Christmas arrived a month early for the NFL betting public this year. 

Call it “Episode 12: Revenge of The Joes.” The public scored its most decisive financial victory of the season over the Thanksgiving Weekend holiday, as betting favorites covered 12 of the first 15 games heading into Monday night. 

The only favorites who failed to cover in Week 12 through Sunday night were the Lions on Thanksgiving afternoon, the Patriots, and the Bengals. All three lost outright. 

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“The public feasted on favorites Thanksgiving weekend, and it resulted in the biggest week for sports bettors this NFL season at DraftKings.” Trading Manager Christian Cipollini said Monday. 

That book has 77% of its bets on the Vikings to cover Monday night at -3 against the Bears. Since the Supreme Court overturned PASPA in 2018, no week has ever seen 13 NFL teams cover on the line.

Week 12 Rundown ATS 

At DraftKings, those teams where a majority of the spread handle backed the eventual team to cover went 10-1. Three of the top four most-bet teams against the spread all covered: the Eagles, Chiefs, and Ravens. 

The strong showing for the favorites in Week 12 helped to widen the gap with the underdogs thus far in 2023. In all, favorites are 90-79-10 ATS heading into Monday night’s game. 

Week 12 Breakdown By The Book

The run of favorites on in Week 12 helped preserve multiple parlays and teasers, especially with the Lions being upset in the first game of the weekend. That allowed bettors to regroup and load up on plays featuring the Eagles, 49ers, Ravens, and Chiefs – all of whom won outright and covered their respective lines. 

Borgata AC: Director of Race and Sports Thomas Gable: “The Eagles game falling right on 3 and going over didn’t do us any favors. But we had a decent amount of teaser liability tied to the Browns, so the Broncos winning that game going away was very helpful. Thanksgiving obviously started off great with Detroit losing outright but all that did is lead people to come back and pound the Cowboys and Niners so overall the day was a wash. Black Friday not much better with the Dolphins easily covering.”

Beau Rivage Casino: Race and Sportsbook Manager Carl Johnson: “We had a good Thanksgiving. The Green Bay win was big for us on that day. We had a good Saturday with college football. Michigan winning and covering beat all the large ticket holders for us. And then Sunday, like everyone else, we basically gave back what we had won on Thursday through Saturday because of the favorites covering.”

Circa Sports: Director of Operations Jeffrey Benson: “Great on Turkey Day. Break-even Friday and a small loser on Sunday. Got sided in the Eagles game, which was (our) worst result. Broncos’ outcome was awful, too.” 

DraftKings: Director of Race and Sports Operations Johnny Avello: "We saw a lot of action over the extended holiday weekend, as it started out really strong. Sunday was not as good on our end, with the Eagles game falling to 3 after fluctuating all week and the favorites dominating all day.”

SuperBook: Risk Manager Andrew Babakitis: “Thanksgiving and Friday worked out okay for the book with the best outcome obviously being the Packers. Yesterday was not as friendly with the favorites going 9-2. The worst loss being on Baltimore to close out the night. Most notable action was on the Chargers.” 

Survivor Pool Update 

The Green Bay Packers turned Thanksgiving into Black Thursday more than a majority of the  remaining entries in the Circa Survivor pool this week. The Packers upset win at Ford Field wiped out 58.1% of the field. All of the picks made on Sunday won. Through Week 12, there are just 149 entrants remaining from 9,267 that began the season, or 1.6%. 

Major Bets Of Note

Hard Rock Bet (Florida)

Payout: $66,500 on $50 3-Leg Parlay (+132200)

• Trevor Lawerence 1^st TD
• Jalen Hurts 1^st TD
• Zay Flowers 1^st TD

Caesars Sportsbook

Payout: $210,000 on $110,000 Ravens -3 (-110)

DraftKings

Loss: $25,000 on Patriots -3.5 (-112)

Payout: $57,300 on $30,000 Colts -2 (-110) 

Payout: $47,750 on $25,000 Jaguars -1.5 (-110)

Payout: $27,000 on $10,000 Giants ML (+170)

Payout: $9,800 on $5,000 Wil Lutz Over 1.5 FG (-105) 

Loss: $1,900 on Broncos D/ST Anytime TD (+700)