If you’re holding a NASCAR betting futures ticket backing Chase Elliott as NASCAR champion, it’s understandable if you’re feeling a little nervous these days. Because the Hendrick Motorsports driver is still seeking that race victory to qualify him for the 2023 playoffs.

Elliott, who missed seven starts earlier this season due to a broken leg suffered in a snowboarding accident, is so buried in points as a result of that layoff that winning a race is his lone ticket into the postseason. 

The good news is he still has 10 races in which to get it done—beginning Sunday at Nashville Superspeedway, where the Hendrick driver is the defending champion.

Elliott led the final 39 laps to win last season on the 1.33-mile oval, which is hosting NASCAR’s top series for just the third time. (In the inaugural event in 2021, Elliott finished 13th but was later disqualified for loose lug nuts found in post-race inspection.)  

Of the 10 tracks remaining in the regular season, Elliott has won on four of them—Nashville, Atlanta, Pocono, and Watkins Glen. Two others are the Indianapolis road course and the inaugural Chicago street race, both of which figure to be favorable layouts for the best road racer of his era.

The preseason favorite on betting apps to win the championship, Elliott has since slipped to sixth on the board, with title odds of +1000 at BetMGM. For an elite driver, those odds could turn out to be very favorable indeed—but first, Elliott has to score a race win sometime over the next 10 weeks.

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Despite the goose egg in the win column, Elliott actually heads to Nashville in very good form, with top-10 results in three of his last four starts. 

He finished third last month at a Darlington track that’s similar in length to Nashville, and is coming off a fourth-place run on the Sonoma road course. Since returning to the No. 9 car at Martinsville in April, Elliott has placed 12th or better in every start save the 600-miler in Charlotte, where he was knocked out by a crash.

The driver with the best average finish at Nashville is odds favorite Kyle Larson, who led 264 laps to dominate the inaugural event at the track in 2021, and then placed fourth there last year in the first race in the next-gen car. 

Right behind Larson is Ross Chastain, who’s finished second and fifth in the two Nashville races. Kevin Harvick, Christopher Bell and Joey Logano are the only other active drivers who have competed in both Nashville races and finished top-10 in each.

But with such a small, two-race sample size to go on at Nashville, recent performance overall might be a better barometer for bettors this weekend. The circuit’s hottest driver is Martin Truex Jr., whose Sonoma victory marked his seventh top-10 finish in his last nine starts. 

William Byron has placed eighth or better in six straight oval-track starts. And Kyle Busch has placed first and second in his last two races, and has been seventh or better in four straight overall.

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William Byron to Win

Odds: +800 at BetMGM

Yes, he finished 14th last week at Sonoma. Who cares? On oval tracks, the guy has been an absolute beast, scoring a first (at Darlington), a second (in the 600 at Charlotte), a third (at Kansas) and a fourth (at Dover) over the past seven weeks. 

Byron may get overshadowed by his more heralded teammates, but savvy NASCAR bettors know this is the Hendrick driver to watch right now. He also finished third in the inaugural Nashville race in 2021.

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Martin Truex Jr. Top 3

Odds: +210 at BetMGM

The Joe Gibbs driver may have identical 22nd-place finishes in both Nashville events, but he led 82 laps at the track last year before pit strategy mired him back in the field. His current run, bookended by race victories at Dover and Sonoma, speaks for itself. 

The only blemish over that span for the points leader is a crash-induced 31st-place result at Darlington. If Truex can avoid any trouble on Sunday night, he should be a factor in the end.

Chase Elliott Top 5

Odds: +120 at BetMGM

With 10 races remaining in the regular season, it’s far too early for Elliott to truly be feeling the win-to-get-in pressure, especially with so many favorable tracks still ahead of him. 

And he can take comfort in knowing the car has speed—he’s led laps in four races since his return, and placed seventh or better in three of his last four outings. Getting back to Victory Lane seems only a matter of time.

NASCAR Ally 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 7 p.m. EDT

Where: Nashville Superspeedway, Lebanon, Tenn.

TV: NBC

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