Texas Governor Odds: Abbot Huge Favorite Over O'Rourke

Incumbent Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott is the runaway favorite to win a third term in office as per the latest politics odds, yet Texas Democrats are still hopeful that their party’s chosen gubernatorial candidate, Beto O’Rourke, can disrupt the GOP’s iron grip on state-wide offices – somehow.

UK bookmaker Ladbrokes has Abbott installed as the odds-on favorite at -1000 to win in the 2022 Midterm Elections this fall – a price highpoint he’s enjoyed since he won his party’s nomination back in March, defeating a band of challengers with relative ease.

This same sportsbook prices O’Rourke as a distant long-shot bet with a price tag of +550 – a price point that was set almost as soon as the former Senate (2018) and Presidential (2020) candidate won the Democratic primary this spring.

Political betting is not legal in the United States. But it is over in Europe where bookmakers offer political betting odds such as these, known as “specials.” American news media often quote these odds for reference. Should betting on politics become legal in the U.S., it’s bound to be a hit with online sportsbooks and their betting apps this side of the Atlantic.

2022 Texas Governor Odds

Odds courtesy of Ladbrokes, current as of Aug. 25, 2022

O’Rourke Faces Uphill Battle

Former congressman O’Rourke has experience running in tough races after giving Ted Cruz a serious run for his money in the 2018 Senate Elections. He even, ever so briefly, threw his hat into the Democratic race for the 2020 US Presidential nomination before suspending his bid. But with less than 100 days left before voters go to the ballot box on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, it’s interesting to note his lack of progress in the Texas Governor’s race, as far as the betting is concerned.

The Democratic candidate’s odds haven’t moved either way on the political odds board in several months now as tracked by Bookies.com. That fact alone underscores his uphill battle in the face of the GOP’s iron grip on the Lone Star State.

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O’Rourke is hoping to capitalize on the disenfranchisement of Texans, who are concerned about the direction the state is taking. However, he’s also having to weather the storm of national discontent that is directed at the Democrats and especially President Joe Biden. Texans, like many Americans, are struggling with the cost of living crisis, rising inflation, growing unemployment, and ongoing Covid-19 restrictions.

The last time the Democrats held office in Texas was over three decades ago. Should he pull off the unthinkable, he would be the first Democratic Governor since Ann Richards, who took up residence in the Governor’s mansion in 1990.

O’Rourke shot to national fame in 2018. Although he lost to Cruz, it was a narrow defeat decided by merely 2.6% (or 219,000 votes) in Cruz’s favor. Few expected the race to be so close then. Could it be so again despite the stacked odds against O'Rourke?

GOP Banking on Political Cache

While the Texas Governor’s race is cornered in Abbott’s camp by the bookmakers, pollsters are projecting a much tighter race for the two-term incumbent.

Polls are showing a tightening race in recent months, in the wake of a series of tragic events that have gripped Texas this summer – from one of the deadliest school shootings in American history to the most horrific migrant death tragedies in North America. Previous events such as the electrical grid failing last winter only add to the growing frustration of many Texans.

That said, Abbott still has a 7-point lead according to an August poll by the Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler. It’s not a huge lead, but it might be enough to see Abbott through to a third term in office, as the odds suggest.

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