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Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

By Dan Kilbridge | | 21 mins

Houston Open Picks & Predictions: Betting Trends & Odds To Back

Houston Open Picks & Predictions: Betting Trends & Odds To Back

The golf betting action returns stateside this week for one of the longest-standing tournaments on Tour: the Houston Open.

The event recently moved to the fall portion of the calendar from its traditional slot in the week before the Masters, where it represented last call for players hopeful to sneak into the field at Augusta National. Now it’s a chance for guys to secure an early invitation to the Masters, though the venue recently changed as well.

Newly-renovated Memorial Park Golf Course will host for the second year in a row. It’s one of the few municipal courses on Tour and played tough last year, with Carlos Ortiz getting the win at 13-under-par 267 for the week.

Sam Burns is the heavy betting favorite at top sportsbooks with +1200 odds. Cameron Smith and Scottie Scheffler are next at +1800, while Sungjae Im is fourth on the board with +2000 odds at the best betting sites in the US.

Talor Gooch rounds out the top five at +2200.

2021 Houston Open Odds

Player WinnerTop 5Top 10
Sam Burns +1200 +300 +140
Cameron Smith +1800 +350 +180
Scottie Scheffler +1800 +350 +180
Sungjae Im +2000 +400 +200
Talor Gooch +2200 +450 +240
Matthew Wolff +2500 +500 +250
Tyrrell Hatton +2500 +500 +250
Tony Finau +2500 +500 +250
Brooks Koepka +2800 +500 +275
Adam Scott +2800 +500 +275

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review for more information.

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Houston Open Historical Odds & Results

The betting longshots when it comes to golf odds have done well in this tournament through the years. Since 2016, Russell Henley has been the lone winner priced +3000 or better. The Houston Open has included serious longshot winners, such as Jim Herman in 2016 (+25000) and Carlos Ortiz in 2020 (+15000).

The betting favorites did fare much better overall when the tournament moved to Memorial Park in 2020 – Hideki Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka were each priced 20/1 or better and landed in the top five in 2020.

This has always been a middle-tier field, with a few A-list names and a bunch of quality players looking to score FedEx points before the Tour shuts down for a few weeks at the end of the year. While the big names gave it a run last year, we saw another big longshot take the title in Ortiz.

When it comes to the Houston Open, don’t be afraid to take a flyer on guys further down the board. This could be anyone’s tournament based on past betting odds.

2016

1. Jim Herman – 250/1

2. Henrik Stenson – 12/1

3. Dustin Johnson – 12/1

4. Rafa Cabrera Bello – 60/1

5. Daniel Berger – 80/1

2017

1. Russell Henley – 30/1

2. Sung Kang – 500/1

3. Luke List – 80/1

4. Rickie Fowler – 15/1

5. Daniel Berger – 30/1

2018

1. Ian Poulter – 80/1

2. Beau Hossler – 125/1

T3. Jordan Spieth – 10/1

T3. Emiliano Grillo – 50/1

4. Sam Ryder – 250/1

2019

1. Lanto Griffin – 40/1

2. Scott Harrington – 150/1

3. Mark Hubbard – 100/1

4. Harris English – 40/1

T5. Talor Gooch - 125/1

T5. Carlos Ortiz – 50/1

T5. Sepp Straka – 100/1

2020

1. Carlos Ortiz -150/1

T2. Hideki Matsuyama – 20/1

T2. Dustin Johnson – 8/1

4. Talor Gooch – 80/1

T5. Brooks Koepka – 20/1

T5. Sepp Straka – 125/1

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Houston Open Expert Pick & Betting Tips

Best Bet: Jhonattan Vegas Top-10 Finish

Odds: +650 at BetMGM

Vegas is flying under the radar on top betting apps after a missed cut last week at Mayakoba. We expect him to bounce back strong this week in Houston.

The top of the 2020 leaderboard at Memorial Park was filled with bombers, including Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka in the top five. Vegas has more than enough length to take advantage of the par-5s here, finishing ninth on Tour in driving distance last season. He also showed plenty of potential last month with four rounds in the 60s and a T-14 finish at the CJ Cup.

Vegas has also been dialed in the with the irons in recent months and this looks like a second-shot golf course, with tricky greens and a premium on accuracy from the fairway.

Vegas is also a Houston resident and has been familiar with this course for a long time, tracking the renovation project and playing in last year’s event. That’s an edge over guys who will be seeing the course for the first or second time this week.

Given his distance, iron play and familiarity, we like the value at BetMGM on Vegas for a top-10 finish at +650.

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Houston Open Betting Tips

Distance is big this week. One can gauge that just by looking at the 2020 leaderboard when the tournament moved to Memorial Park, which features three robust par-5s listed at 587, 625 and 576 yards.

Almost all of the top contenders last year have above-average length and strong iron play, with greens that get slick around edges and can see a lot of runoff on off-line approach shots.

We’re looking for players with a good combination of distance off the tee and accuracy into the green, as well as guys who played well here last year in the first go-round at Memorial Park. Strong recent form is a bonus, but this course looks like a much different challenge than last week’s resort layout in Mayakoba.

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Houston Open, Date & TV

When: Thursday-Sunday, Nov. 11-14

Where: Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston

TV: Golf Channel

About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.