Hollywood Casino 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions for NASCAR at Kansas

Get ready for the elite drivers to assert themselves, we wrote. Be prepared for serious title contenders to flip the switch in NASCAR’s playoff opener, we wrote. Be aware of historical trends which strongly indicate that the window has now closed on long-odds winners, we wrote.

All just in time to see +4000-to-win Erik Jones go to Victory Lane at Darlington. Clearly, the leveling effects of this next-gen car continued into a playoff opener that in 11 of the past 18 years had been won by not just a playoff driver, but one who would go on to finish top-four in final points. So now, it’s natural for NASCAR betting fans to wonder: Is it really going to be like this all the way through the finale at Phoenix? Are the NASCAR odds favorites ever going to flip the switch?

In fairness, Darlington may prove something of an outlier due to its unique configuration and racing line, which rewards those drivers who simply have a knack for it—like Jones, clearly, who’s now won there twice. Kansas Speedway, where the series competes Sunday, is a far more typical 1.5-mile tri-oval. But then again, Kurt Busch won at Kansas in May. His odds? They were +4000 on betting sites.

Following the launch of Kansas sports betting on Sept. 1, bettors in the Sunflower State will be able to legally wager on the race for the first time. Let's take a look at the NASCAR odds:

2022 Hollywood Casino 400 Odds

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication.

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2022 Hollywood Casino 400 Expert Picks & Best Bets

Tyler Reddick to Win, +1200

Week after week brings only more respect for Reddick, who continues to show he can contend anywhere. Seventh at Watkins Glen, second at Daytona, third at Darlington—you can’t get a more diverse collection of tracks than that, and the RCR driver excelled at all of them. While Reddick finished 30th at Kansas in the spring due to a flat tire, he qualified second, so the speed is clearly there. He also ran seventh at Kansas in 2021.

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Denny Hamlin Top Toyota, +275

We’re beginning to see the first signs of consistency from a driver who’s not exactly known for it, and it all arrives at the perfect time. With his runner-up result at Darlington, Hamlin has now strung together top-five finishes in three straight races on unrestricted oval tracks. Had his Pocono result not been disqualified, that streak would be five straight. Hamlin has also finished fourth and fifth, respectively, in his last two starts at Kansas, where his most recent victory came in 2020.

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Christopher Bell Top 5, +125

Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate has quietly enjoyed a fantastic past month, finishing second at Richmond, eighth at Watkins Glen and fifth at Darlington. Bell has also been excellent recently at Kansas, where in the spring he started from the pole and led 37 laps before finishing fifth. A true sign that Bell has a knack for the place: In 2020, before the next-gen car leveled the playing field, he scored a top-10 at Kansas for a lower-rung Leavine Family Racing outfit.

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2022 Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Tips

Odds favorite Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick and new standings leader Joey Logano lead all active drivers with three wins each at Kansas, where Harvick also boasts a circuit-best average finish of 9.1. Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. are the only other active multiple-race winners at the track. Of past race winners, Truex has been the most consistent at Kansas as of late, with top-nine finishes in 10 of his last 11 starts.

Chase Elliott, who crashed and finished last in the playoff opener at Darlington, has a chance to rebound on a track where he’s finished sixth or better in six of his last eight starts, a span that includes a victory in 2018. Kyle Larson has placed first and second, respectively, in his past two starts in Kansas City, while Christopher Bell has finished eighth and fifth over that same span. Kyle Busch, who likely would have won at Darlington if not for a blown engine, has been top-five in three of his last five at Kansas, including third in the spring.

But recent results force us to look deeper in the field, given that Jones was +4000 to win at Darlington and Austin Dillon +2800 to win on betting apps at Daytona. Bubba Wallace has shown steady progress at Kansas and was 10th there in the spring. Chris Buescher has three top-10s at the track, most recently an eighth-place finish in 2021. Dillon has been very good there, with top-10s in two of his last three. And then there’s Ricky Stenhouse, who ran eighth at KCK earlier this year.

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2022 Hollywood Casino 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 3 p.m.

Where: Kansas Speedway, Kansas City, KS

TV: USA