United Rentals 500 Predictions: NASCAR At Phoenix Odds, Picks & Best Bets

By David Caraviello

Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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NASCAR bettors were dealt a bit of a jolt last week when one of the championship favorites was knocked out of the running—not on the racetrack, but on the snowy slopes of a Colorado mountain.

A broken leg suffered by Chase Elliott in a snowboarding accident has sidelined the Hendrick Motorsports standard-bearer for at least six weeks.

NASCAR seems certain to grant Elliott an injury waiver for the playoffs, and his title futures still remained a lofty +950 on betting sites (third on the board behind Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson) heading to Phoenix Raceway this week, where Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are co-odds favorites to win.

The injury certainly takes a viable race contender off the table for the near future—including Sunday at Phoenix, where Elliott’s career average finish of 11.9 ranks fourth-best among active drivers.

Josh Berry, his replacement last week at Las Vegas and on oval tracks going forward, isn’t going to move the needle for anyone. NASCAR betting fans now watch to see whether Elliott’s NASCAR odds are impacted by his recovery, and whether he faces any effects from the injury when he comes back.

United Rentals 500 NASCAR Odds

Driver	Win	Top 3	Top 5
Joey Logano	+800 at DraftKings	+225 at DraftKings	+120 at DraftKings
Ryan Blaney	+850 at DraftKings	+250 at DraftKings	+125 at DraftKings
Kyle Larson	+850 at DraftKings	+250 at DraftKings	+125 at DraftKings
Denny Hamlin	+900 at DraftKings	+250 at DraftKings	+140 at DraftKings
Christopher Bell	+900 at DraftKings	+340 at DraftKings	+170 at DraftKings
Kyle Busch	+900 at DraftKings	+250 at DraftKings	+140 at DraftKings
Ross Chastain	+1000 at DraftKings	+300 at DraftKings	+150 at DraftKings
William Byron	+1000 at DraftKings	+300 at DraftKings	+150 at DraftKings

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook review.

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United Rentals 500 NASCAR Betting Tips

Kevin Harvick isn’t just one of the best active drivers at Phoenix—he’s one of the best ever on the D-shaped oval, with nine career wins (at least seven more than anyone else competing now) and a career average finish of 8.7.

Harvick has finished in the top 10 an amazing 19 consecutive times at the desert mile, including fifth last fall. If there’s any place where the Stewart-Haas driver could steal a victory before sliding into retirement, this is it.

Harvick is one of four active drivers with multiple victories at Phoenix, a group that also includes Kyle Busch and Logano (three each) and Denny Hamlin (two). Busch has finished seventh in three straight Phoenix races, part of a stretch in which he’s cracked the top 10 in 13 out of 15 starts.

Logano won the most recent race at Phoenix, his title clincher last fall, and has finished in the top 10 in eight of his last nine starts on the 1-mile layout. Hamlin has been eighth or better in six of his last eight races at Phoenix.

But there are plenty of wagering possibilities even outside of those mainstays. Kyle Larson has been ninth or better in seven of his last eight Phoenix starts, a span that includes a 2021 victory.

Blaney has never won at Phoenix, but he’s been fourth, fourth and second over his last three appearances there. Chase Briscoe, who won this race in a shocker last year, followed that up with a fourth-place run in the fall. Phoenix has been around forever, and lots of drivers love the place, and which lends itself to more betting options than you might find at other tracks.

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United Rentals 500 Best Bets & NASCAR Predictions

Ryan Blaney to Win

Odds: +850 at DraftKings

Blaney is on a winless streak that now stretches back 46 starts, a ridiculous span for a driver and a Penske Racing team which are far better than that.

Phoenix is that situation in microcosm: No wins, but top-10s in seven of his last eight starts there. We also like the fact that Blaney has led 320 laps over his last four Phoenix races combined, proof that his No. 12 car can run at the front.

Kyle Larson Top 3

Odds: +250 at DraftKings

The Las Vegas runner-up was part of a Hendrick sweep of the top three positions last week, where he led 63 laps in the process.

Larson should pick right back up at Phoenix, where he’s been fantastic even dating back to his days in a Chip Ganassi car. It took an engine failure in this race last spring (a rare occurrence for a Hendrick car) to snap a streak of top-seven finishes at Phoenix that had dated back to 2028.

Kevin Harvick Top 5

Odds: +150 at DraftKings

Old guys rule, especially at Phoenix, where Harvick last season showed none of the acclimation issues that dogged him in the next-gen car at other tracks. It’s been nearly a decade since he finished worse than ninth in Phoenix, a span that includes sixth- and fifth-place runs in the current vehicle in 2022.

Granted, this isn’t the same driver who once won six out of eight races at Phoenix. But can he still contend there? You bet.

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United Rentals 500 Time, Date and TV

When: 3:30 p.m. EDT

Where: Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, Ariz.

TV: FOX

About the Author

David Caraviello

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Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.