Emmys Betting: Ali’s Odds Worsen, Veep in Close Comedy Race

By Daniel Bettridge Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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Less than a month before Hollywood’s best and brightest gather at the Microsoft Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, for the 71st Primetime Emmy Award Ceremony on Sept. 22, the betting market is experiencing some seismic shifts with many of the early leaders falling out of favor with the markets.

Join us as we look at the latest odds from 888Sport to see who’s hotter than a “Chernobyl” reactor and who’s colder than a “Nightwalker’s” heart ahead of next month’s event.

Mahershala Ali loses ground

The migration of movie stars from the big to the small screen was one of the biggest stories when the Emmy nominations were dished out back July 16. Among the biggest stars in the Emmy Award nominee galaxy was Mahershala Ali, who picked up a nod in the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie for his role in “True Detective."

Flying high off of the back of a win at this year’s Oscars for his star turn in the critically acclaimed “Green Book," Ali was installed as the early favorite at +125 for his performance as Arkansas state police officer on Season 3 of HBO’s “True Detective.” However in recent days Ali has slipped to just +400, third behind Jharrel Jerome (“When They See Us”) at +100 and Jared Harris (“Chernobyl"), who’s just behind at +175.

Reason For Mahershala Ali’s fall from favor?

Some of the Emmy market’s cooling on Ali can be attributed to the Oscar bump that the actor experienced after he won Best Supporting Actor at the Academy Awards this year. That factor naturally diminishes over time.

But perhaps the biggest reason for Ali’s lengthening odds is the sheer quality of the competition. This is a vintage year in the Limited Series or Movie category with smash hit shows such as “Chernobyl” (-133), “When They See Us” (+100) and “Escape at Dannemora” (+2000) all in contention.

Not only are the shows superb but the acting is A-list too. In particular Jharrel Jerome’s performance, in Netflix’s drama based on the events of the 1989 Central Park Five case, has attracted major buzz. Critics have been falling over themselves to praise the star. All of which will help explain how Jerome has leapfrogged Ali as the category’s frontrunner, jumping from +175 to +100 in recent weeks.

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No laughing matter for ‘Veep’

Away from the Limited Series or Movie category another frontrunner has also fallen off the pace with Emmy backers, and that’s HBO’s “Veep”.

A critical darling, the comedy starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus has been beloved by TV academy voters from the very start, landing a nomination in the Comedy Series category every year it has been eligible since its premiered in 2012.

Indeed “Veep” landed a hat trick of awards from 2015 to 2017 before taking a break last year while its star underwent treatment for breast cancer. That break was the only reason its winning streak ended, a factor that no doubt played into its installation as the early frontrunner at -118.

However, over recent days “Veep’s” odds have slipped to +100 and the Outstanding Comedy Series category is looking closer to call than ever. No doubt the quality of the competition is playing a part, with the political satire coming up against the likes of “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (+180), “Barry” (+350), and breakout Brit hit “Fleabag” (+650), all of which could be considered favorites in any other year.

At -500, Louis-Dreyfus is also by far and away the overwhelming favorite for the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series category, which could make backers wary about doubling up on the hilarious HBO show.

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About the Author

Daniel Bettridge

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Daniel Bettridge has written on subjects ranging from pop culture to pro sports for publications such as The Guardian, The Times, The Atlantic and MSN.