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By Patrick Surlis | | 5 mins

UEFA Champions League Final Odds: Man City vs Chelsea Picks

UEFA Champions League Final Odds: Man City vs Chelsea Picks

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It’s an all-English affair in the 2021 UEFA Champions League final, with Chelsea set to face Manchester City at the Estadio do Dragao in Porto, Portugal.

Chelsea may be underdog according to the best soccer betting sites, but coach Thomas Tuchel has already orchestrated two victories over Pep Guardiola’s Man City team since the German replaced Frank Lampard at Stamford Bridge in January.

It should be a tightly-contested final, and there are plenty of eye-catching markets across the best sportsbooks for bettors looking to wager on Saturday’s 3 p.m. ET kickoff.

Champions League Final Odds To Back

Bet Odds
Manchester City Moneyline-114 ( DraftKings)
Phil Foden To Score+300 ( DraftKings)
Under 2.5 Goals -155 ( BetMGM)
Draw Match & A Goal In Both Halves+700 ( FOX Bet)
Rodri To Get A Card+240 ( DraftKings)

Odds current as of publication. Check out the latest Manchester City vs Chelsea Champions League Final odds

Manchester City Moneyline

Manchester City is the favorite for a reason. The reigning Premier League champions cantered to another domestic league win this season after initially stumbling out of the gate. With their Premier League title a formality for more than a month, Guardiola has been afforded the luxury of rotating players and therefore keeping them fresh for May 29.

The Champions League title has been the priority since Guardiola took charge in 2016, but so far it has eluded him - and City. With his players well rested, he will fancy his chances of winning the competition for the first time in the club's history. Tuchel’s Chelsea have been a thorn in City’s side this year, upsetting the soccer odds to beat City twice in the last two months.

However, since their surprise 2-1 win at the Etihad on May 8, Chelsea has lost three of its last four matches, losing its FA Cup final to Leicester City and only clinching qualification for next year’s Champions League on the final day of the Premier League season.

City should have too much depth and too much quality for its opponents, and the moneyline looks like great value.

Phil Foden To Score (+300 at DraftKings)

In Guardiola’s favored "False 9" system, Foden has stepped up to establish himself as one of City’s most dangerous attacking threats. He has 16 goals in all competitions for City this season, including three in the Champions League.

Foden scored and was man of the match in both the first leg and second leg of City’s quarterfinal victory over Borussia Dortmund, and came close on several occasions to finding the net in the semifinals against Paris Saint-Germain.

Regardless of who Guardiola opts to play as his "False 9," whether it be Kevin De Bruyne, Riyad Mahrez or Foden, the diminutive Englishman will be causing Chelsea problems around their 18-yard box.


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Under 2.5 goals

Champions League finals are typically cagey, with last year’s match-up between Bayern Munich and PSG - two high-scoring teams – a case in point. With Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and Robert Lewandowski on the pitch, plus a host of other top-quality attacking names, the match ended 1-0 with just five shots on target across both teams.

When you factor in Tuchel’s impressive defensive record since taking the Chelsea job – 18 clean sheets from 29 matches – the Under looks even more appealing.

Draw Match & A Goal In Both Halves (+700 with FOX Bet)

They say familiarity breeds contempt. In soccer, familiarity often breeds caution.

Of the seven finals in the 21st century to be contested by two teams from the same country, five of them had two or fewer goals after 90 minutes (see our Under bet above). Of those five, four went to extra time and three ended the 90 minutes at 1-1.

Teams often take less risks in a final, too afraid to make a costly mistake that gifts the opposition the trophy. It’s especially the case when two teams from the same country meet, as they will have played at least twice already in their domestic league season.

Manchester City and Chelsea will playing for the third time in six weeks, which means each team has had plenty of opportunity to scout its opposition’s strengths and weaknesses firsthand.


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To Get A Card – Rodri (+240 with DraftKings)

Chelsea’s gameplan will likely involve sitting deep in defense and breaking fast on the counterattack.

Tuchel’s team is set up well to catch City on the break. In Timo Werner and Christian Pulisic, he has quick players capable of springing an offside trap, while the likes of Kai Havertz, Mason Mount and N’Golo Kante all possess the technique, intelligence and stamina to make deep runs from midfield.

In fact, Kante was particularly effective in attack in both of Chelsea’s semifinal games against Real Madrid.

Manchester City is not shy of a tactical foul to stop a dangerous counter-attack, and Rodri is its best bet to take one for the team should Chelsea burst forward. The Spaniard leads City with seven yellow cards in all competitions this season, and he’s a good bet to make it eight on Saturday.


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About the Author

Patrick Surlis for
Patrick Surlis
Patrick Surlis is an Editor at Previously, Patrick was Head of Content at GiveMeSport and a Digital Sports Journalist at Sky Sports.