If Errol Spence, Jr. is destined to become boxing’s next big thing as his handlers hope, two things have to happen on Saturday night at the Staples Center in Los Angeles when the 29-year-old squares off against fellow 147-pound titleholder Shawn Porter.

First, Spence needs to live up to being the incredible favorite oddsmakers make him in the fight. On top of that, though, Spence needs to prove himself worthy as a box office draw, one who impresses enough people when he fights that a slew of fans will want to purchase the privilege of watching his events on pay-per-view.

Because if he can do that, Spence absolutely could become one of the biggest draws in the sport. He’s just that good, and the powerful promotional push the Fox network is capable of producing for every fight of his career is something that cannot be overlooked.

Spence vs Porter Betting Odds and Info

How talented is Spence?

So much so, that going into a fight against what, on paper, will be the toughest opponent of his career, Spence is -1000 to defeat Porter and +800 on the three-way moneyline per bookmakers like 888sport and SugarHouse in New Jersey. Backing the draw is priced at +2200.

But the main question headed into the fight isn’t really whether Spence will win it. He’s a much better fighter all around than Porter is, and the only way the upset door could maybe be opened is if Spence decided to stand his ground and gun for the knockout.

Even then, Spence would probably get the better of things, though that would be Porter’s best chance.

Still, might Spence have it in his mind that he needs to impress the PPV audience? That’s probably Porter’s only real chance to be in the fight.

Spence (25-0, 21 KOs) vs. Porter (30-2-1, 17 KOs) is the main event of the Premier Boxing Champions card on Fox PPV beginning on Saturday at 9 p.m. ET. Spence is the big favorite because there’s very little chance he’ll be outboxed by Porter. Porter’s toughness and aggressiveness are solid qualities, but he’s simply not skilled enough to outbox Spence.

Backing Spence is the easy call in this one, but let’s see about finding more value.

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Bet Yes on Fight To Go Distance Market at -220

Spence appeared to be a real puncher on his way up the rankings. But those bouts were against faded fighters who were a class or two below him in terms of talent. Judging by his last fight, he probably won’t have the ability to simply walk right over upper-level elites like Porter.

That’s pretty common in boxing. Heck, even the best fighter in the last 20 years, Floyd Mayweather Jr, made most of his money by coasting to unanimous decision victories. And remember when middleweight knockout machine Gennadiy Golovkin actually fought someone on the same level skill-wise in Canelo Alvarez? Even Golovkin was suddenly mortal.

So Spence is likely to look the same against Porter. While Spence is a fantastic body puncher with real power in both hands, he proved last time out against a much smaller Mikey Garcia that discretion in boxing is the better form of valor.

So Spence is logically the big favorite in the fight against Porter, but the most likely outcome is that he wins eight or nine rounds to score the unanimous decision win. On top of that, Porter is more a mauler than a one-punch knockout artist. So even if he miraculously scored the big upset, it’d have to be a rough and ugly fight that the judges would decide.

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Bet Spence By Decision at -163

Backing Spence by decision at -163 via BetAmerica is probably the best bet on the board. To win the fight the easiest way, Spence will need to keep Porter at the end of his jab and cross. Porter’s only hope would be by using his battering-ram jab to bore into Spence’s chest, and once inside he would need to basically throw the kitchen sink.

But Spence won’t be keen on just standing there to let him do that. Instead, Spence will pivot away and box off his back foot. He might stand in the pocket in the later rounds after Porter is tired from chasing him around the ring. But even then, he’s already shown recently that at this stage of his career-- there’s just too much money at stake to try anything foolish--he’s perfectly happy to let the judges tally their scores.

Back Benavidez at -700 against Dirrell

The card also features a solid matchup in the super middleweight division between David Benavidez and Anthony Dirrell for the latter’s WBC 168-pound title. It’s solid because if Benavidez isn’t the real deal, Dirrell is capable of winning.

Dirrell (33-1-1, 24 KOs) enters the contest the champion, but don’t let that trivial matter sway you into backing him to pull the upset. Benavidez (21-0, 18 KOs) is an undefeated 22-year-old former titleholder who looked dominant is stopping J’Leon Love earlier this year and is still at the stage of his career where he should keep improving every time out. Moreover, Benavidez already won the same WBC title Dirrell is wearing and only lost it because he failed a drug test.

Basically, Benavidez is the real deal.

In essence, this is a classic crossroads fight. Dirrell, 34, probably has the best days of his boxing career behind him. He relies heavily on being a better athlete than his opponent, but that’s something that starts to slip away around his age. He’ll likely be overwhelmed by the younger fighter’s constant activity and harder punches, and Benavidez will nab the win.

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