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South Point 400 Odds, Predictions & Picks for NASCAR at Las Vegas

David Caraviello for Bookies.com

David Caraviello  | 18 mins

South Point 400 Odds, Predictions & Picks for NASCAR at Las Vegas

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Christopher Bell’s win-and-advance performance this past weekend on the Charlotte Roval layout paid off nicely for bettors who backed the Joe Gibbs Racing driver at +1600 to reach Victory Lane.

It also marked the second consecutive win for a title contender in these NASCAR playoffs, a trend that may well persist through the season’s final four weeks.

It certainly gets serious now, with just eight drivers remaining in contention for the title, all the road courses and superspeedways behind us, and four very familiar venues left on the schedule.

That finishing stretch opens Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, where defending race winner Denny Hamlin is the NASCAR odds favorite, and where four other championship candidates—Ross Chastain, William Byron, Chase Elliott and Bell—finished in the top 10 in the track’s most recent race this past March.

If you haven’t already, now is the time to squeeze any remaining value out of championship futures, especially if you’re eyeing someone like Bell (+800) for your NASCAR picks. Bettors are certain to get him at a less favorable number should he qualify for the sport’s final four.

The wild card in the title race remains Chase Briscoe (+2500), who keeps churning out top-10s to hang around, and is in the playoff race to begin with thanks to his spring victory at Phoenix—where the championship will be determined on Nov. 6.

2022 South Point 400 Odds

DriverWinTop 3Top 5
Denny Hamlin +550 +150 -125
Christopher Bell +800 +230 +100
Chase Elliott +800 +230 +100
Tyler Reddick +900 +250 +120
Ross Chastain +900 +250 +120
Kyle Larson +900 +250 +120
William Byron +1000 +300 +130
Ryan Blaney +1000 +300 +130

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook review.

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South Point 400 Betting Tips

Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano are the active drivers with multiple victories at Las Vegas, while Logano’s average finish of 8.9 is best on the circuit. Online sportsbook odds favorite Hamlin led 137 laps en route to winning this race a year ago, the capper to a stretch of three straight top-four finishes on the 1.5-mile tri-oval that ended due to a broken drivetrain in this season’s spring race.

Championship favorite Elliott has run hot and cold at Vegas, though he was runner-up behind Hamlin in last season’s fall race, and placed ninth in the first event on the track in the current next-gen car.

Bell was the pole winner for that race, in which he led 32 laps before fading to 10th. Blaney had finished in the top 10 in seven of his past nine starts at Las Vegas, leading 10 laps there in the spring before being swept up in a crash.

Chastain finished third in the spring, but outside of his sixth-place run at Talladega hasn’t been able to run up front as consistently in the playoff as he did earlier in the year.

Kyle Larson, who’s scored three straight top-10s at Vegas—among them a runner-up in the spring—could be a factor if he’s able to get past the disappointment of being eliminated from the playoff last week. And Vegas could prove an uphill climb for dark horse title candidate Briscoe, who in three career starts hasn’t been better than 14th.

My three best wagers on betting apps this weekend would be Logano to Win at +1500, Busch Top Toyota at +500 and Keselowski Top 10 at +300.

South Point 400 Expert Picks and Predictions

Joey Logano to Win

Odds: +1500 at DraftKings

Fantastic value on the second-place driver in the championship standings who also happens to be a two-time winner at Las Vegas.

Granted, Logano hasn’t been better than 18th over the past two weeks, but we’re not going to read too much into a superspeedway and a road course when the Penske driver ran second in his most recent start on a 1.5-mile tri-oval, at Texas three weeks ago.

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Kyle Busch Top Toyota

Odds: +500 at DraftKings

Yes, he’s out of the playoff, and yes, his third-place run at the Roval was his first single-digit finish since mid-August. But Busch is still Mr. Vegas, where he’s been sixth or better in four consecutive races.

For a Las Vegas native, this is his championship race. And remember: Busch was in position to claim the spring race at LVMS until a late caution helped Alex Bowman “back into another (expletive) win,” as Busch put it over his radio at the time.

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Brad Keselowski Top 10

Odds: +300 at DraftKings

Hard to believe we’re looking at a three-time Vegas winner as a top-10 value play, but that’s what it’s come to this season for Keselowski, who’s been a shadow of his former self in his first season with Jack Roush’s organization.

And yet, this isn’t a reach—Keselowski has shown a slight uptick in performance over the past three months and was eighth a few weeks ago on the 1.5-mile tri-oval in Fort Worth.

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2022 South Point 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET

Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway


About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.