10 in a below-average car, he can do it in the No. 20. Grab Bell at DraftKings.

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Team Penske to Win, +400

If you’re looking to double up on Logano as your winner, this is the place to do it. Wagering on the Penske team to win brings far better value than wagering on a Ford driver to win at +175. And a Penske bet also gives you Brad Keselowski, who has finished top-10 in six of his last eight starts at Homestead, as well as Ryan Blaney, who was third at the track last season. Take Team Penske at DraftKings.

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21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in IA/KS/KY/LA/MD/MI/NJ/NY/TN/VA/VT/ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. Max. $150 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: dkng.co/bball. Ends 1/5/25 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DraftKings. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD).

Chase Elliott Top Chevrolet, +175

A bit of chalk here given that Elliott is the clear favorite in the Chevrolet stable, but it’s easy to see why. In five career starts at Homestead the Hendrick driver boasts an average finish of eighth, bolstered by a runner-up result last season. If you’re looking for more value, Kyle Larson is an interesting option at +250, but none of the bow tie boys can match Elliott’s track record at Homestead. Bet on Elliott at Unibet.

Dixie Vodka 400 Time, Date & TV

When: Sunday, Feb. 28, 3 p.m.

Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway, Homestead Fla.

TV: FOX