NFL Week 4 Betting Preview: Taylor Swift Meets Her Match

By Bill Speros

Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EST

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Taylor Swift may have finally met her match. 

In Zach Wilson.

It’s really not you, Taylor. It’s a push of sharp money this week that pushed the line on the Chiefs-Jets Sunday night game at MetLife Stadium from Kansas City -9 to -8.5 at some betting apps. 

The NFL has announced Swift will be in attendance. NBC is hyping her appearance in East Rutherford, N.J., as if she had replaced Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Its official promo for the game includes a clip of Swift’s song “Welcome to New York.” 

The line movement on the Chiefs-Jets game heading into Week 4 of the NFL betting season comes despite the public overwhelmingly backing Travis Kelce’s team. 

Swift showed up at Arrowhead Stadium last and cheered on her purported beau Kelce from a luxury box alongside his mom. The world took it from there. 

“We see lopsided action like this on many games throughout the season when we are multiple days before kickoff,” said BetMGM Data Analyst John Ewing. “The betting percentages will come down as we approach SNF.” 

At BetMGM as of Friday, 93% of the tickets and 95% of the handle is riding on the Chiefs -8.5. The Chiefs -8.5 is both the most-bet team in terms of handle and tickets at the book. Ewing said BetMGM saw some of that sharp money and had adjusted its line. The line at Caesars, PointsBet and Bet365 moved in the same direction. 

DraftKings is seeing similar figures in terms of sentiment. The Boston-based book is seeing 92% of the handle and 91% of the spread tickets between the Chiefs and Jets are backing the Swifties at -9 as of Friday. 

For those seeking more value on the Jets, they stood at +9.5 (-105) at FanDuel midday Friday. 

Borgata AC Director of Race and Sports Book Thomas Gable is taking a substantial amount of money on the Chiefs but isn’t aware of any of it being tied specifically to Swift. He remains on the lookout for anyone at the counter who might be wearing their Eras tour swag. 
 

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‘And if I get burned, at least we were electrified’

 Kelce props have gained the public’s interest, as well. 

In Week 3, an 11-play, 64-yard scoring drive closed with a 3-yard scoring pass from Mahomes to Kelce. That was Kelce’s final catch of the game and delivered a win to over bettors on his pre-game total of 6.5 catches (-110) and 0.5 TDs (-120).

Thank the Swifties if you cashed. 

"I felt a little bit of pressure. I knew I had to get it to Trav. Of course, he does his own thing and just makes up a route and I throw it to him. I think he wanted to get into the end zone as much as all the Swifties wanted him to," Chiefs QB Patrick  Mahomes told Erin Andrews of FOX.

Against the Bears, Kelce's total receiving yards number was 72.5 at DraftKings . He finished with 69. His total catch number was 6.5, he finished with 7. And his anytime TD number was -140.

Taylor Swift @NFL Props? You bet! #NFL #NFLBetting @DKSportsbook pic.twitter.com/Rf9BB6gvgZ— Bill Speros (@billsperos) September 29, 2023

Kelce's total receiving yards number is 71.5 this week at the same site. His catch total is once again 6.5. And his anytime TD number is -150. At BetMGM, 98% of its tickets are on Kelce going under his catch total this time. 

DraftKings wasn’t going to stop there. The book has some “Swelce” themed offers this week. 

One “Super Boost” (DK’s Version) play has Kelce 19.89+ receiving yards in each half boosted to +100. The book is also offering a “Love Story” special that combines Eagles running back D’Andre Swift and Kelce combining for 200+ yards at +175. And it has several props featuring both Swift (of the Eagles) and Kelce 

“Taylor Swift has so many good songs, there’s a lot of content around it,” a DK spokesperson said.

Red & Green Alert at MetLife

Gang Green lost Rodgers after four snaps this season. The Jets have been an offensive disaster under Wilson these past two weeks. 

The Chiefs, meanwhile, are finding their rhythm.  Mahomes continues to improvise and build cohesion on offense. He’s targeted a dozen receivers in each of the Chiefs’ two wins this season. Kelce continues to mend after an injury. He sat most of the second half last week after the Chiefs took a 41-0 lead. 

Swift was seen by as many as 24.3 million people on the FOX telecast cheering Kelce’s lone touchdown against the Bears, alongside Kelce’s mom. 

The impact of Swift on the NFL economy has been hard to miss this week. Kelce jersey sales are up as much as 400%. Kelce has more than 3 million followers on Instagram, 276% increase from before his “relationship” with Swift became a public spectacle. 

Swift’s Eras tour has generated a reported $5 billion in economic activity worldwide. Tickets for the game could be had for as little as $80 on Tuesday. As of Friday, the get in price at TickPick with no fees is $156. 

ESPN’s Rich Cimini posted on X Friday that Rodgers could be in attendance Sunday night as well. 

That much star power in one place? 

They won’t need lights. 

Don't forget your bracelets. 

Week 4 Betting Lines and Movement

There are two teams in the NFL perfect against the line this season: the Miami Dolphins (3-0/3-0) and the Arizona Cardinals (1-2/3-0). Thursday night, the Lions (-2.5) walloped the Packers at Lambeau Field. Detroit is 3-1 outright and ATS this season and remains the best team ATS since the start of the 2021 season. 

The Bengals-Titans game has seen its number flip. The Titans were 2.5-point road favorites before Joe Burrow soothed fears of his health with a 19-16 win Monday night. Now, the Bengals are 2.5-point favorites at home. 

Here is look at the line movement in Week 4 ahead of the Sunday and Monday games. 

(*- Game Played In London. Lines via DraftKings)

About the Author

Bill Speros

More About Bill

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.