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NASCAR Odds: Betting Predictions & Picks for Goodyear 400 at Darlington

David Caraviello for Bookies.com

David Caraviello  | 19 mins

NASCAR Odds: Betting Predictions & Picks for Goodyear 400 at Darlington

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When Harold Brasington carved Darlington Raceway out of South Carolina farmland in 1950, he ushered American stock-car racing into the big-track age.While so much around the facility has changed since that time—the addition of lights, soft walls and new grandstands, even the flipping of the start/finish line to what is now the frontstretch—that cantankerous egg-shaped layout remains as testing as it was 72 years ago.

That’s why Darlington, more so than any other NASCAR track, remains a domain of the greats - champions, current and future Hall of Famers, or those right on the periphery of either.

For a track that’s hosted 121 premier-series races, the list of surprise winners is a short one: Erik Jones in 2019, Regan Smith in 2011, Ricky Craven in 2003 and Lake Speed in 1988. Everyone else who’s visited Victory Lane at Darlington is worthy of a big silver cup or a golden bust.

That trend is further evidenced in the NASCAR odds for Sunday’s 400-miler on the 1.366-mile layout, where +500 favorite Kyle Larson leads Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch at sports betting apps.

Darlington almost always rewards age and experience, something to keep in mind when considering bets for this weekend, when that unique racing line up against the outside wall will be as unforgiving as it’s always been.

Goodyear 400 Odds

Driver WinTop 3Top 5
Kyle Larson +500 +150 -140
Martin Truex Jr. +700 +175 -125
Denny Hamlin +800 +200 +100
Chase Elliott +800 +200 +100
Kyle Busch +1000 +250 +125
William Byron +1200 +300 +150
Ryan Blaney +1200 +300 +150
Ross Chastain +1200 +300 +150

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Goodyear 400 Predictions & Betting Tips

Only six active drivers own Darlington victories, with three of those having multiple wins: Hamlin with four, Kevin Harvick with three, and Truex with two. Hamlin won the most recent event at Darlington last Labor Day weekend, leading 146 laps and notching his fourth top-five finish in his last five races there.

But his results this season in the next-gen car don’t exactly inspire confidence, given that outside of his Richmond victory he hasn’t finished higher than 13th.

Harvick, meanwhile, is on a 53-week winless skid and has just one top-five finish this season. Truex won the 2021 Darlington spring race and was fourth on Labor Day, but his overall results have been inconsistent of late and he led just five laps in all of May. The past winner to watch here is Busch, who’s finished worse than seventh just twice in his last eight starts at Darlington, and whose streak of five straight top-10s overall includes a victory at Bristol.

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Larson has never won at Darlington, but he has a third and three runner-ups in his last four starts there. Ross Chastain was third at Darlington on Labor Day, and is coming off a third-place run at Dover, another tough old track. While Jones’ performance in a Petty car hasn’t matched the five straight top-eight finishes (with one win) he enjoyed at Darlington while driving for Joe Gibbs, he’s found some footing in the new car with two straight top-10 results.

Goodyear 400 Three Best Bets

Kyle Busch to Win

Odds: +1000 at DraftKings

The Busch brothers came up racing on an oval in Nevada where the line was right up against the wall, and they both immediately took to Darlington like mustard sauce to barbecue. Although he hasn’t won there since 2008, Kyle is excellent at Darlington, with an average finish of ninth since 2010. And don’t count out Kurt, with top-10s in six of his last eight at the Track Too Tough to Tame.

Kyle Larson Top 3

Odds: +150 at DraftKings

Larson doesn’t present the best value at betting sites, but it’s difficult to ignore his average finish of 5.5 at Darlington, where he’s finished worse than third just once since 2016. He’s also led lots of laps there, including 156 last Labor Day and 284 in 2018. The leader at Dover when the race was halted due to rain, Larson is also on a run of three straight top-six finishes overall.

Ross Chastain Top 5

Odds: +300 at DraftKings

It’s just hard to bet against the Trackhouse driver right now, given the level of confidence he’s showing on the track. Chastain has absolutely thrived in this new car, with his seven top-five finishes this season including two victories. He’s also shown progression at Darlington, where he’s improved from 15th to third over his past two starts.

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Goodyear 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 3:30 p.m.

Where: Darlington Raceway, Darlington, South Carolina


About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.