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Noco 400 Predictions: NASCAR At Martinsville Odds, Picks & Best Bets

David Caraviello for Bookies.com

David Caraviello  | 14 mins

Noco 400 Predictions: NASCAR At Martinsville Odds, Picks & Best Bets

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It’s been one month since William Byron recorded the second of his back-to-back race victories that stamped him as a serious contender for the title in NASCAR betting markets. The Hendrick Motorsports driver aims to take another step in that direction this weekend at Martinsville Speedway, where he is both defending race champion and odds favorite at the half-mile track.

Byron opened as the +600 NASCAR odds favorite to win Sunday’s 400-lapper on the flat Virginia track, where he led 212 laps a year ago. Byron has historically been exceptional at Martinsville, where he’s placed eighth or better in six of his last seven starts. The catch? 

He’s led zero laps there outside of last April, which was his first and still only victory at the short track affectionately known as the “paperclip.”

And while Byron is the lone driver with multiple victories so far this season, he remains third in NASCAR championship futures behind Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch. Since those back-to-back wins at Las Vegas and Phoenix, Byron has endured a rough stretch—double-digit finishes in three of his last four, including 13th last week in the Bristol dirt race. 

He’ll likely find Martinsville much more appealing, given that he’s scored top-10s there in six of his 10 career starts.

2023 Noco 400 Odds

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Noco 400 Betting Tips

Byron may be the odds favorite on betting sites, but the current Mr. Martinsville is Denny Hamlin, whose five career wins at the track leads all active drivers. The most recent of those victories, though, came in 2015. And lately, true to his nature, Hamlin has been all over the place at Martinsville—third one race, 24th the next. 

He did lead 203 laps and finish fifth in the track’s fall night race, but he’s been 16th or worse in three of his last four overall starts entering this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. owns three Martinsville victories, all coming since 2019, but he finished 22nd and 20th last year in the first two races there in the current next-gen car. 

The active driver with the best career average finish at Martinsville is Ryan Blaney (9.7), who finished fourth and third in the two races last year, has twice been a runner-up, and has finished worse than 11th there just one time in the past six years. 

He’s been struggling lately, though, entering southwest Virginia on the heels of three straight finishes of 21th or worse.

What of co-No. 2 odds choices Larson and Bell? Larson has never won at Martinsville, though he was runner-up in last year’s night race, and his 438 laps led overall this season are more than anyone else. Bell led 150 laps and won the track’s night race last fall, and the Bristol dirt winner enters on a hot streak that’s seen him finish sixth or better in five of his last six starts.

Martinsville isn’t the place to hunt for underdog winners, given that it hasn’t produced any since John Andretti in 1999 and Ricky Craven in 2001. But there are some who could surprise on Sunday. 

Keep an eye on Chase Briscoe, ninth in both Martinsville races last year, and Austin Dillon, third there last spring. And don’t discount two-time Martinsville winner Brad Keselowski, making the slow climb back to relevance with his Roush team, which has been 10th and second in its past two races on asphalt ovals. 

Noco 400 Best Bets To Back Today

Ross Chastain to Win

Odds: +600 at DraftKings

While Trackhouse Racing has yet to recapture the magic of last season, Chastain continues to show progress with top-four finishes in his last two starts on asphalt tracks, and 16 laps led two weeks ago at Richmond. 

He finished fifth and fourth in the two Martinsville races last year, using his famous ride-the-wall kamikaze move to secure the latter result. Don’t look for that maneuver again this year, though—it’s been outlawed by NASCAR.

Joey Logano Top 5

Odds: TBD at DraftKings

Although the reigning series champion won the inaugural Bristol dirt race, he’s an asphalt guy at heart. That predilection shows in his results at Martinsville, where he’s finished top-10 in seven straight races and 11 of his last 13. 

Logano was second and sixth at Martinsville last year in the two events in the current car. This season, Logano has finished seventh and first in his last two starts on asphalt oval tracks.

Brad Keselowski Top 10

Odds: TBD at DraftKings

Keselowski has shown real signs of reemergence over the past month, leading 47 laps to finish second at Atlanta and then placing 10th at Richmond. During his Penske days, Martinsville was one of his stronger tracks; he finished top-10 in 10 consecutive races there at one point. 

Sunday, his Roush-Fenway-Keselowski car won’t have to worry about horsepower or aero or any of the things that can set struggling teams behind. It will be all about moxie and skill, both of which BK has plenty of.

Noco 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 3 p.m. EDT

Where: Martinsville (Va.) Speedway


About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.