With Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, and Joey Logano having won the past three races on NASCAR’s top series, all indications are that the final few weeks of this season will involve the remaining championship contenders deciding things among themselves. That is unless Tyler Reddick intervenes Sunday in South Florida.

Although he was eliminated from title contention after the most recent playoff round, Reddick is the NASCAR betting favorite at Homestead-Miami Speedway by virtue of the fourth- and second-place finishes he’s recorded in his only two career starts on the 1.5-mile oval. Given that we’re in the win-to-race-for-the-title phase of the postseason, you’d expect Sunday’s victor to come from that small group with a title still at stake.

At least, that’s how it’s been in recent years. Although Homestead hasn’t been in this role before, the season’s third-to-last event under this playoff format has often been won by a driver vying to get into the title round—think Kyle Larson last year, Kevin Harvick in 2019, 2018 and 2017, and Carl Edwards in 2016. The outliers during that span have been all-timers like Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson—no offense to Reddick, but he’s not quite at that level yet.

Reddick is also suddenly playing out the string with Richard Childress Racing, given that Kurt Busch’s concussion-forced hiatus will move Reddick into a 23XI car beginning next season. No question Reddick is a talent, and this next-gen car can disrupt historical trends. But two starts (with just three laps led) isn’t much of a sample size, and the NASCAR odds favorite will face plenty of strong challengers at Homestead.

2022 Dixie Vodka 400 Odds

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook review.

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2022 Dixie Vodka 400 Betting Tips

Eight active drivers have career wins at Homestead, with Denny Hamlin leading the group with three—the most recent coming in 2020. For all of his inconsistency, Hamlin has always been pretty good at Homestead, where he’s started on the pole in six out of seven races, and finished top-10 in nine of his last 11 starts. 

Likewise, Kyle Busch has been top-10 in seven straight starts on the South Florida track, a span that includes a pair of victories.

Kevin Harvick has also been historically excellent at Homestead, with top-five runs in seven of his last eight, though he typically has a lot more to race for than he does now. Logano, the points leader, has been 25th and 27th in his past two Homestead starts, though before that he was top-six in five straight, a span that includes his lone victory there. 

Ross Chastain’s best result in three previous Homestead starts is 17th, while Chase Elliott was runner-up at the track in 2020.

Among the other title candidates, William Byron led 102 laps on his way to winning at Homestead last year, while Ryan Blaney was third in 2020. Larson may be out of the title hunt, but he’s still excellent in Miami with top-five runs in four of his last six. Martin Truex Jr. has also been third or better in four of his last five there, and he’s been very competitive on intermediates in the playoff—even though he missed qualifying for it.

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2022 Dixie Vodka 400 Expert Picks

Denny Hamlin to Win

Odds: +800 DraftKings  

Hamlin runs so hot-and-cold everywhere, that if you can find a place where he’s been consistently good, it’s hard not to jump on it. In addition to his Homestead success, he’s been top-10 in every playoff race save the road course event at the Roval, and he’s coming off a strong fifth at Vegas. 

Hamlin also fits the profile of the kind of driver who typically wins this race, which is hard to ignore. Grab Hamlin at +800 on betting sites this weekend.

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Joey Logano Top-3

Odds: +300 DraftKings  

We called Logano’s victory last weekend at Las Vegas, seeing past tough finishes on wild-card tracks like the Roval and Talladega to a driver who’s run very well on intermediates. His Homestead profile is similar, with a run of success obscured by two recent poor results. Logano has long been underestimated as a top-notch driver, and with his spot in the title round clinched, he has nothing to lose in South Florida.

Kyle Larson top Chevrolet

Odds: +500 DraftKings  

Reddick may be the odds favorite on sports betting apps and Byron the defending race champion, but among Chevy drivers it’s hard to ignore what Larson has done at Homestead, where he was consistently excellent even in a Chip Ganassi car. Although Larson crashed out at Las Vegas, his first race since being eliminated from title contention at the Roval, we expect a far better result at one of his best tracks.

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2022 Dixie Vodka 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 2:30 p.m. EDT

Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway, Homestead, Fla.

TV: NBC