By Patrick Surlis | | 10 mins
2022 F1 Miami Grand Prix Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions
From an iconic track in Imola, Italy, to a brand new one in Miami, USA. The Formula 1 circus has returned to the United States for this weekend's Grand Prix, but for the very first time it will be held at the Miami International Autodrome, a track specifically designed for F1 racing and located around the Miami Dolphins' Hard Rock Stadium.
Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc are expected to go head-to-head again, after Verstappen dominated his Ferrari rival throughout the race weekend at the Emilia Romagna GP two weeks ago. That race in front of a partisan Ferrari crowd was a major setback for Leclerc and his team, so they'll be looking to atone this weekend.
Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix Odds
Miami Grand Prix Betting Tips
Verstappen and Leclerc have now alternated race wins through four events this season, but Imola was an unmitigated disaster for Leclerc. The championship leader, in front of an expectant home crowd buoyed by two Ferrari wins from three races, was outperformed all weekend long by his Dutch counterpart and reigning World Champion.
It started in qualifying, where Verstappen looked like the man to beat in challenging conditions. It continued in the sprint, where despite a fast start from Leclerc, he was passed with a handful of laps remaining. The race itself, he struggled to stay with the Red Bulls before a mistake saw him clatter the curb, forcing him into the pits and tumbling down the classification. He eventually recovered to finish sixth. It was damage limitation for Ferrari as teammate Carlos Sainz retired for the second week in a row.
To compound the misery, Red Bull ended the weekend with the sprint winner (Verstappen), the race winner (Verstappen), the fastest lap (Verstappen) and the top two positions, with Sergio Perez in second. Just 11 points now separate second-place Red Bull from leaders Ferrari in the Constructors' Championship. In the individual standings, it was the perfect result for Verstappen, who closed the gap to Leclerc to 27 points. They are both available at -105 with FanDuel to win the Drivers' Championship.
So how will it play out in Miami? The city is a new addition to the F1 calendar but it's actually the 11th different venue to host an F1 event in the United States. The purpose-built track gives us little in the way of history to go on, but it's almost impossible to see the race being anything other than a straight fight between Verstappen and Leclerc.
The wild card is the infamous Miami weather. We're just hitting the point in the year when afternoon thunderstorms become a regular occurrence in Florida and rain is a definite possibility on Saturday. There is currently a 33% chance of rain when qualifying is scheduled to get underway at 4 p.m ET. That would add a welcome element of chaos.
The forecast looks drier on Sunday, with only a 15% chance of precipitation at 3:30 p.m. ET, the scheduled time for the start of the race. But the weather moves fast in the Sunshine State, so keep an eye on the forecast before wagering.
Miami Grand Prix Predictions
Through four races, it's gone Leclerc, Verstappen, Leclerc, Verstappen. The two drivers - and teams - look a class apart so far this year but such was the dominance of Red Bull at Imola, the value on Verstappen at +105 with Caesars Sportsbook looks good here.
His performance in Italy was almost faultless, and his only blemish - a sluggish start off the line in the sprint - was rendered irrelevant when he chased Leclerc down and passed him to take the eight points anyway.
To continue the Red Bull theme, plus-odds on Sergio Perez to finish on the podium at +105 is also appealing. The Mexican driver should get plenty of support in Miami and he's finished fourth, second, second in his last three races.
We backed Lando Norris to finish on the podium in Italy at +500 and the McLaren driver delivered with his third-place finish, his best of the season so far. While McLaren have been up and down this season, Norris has improved in every race and if you are thinking about a longer shot, then he's +475 with DraftKings to repeat the trick and finish in the top three. That seems like good value considering we could see another wet qualifying session that shakes up the pack. It would give McLaren, who fancy themselves as the No. 3 constructor ahead of Mercedes, the opportunity to challenge the leaders.
Speaking of Mercedes, it didn't get any better for them in Italy. Despite that, we actually like George Russell at +470 to make the podium. He's outperformed teammate Lewis Hamilton in three of his four starts and he's finished fourth, fifth, third and fourth so far this season. That's some achievement for the young Brit considering the car he's driving, which is suffering from "porpoising", a downforce problem that essentially means the car is bouncing down the track. Obviously, that's not ideal. But if Mercedes can address the issue - and they are trying - then Russell getting back on the podium is a possibility.
Miami Grand Prix Schedule & TV
- Practice 3: Saturday, 1 p.m. ET to 2 p.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET to 5 p.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN