The 21^st grand slam title may well drop in Melbourne this weekend, but the protagonist isn’t the one many predicted at the start of the 2022 ATP season with Rafael Nadal emerging into the final to face Daniil Medvedev.

The hot topic in the lead-up to the Australian Open was No. 21 potentially dropping in Melbourne. It was the premise upon which Novak Djokovic, the nine-time Australian Open champion and 20-time grand slam champion, was installed as the favorite in tennis betting markets. It was also the catalyst that fuelled betting on the Serbian starlet across multiple sports betting platforms.

Well, we all know how the Djokovic saga Down Under ended. A PR disaster all around. But in the main, the World No.1 player was booted out of the country for breaching Australia’s border rules and posing “a health risk to the Australian community.”

Insofar as Djokovic’s presence would have added another layer of intrigue and drama to the proceedings in Oz, the tournament didn’t suffer at all in his absence. And, crucially, history may yet be made by Nadal. Thus, the record of the 2022 Australian Open may yet be preserved to posterity.

Nadal vs Medvedev: Australian Open Men’s Final Odds

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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Australian Open Men’s Final Betting Tips

Rafael Nadal entered the Australian Open as one of the top five bets for tennis picks, but with odds at around +1200 or higher – depending on the preferred top sportsbook – he wasn’t the top favorite. That principality was reserved for Daniil Medvedev, who ascended to the top of the tennis odds board in Djokovic’s absence. Even Alexander Zverev was priced shorter than Nadal at the start until he was summarily dismissed by Denis Shapovalov in the R16.

Those that grabbed Nadal at his heavy price of +1200 in Australian Open futures before the tournament got underway are literally one win away from beating the books. That is, should Nadal come through with the victory on Sunday. Sadly, those tennis betting fans coming late to the party won’t be cashing in on such fantastic odds. With each passing round, Nadal’s odds shortened substantially.

The good news (yes, surprisingly there is still good news), the value on Nadal hasn’t evaporated into the ether entirely. Colour the world shocked, but Nadal goes into this final as the underdog. BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings have pegged Nadal as the +160 bet to win the title match, while FanDuel offers the best price currently of +170 on a Nadal triumph Down Under.

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How a player that has 20 grand slams to his credit can be priced as the underdog is baffling. Yes, Nadal is no spring chicken. But, at 35 years of age, he’s still an incredible player that consistently plays at a high level and repeatedly defies those critics and naysayers that would write him off hastily.

Admittedly, Medvedev is the second-best hard court player in the game today after Djokovic. The Russian underlined his credentials by beating Djokovic at the 2021 US Open in straight sets. Then, Medvedev denied Djokovic his first attempt to clinch the 21st grand slam title, which would have broken the deadlock with his rivals Roger Federer and Nadal who are tied with the Serbian on 20 grand slam titles.

Suppose, that account gives Medvedev credibility as the odds-on-favorite to win the Australian Open title. The best price is available with Caesar’s Sportsbook where Medvedev is tipped at -187 to win the final. However, winning a second major title can be the toughest thing to do. Nobody wants to be a one-hit-wonder, and the pressure to shed that moniker can be greater than any pressure faced in the pursuit of a maiden title.

Nadal In Four Sets

Nadal comes into the final boasting a 9-0 record. He won the ATP 250 in Melbourne, carrying that momentum into the Australian Open. As the competition stiffened, the victories have been tougher to come by and Nadal has dropped sets as a consequence. He needed five sets to dispense of Shapovalov and then four sets to edge past Matteo Berrettini.

It doesn’t get tougher than Medvedev, although Nadal has the 3-1 head-to-head edge over the Russian. Medvedev has taken sets off Nadal in three of their four contests, including a three-set win in the semis of the 2020 Nitto ATP Finals. If Nadal is to win the Australian Open final, betting on a four-set (or five-set marathon) is a reasonable play.

It’s worth noting that a 3-1 win by Nadal in tennis prop betting at bet365 is priced the shortest. While a straight-set win and a five-set win are priced at +600, a four-set win is priced at +550 with bet365.

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Medvedev In Straight Sets

Medvedev comes into the final with a 9-1 record that includes a run to the ATP Cup semis. Medvedev started strong, but in the last few rounds, he’s faced some tough competition. Felix Auger Aliassime was his toughest matchup to date as the Canadian rising star won the first two sets of their quarterfinal contest. Medvedev had to dig deep to turn around the match and win in five. In the semis, Medvedev won a highly competitive match over Stefanos Tsitsipas in four sets.

Those looking to back Medvedev to win will find better value with a number of tennis props at the online betting exchange. A straight-set win by Medvedev is priced at +240, while a four-set win is priced at +400 and a five-set win is priced at +500.

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2022 Australian Open Men's Final Pick

A bet on Nadal to win might be dismissed by some as a sentimental tennis pick, but that couldn’t be farther from the truth. Nadal has been the best player on the ATP Tour this month. He’s undefeated. He has a title to his credit – his 89th career title. He’s reached another milestone in his career by winning his 500th hard court match. And he’s one win away from becoming the winningest player in the game. What’s sentimental about that?

Medvedev won’t be an easy out, but Nadal has the experience, the guile, the smarts, and the game to win here. So, Nadal is the recommended pick here. And he’s a solid bet on the moneyline at odds of +170 to win. Equally, there’s value in betting on Nadal in various tennis prop markets, so get the latest tennis odds for those at any of the legal sports betting apps available.

2022 Australian Open Men's Final, Date & TV

Where: Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia

When: Sunday, Jan. 30 at 3:30 a.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Live stream: ESPN+