By David Caraviello | | 15 mins
South Point 400 Odds, Tips & Picks for NASCAR at Las Vegas
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Kyle Larson further asserted himself as the driver to beat in the NASCAR Playoffs last Saturday at Bristol Motor Speedway, winning on an action-packed night in east Tennessee and entrenching himself as the clear championship NASCAR odds favorite. And now he heads back to the track where his triumphant second act got its start.
That would be Las Vegas Motor Speedway, where Larson won in March to record his first victory with Rick Hendrick, and his first of any kind since prevailing at Dover with Chip Ganassi in late 2019. At the time, it seemed like just a nice story about a driver who had been out of the sport for nearly a year.
Looking back, it was the beginning of an incredible run that has left Larson as the NASCAR betting favorite for the title (+200), well ahead of +450 Denny Hamlin.
Since taking the green flag in that first Vegas race, Larson owns six victories and an average finish of 8.3. Heading back to Vegas, he has finished seventh or better in seven of his last eight starts. There are other drivers who certainly offer better value as championship futures with seven races remaining, but none with a more realistic chance to win.
South Point 400 Odds
|Driver||Win||Top 3||Top 10|
|Martin Truex Jr.||+900||+300||-220|
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South Point 400 Expert Picks and Predictions
Kevin Harvick to Win
Odds: +1000 at DraftKings
Honestly, it’s difficult to not take Larson every week at this point. But instead, we’ll go with the driver who finished second last week at Bristol, and left infuriated over a perceived block from Chase Elliott that helped Hendrick Motorsports teammate Larson remain unchallenged up front.
Harvick has yet to win this season, surely one reason he was “ready to freaking rip someone’s head off” afterward, but his first three playoff races have been among his best this year: Fifth at Darlington, eighth at Richmond, second at Bristol.
More important, Harvick is leading laps again, something we hardly saw from the No. 4 car all summer. Harvick is also a two-time winner at Vegas, having finished second there as recently as 2019. The breakthrough seems like it’s right there – if somebody else doesn’t get in the way.
South Point 400 Betting Tips
Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers with three career victories at Las Vegas, and he was the runner-up to Larson on the 1.5-mile tri-oval in March. But Keselowski has been so erratic late in the season – of his past 10 finishes, six have been in double digits – that it’s hard to really consider him a betting option at sportsbooks this time around.
A better alternative would be Martin Truex Jr., who has been outstanding so far in the playoff (fourth, first and seventh) and has been top-10 in seven of his last eight Vegas starts, a stretch that includes two victories.
Similarly, Hamlin has had a solid opening three weeks to the postseason, and heads to a Vegas track where he was once terrible. But he has gone third and fourth his last two times out. Kyle Busch has finished sixth and third in his past two races on his hometown track, but the way he limped into the playoff’s Round of 12 doesn’t inspire confidence at sports betting sites this week.
Joey Logano leads all active drivers with an average finish at Vegas of 8.4, winning two of his last five starts, and has been very competitive if under the radar so far in the playoffs.
Ryan Blaney is historically very good at Vegas, with top-10s in seven of his 10 career starts, but he has never won there and his opening three playoff races have been uneven at best. Vegas is so fast, it’s hard for drivers in lesser equipment to keep pace, so true underdogs crashing the top five are a rarity – though Matt DiBenedetto has done it twice.
My three best wagers on betting apps this weekend would be Harvick to win at +1000, Larson top-3 at +120 and Truex top Toyota at +290.
South Point 400 Time, Date and TV
When: Sunday, 7 p.m. ET
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: NBC Sports Network