By David Caraviello | | 16 mins
NASCAR At Richmond Odds & Tips For Federated Auto Parts 400
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The drought is over for Denny Hamlin – just in time for him to head to his hometown track, and possibly become an ever bigger factor in the NASCAR Playoffs than he already is.
A +800 bet for the title after the regular season, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver vaulted to +400 after winning last weekend in Darlington, where he ended his season-long winless drought by besting championship favorite Kyle Larson in the closing laps. Larson and Hamlin are now first and second in NASCAR betting title odds at top sportsbooks and betting sites, with the Hendrick Motorsports standard-bearer leading the way at +230 heading to Richmond Raceway in Virginia on Saturday night for the Federated Auto Parts 400.
Richmond is Hamlin’s hometown track, a place where the Chesterfield, Va., native has won three times (though not since 2016) and finished second earlier this season. While it’s too early to predict a Larson-Hamlin clash for the title, Darlington showed that these two drivers are a cut above everyone else right now. Let's take a look at the NASCAR odds for the race.
Federated Auto Parts 400 Odds
|Driver||Win||Top 3||Top 10|
|Martin Truex Jr.||+550||+180||-400|
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Federated Auto Parts 400 Expert Picks
Joey Logano to Win
Odds: +700 at DraftKings
This has been a down season by Penske Racing standards, but Logano showed some flashes last weekend with a resilient eighth-place finish at Darlington, one week after he led 37 laps at Daytona before getting spun out. Logano is very good at Richmond, a unique 0.75-mile layout that requires speed as well as short-track muscle.
The two-time Richmond winner has finished second or third there in three of his last four starts, leading 149 laps over that span. While this shapes up as a very thin championship field at the moment, strange things can happen at Richmond, where fast physical contact can lead to mild upsets in Victory Lane – as we witnessed with Alex Bowman in the spring.
Federated Auto Parts 400 Betting Tips
On the surface, it makes sense why Martin Truex Jr. would be the odds favorite at Richmond, where over his last five starts he has won twice and placed no lower than fifth. And yet, last weekend’s fourth-place result at Darlington was his lone bright spot in a month, and he had to overcome near-constant adversity to manage that. Maybe Truex Jr. will snap back to his usual self at Richmond, but his recent results and relative lack of value make other options worth pursuing.
The same questions might be raised about six-time Richmond winner and No. 3 odds choice Kyle Busch, Truex's Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, who has crashed out of his last two starts. Busch is mired at the back of the playoff field and suddenly faces an immense amount of pressure to pull it together with the Round 1 cutoff looming next week. Among the playoff contenders on major sports betting apps, your best bets for Richmond shape up as Hamlin, Larson, Logano and possibly Kevin Harvick, who in his fifth-place finish at Darlington showed some of the front-running ability that he had lacked since early summer.
Although Larson hasn’t finished top-five at Richmond since winning in 2017, his recent performance – third or better in four of his last five – indicates he can contend anywhere. And while he hasn’t always had the finishes to reflect it, Hamlin has contended for wins in three of his last four outings.
As for long shots, it’s hard to ignore what Ross Chastain has done the last two weeks, vying for wins at both Daytona and Darlington. But he never has finished better than 15th at Richmond. My three best bets would be Logano to win at +700, Larson top-3, and Chastain top-10.
Federated Auto Parts 400 Time, Date and TV
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Richmond (Va.) Raceway
TV: NBC Sports Network