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David Caraviello for Bookies.com

By David Caraviello | | 18 mins

Ruoff Mortgage 500 Odds & Picks For NASCAR At Phoenix Raceway

Ruoff Mortgage 500 Odds & Picks For NASCAR At Phoenix Raceway

Hendrick Motorsports and Penske Racing are two giants of NASCAR, and they’ve swept the first three races of this season. But for NASCAR betting enthusiasts, there are potential profits to be made on betting sites given what’s happening a little deeper in the field.

Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell all nabbed top-10 finishes in this past weekend’s race at Las Vegas. The week prior at Fontana, Calif., it was Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez and Daniel Hemric. In the Daytona 500, rookie winner Austin Cindric led a top 10 that also included the likes of Chase Briscoe, Michael McDowell and David Ragan. According to Dustin Long of NBC Sports, 25 drivers have recorded top-10 finishes in the first three races, the most at this point in a season since 1973.

The presence of the next-gen car, which features parts made by common manufacturers rather than the teams themselves, seems to be having the effect of evening the playing field, even if it’s not yet reflected in Victory Lane. That should get the attention of sports bettors, given the high-value drivers who have been scoring top-fives and top-10s as the circuit heads to Phoenix Raceway on Sunday.

Ruoff Mortage 500 Odds

Driver WinTop 3Top 10
Kyle Larson +350 -110 -225
Martin Truex Jr. +700 +150 -140
Kyle Busch +700 +150 -140
Joey Logano +800 +175 -125
Denny Hamlin +800 +175 -120
Chase Elliott +800 +175 -125
Ryan Blaney +1200 +250 +125
William Byron +1400 +400 +150

NASCAR odds current as of publication from DraftKings and subject to change.

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Ruoff Mortgage 500 Betting Tips

Kyle Larson is the clear NASCAR odds favorite Sunday at Phoenix, and for good reason: He’s finished sixth or better in six straight races on the D-shaped 1-mile oval, capped by a victory in the championship race last fall. He’s picked up right where he left off, rebounding from his Daytona 500 crash with a win at Fontana and runner-up finish at Las Vegas, and leading a total of 55 laps over the past two weeks.

Kevin Harvick is in the midst of a 47-race winless streak and has finished better than 12th just once this season, but his Phoenix record is insane: Nine wins, six more than any other active driver, and a ridiculous streak of 17 top-nine finishes stretching back almost a decade. Kyle Busch has placed worse than seventh at Phoenix just twice since 2014, and was in position to win at Las Vegas last week until a round of pit stops two laps from the finish.

Phoenix is a quirky racetrack, and a lot of drivers—like Larson, Harvick and Busch—have a really good feel for it. Aric Almirola has been 11th or better there in three of his last four, Bell has recorded back-to-back ninth-place finishes, and Jones has four top-10s in 11 career starts. Who might not have a feel for it? Vegas winner Alex Bowman owns an average Phoenix finish of 23.8, Bubba Wallace hasn’t cracked the top 10 since 2018, and Chastain has never finished better than 14th.

Ruoff Mortgage 500 Best Bets

Kyle Busch to Win

Odds: +700 at Draftkings

While it would be very easy to go with Larson here, it’s tough to fatten that bankroll betting chalk every week. Busch brings more value, a sterling Phoenix track record, and a level of recent performance that was good enough to win at Vegas. Toyotas have also fixed their overheating problem, evident in how well three of the four Joe Gibbs cars ran last week.

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Christopher Bell Top 5

Odds: +350 at Draftkings

Speaking of Gibbs cars, Bell hits the sweet spot for bettors—a less-than-household name that attracts better odds value on betting apps, but proven Gibbs power and the ability to contend on certain tracks. One of those layouts is Phoenix, where Bell’s sprint car background pays dividends. A 10th-place result last week at Las Vegas, where he started from the pole and led 32 laps, is a good sign.

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Kevin Harvick Top Ford

Odds: +500 at Draftkings

The proud former champion is mired in a long winless streak and hasn’t really contended in a race yet this season. But nobody is better at Phoenix, where Harvick was runner-up as recently as 2020 and last won in 2018. Clearly, his No. 4 team has some things to figure out. But he’s worth a wager on the desert mile, where Joey Logano is his only real competition within the Ford camp.

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Ruoff Mortgage 500 Time, Date & TV

When: Sunday, March 13, 3:30 p.m. ET

Where: Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, Ariz.

TV: FOX

About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.