Millions of Americans will be watching the polls heading into the 2024 US presidential election and one of the best alternative ways to gauge Joe Biden’s chances against his Republican rival is to look at European political betting markets.

The 2024 Presidential Election race is likely to boil down to a face-off between Biden and Donald Trump, although we still have to go through the primaries first. Betting sites think it’s going to be a repeat of 2020 where they correctly predicted Biden would swoop to power.

Biden, though, is not guaranteed to win this contest. The polls make for worrying reading if you’re a Democrat voter, while we still don’t yet know which Republican he will face. It means bettors aren’t just looking at the Biden odds for the presidential race, but also prop bets. Note that legal US sportsbooks cannot offer political odds – yet.

Therefore we’re taking a look at what price European sportsbooks are offering on a range of Biden bets.

Biden Odds & Prop Bets

Odds via Ladbrokes and other betting apps as of June 14, 2023

Biden to Win the 2024 Presidential Election (+150)

Joe Biden is the frontrunner in European betting sites to win the 2024 US election. This may sound strange when you consider he is polling neck-and-neck with both Trump and Ron DeSantis. 

But sportsbooks are unwilling to raise their odds on Biden any higher, especially when we don’t know his rival yet. This is good news for Biden but not for bettors, because it’s likely the veteran’s odds will inflate when we know which candidate the GOP has chosen.

CHECK OUT: Our Daily Presidential Odds Tracker

Biden Win the Popular Vote (+150)

This is arguably a better wager than betting on Biden to win the presidency. After all, in 2016 Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but didn’t get the Electoral College votes needed to beat Trump. 

In 2020 Biden not only secured enough Electoral College votes but also beat Trump by seven million nationwide votes. 

He could lose the next election and still earn more votes, so this is the type of bet Biden loyalists will love. Welcome to American politics!

Biden to Get the Democratic Nomination (-350)

This is probably the dead-cert bet anyone seeking guaranteed profit should be looking at. Biden announced his decision to seek a second term in April 2023. 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson have also joined the race, but they’re unlikely to get near the president during next year’s primaries. At -350 the Joe Biden Odds for the Dems nomination are only going to shorten further.

Biden to Name Harris as Democratic VP (-400)

A far less predictable betting market centers on Kamala Harris. The current vice president is expected to run again on Biden’s ticket, but her approval rating is worse than Biden’s. Can the president afford to have Harris as his running mate? 

Perhaps not. But he’s tied to Harris for the time being. A bigger drop in the polls could change his mind and open the door for Gavin Newsom or Eric Adams to swoop in. But for now this market is too uncertain to confidently bet either way.

Biden to Leave White House Before First Term Ends (-900)

A handful of sportsbooks promote Biden betting odds on his longevity, and whether he will complete his first term in office. 

Back in 2021, there was a point when Biden looked more likely to step down than last four years in the White House. This has changed now, and sportsbooks have gradually shortened his odds of lasting the distance. 

The latest change was a cut from -600 to -900 following the cross-party deal to raise the US debt ceiling. Biden may have lost control of the House but he’s not going to be impeached any time soon.

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