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Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

By Dan Kilbridge | | 5 mins

Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions

Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions

Former YouTube star and current would-be professional boxer Jake Paul is stepping back into the ring. And, for the first time, he’s doing it against a legitimate opponent, with Paul taking on pro boxer Tommy Fury August 6 at Madison Square Garden.

The 25-year-old social media sensation began the career pivot in 2020 by facing fellow internet professionals and amateur fighters like former New York Knicks point guard Nate Robinson. Very few took him seriously as a fighter back then. 

Paul has since bolstered his resume with wins over past-their-prime former UFC fighters Ben Askren and Tyron Woodley – he scored a first-round knockout over Askren in April, 2021, though Askren was not known for his boxing abilities. He won a split decision over Woodley in August, 2021 and knocked him out with a vicious right hand in the rematch last December. 

That’s when Paul-Fury was originally slated to take place, but Fury pulled out and Woodley stepped up on short notice to fill the spot. While major betting apps are not currently offering odds on the Paul-Fury bout at the likes of FanDuel and DraftKings, we've set our our line on the fight and will update should odds become available.

Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury Betting Odds

FighterOddsImplied Probability
Tommy Fury-15060%
Jake Paul+13040%

These odds are set by our Bookies.com handicapper and do not reflect odds that may be available on legal betting sites.

The fight odds were roughly Fury -175, Paul +150 for the first scheduled fight in December. We’ve set our boxing betting line slightly more in Paul’s favor, with Fury a -150 favorite and Paul a +130 underdog. 

This is definitely Paul’s most serious boxing opponent to date, which isn’t saying much. Paul has been enjoying this fighter persona of his own creation because he has had the ability to hand-pick every opponent and set the terms for the fight. Knocking out Woodley was his most definitive performance to date, without question. But Woodley is 40 years old, lacks traditional boxing experience and was stepping into the ring on short notice. 

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Fury is certainly an attention-grabbing name in the boxing world and Tommy is the brother of heavyweight champion Tyson Fury, creating instant intrigue. He’s also the first professional boxer Paul will face and that inherently poses several questions. 

While Tommy and Tyson share a name, however, the resumes couldn’t be more different. Tommy’s next-largest claim to fame is a prior appearance on the UK reality TV show, “Love Island.” He is 8-0 as a professional with four stoppages and we should see pretty quickly whether Paul is in over his head against a real fighter regardless of status.

Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury Prediction 

It’s still difficult to know what to make of all this – Paul’s fantasy camp-esque entry into the fighting world, the nonstop promoting and bravado. 

Let’s be clear about one thing - Paul is not a serious threat in the sporting sense and would get his face smashed in by hundreds of boxers in his weight class in a sanctioned bout.

That’s not the point. 

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Paul has money and time. He can train as hard as he wants for as long as he wants under any circumstances he wants. If nothing else, his early fights have shown there is an actual desire on his part to get better. He seems to take training seriously. We’re not sure any prior opponent can say the same.

Fury is a legitimate fighter. He has gained fame through other avenues as his resume is nothing special, but this is his livelihood and he should be the far more experienced and technically-skilled boxer opposite Paul. It should be apparent almost immediately whether or not this is an evenly-matched fight. 

We believe it will be more competitive than many expect, simply for the fact that Paul has so much control over the environment. Otherwise this is the first time he’ll be facing someone his size, so he can’t rely on massive reach and age advantages he enjoyed in prior fights. 

Paul wouldn’t take this fight if he thought he was in serious trouble and could get knocked out early. He knew he needed a serious step-up in competition, at least from an optics perspective, in order to maintain interest in his new career. So, it’s interesting that Fury was the hand-picked dancing partner. 

We predict Paul will hold his own and lose a decision, setting the table for a rematch and another go-round on the Paul hype train. 

Prediction: Tommy Fury to win via DEC

Images courtesy of PA and USA Today

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About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.