Firekeepers Casino 400 Odds, Picks and Betting Preview for NASCAR at Michigan
David Caraviello | 20 mins
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It’s been a crazy few weeks for NASCAR betting fans, who after the disqualifications that followed the Pocono race saw a number of contenders wrecked in the Turn 1 melees that accompanied each of the final restarts last weekend at Indianapolis. Michigan International Speedway on Sunday would seem to bring a respite, given how drivers are often able to check out on the big, fast 2-mile track.
Over the last two races at the Brooklyn tri-oval, there have been just two cautions for multicar accidents, and just once in the last five events has a winner started from outside the top three. Michigan is a speed and setup track dominated by NASCAR’s top organizations, with Brian Vickers’ 2009 victory in a Red Bull car and Charlie Glotzbach’s 1970 triumph for owner Ray Nichels among the very few exceptions to that trend.
But of course, this season continues to defy every tendency, with only one odds favorite--Kyle Larson at Fontana in the second race of the year--making it to Victory Lane. Chase Elliott is the NASCAR odds favorite at Michigan on the strength of his torrid summer stretch, but 2022 has taught NASCAR bettors that there are no guarantees. Elliott was the odds favorite last week, too, and he ended up 16th at Indy after being punted in one of the overtime wrecks.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Odds
|Driver||Win||Top 3||Top 5|
|Chase Elliott||+600 ➜||+170 ➜||-125 ➜|
|Kyle Busch||+650 ➜||+180 ➜||-120 ➜|
|Kyle Larson||+700 ➜||+200 ➜||-115 ➜|
|Denny Hamlin||+750 ➜||+210 ➜||-110 ➜|
|Ross Chastain||+900 ➜||+250 ➜||+110 ➜|
|William Byron||+1200 ➜||+350 ➜||+150 ➜|
|Tyler Reddick||+1200 ➜||+350 ➜||+150 ➜|
|Ryan Blaney||+1200 ➜||+350 ➜||+150 ➜|
Odds via DraftKings ➜ and current as of publication.
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FireKeepers Casino 400 Betting Tips
Bettors should have some options at Michigan, given that seven active drivers have wins at the track, and 21 have posted a top-10 finish. Kevin Harvick leads the pack with five victories, including three straight from 2019-20, although the Stewart-Haas driver continues to battle through a winless skid that reached 65 straight races last week.
Kyle Larson, Joey Logano and Kurt Busch have three wins apiece at Michigan, although Busch has missed the past two races with a concussion and his status for Sunday remained unclear as of early in the week. Logano has been 20th or worst in his last three starts on oval tracks, and the reigning series champion Larson seems still searching for a handle on this new car. Denny Hamlin, defending race champ Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch round out those with career victories on the big tri-oval.
What about Elliott? Although the Hendrick driver has never won at Michigan, he’s finished ninth or better in 10 of his 11 career starts there, and his average finish of 7.7 is best in the series. Hamlin hasn’t won at Michigan since 2011, but he’s been sixth or better in four straight. Also look out for William Byron, who led 18 laps at Michigan last year on his way to a runner-up finish.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Three Best Picks
Christopher Bell to Win
Odds: +1500 at DraftKings ➜
With Elliott and Tyler Reddick running circles around everyone else right now, it’s tough to find that combination of value and recent performance. Christopher Bell provides perhaps the best shot--he followed his New Hampshire win with a fourth-place run at Pocono, and was in the mix to win at Indy until getting shuffled back late in the race. His Michigan record is just OK (best finish of 13th) but there’s clearly potential for more.
Chase Elliott Top Chevrolet
Odds: +320 at DraftKings ➜
Elliott’s run of five straight top-two finishes ended on the penultimate restart at Indianapolis, when Logano went too wide into Turn 1, tried to shove himself back in line, and sent the No. 9 car--which was running in second--spinning as a result. But the performance is still there, as is the aptitude at Michigan, where Chase Elliott has led 144 laps and three times finished as runner-up.
Kevin Harvick Top Ford
Odds: +500 at DraftKings ➜
He’s been the best in the business at Michigan, where he has an average finish of 3.8 over his last seven starts. And Kevin Harvick has been more competitive this season than his winless skid might suggest, notching top-10s in eight of 11 starts before crashing out of the Indy road race. While he still hasn’t shown the ability to run at the front (just 13 laps led all season), he’s capable of pacing a shallow Ford stable at one of his best tracks.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Date, Time and TV
When: Sunday, 3 p.m.
Where: Michigan International Speedway, Brooklyn, Mich.