XFL Week 4 Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions

By Adam Thompson Apr 24th, 2025 3:15 PM EST

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With each new week, the XFL is becoming more and more like the NFL. In other words, unpredictable. 

All four games in Week 3 were decided by a single score, a similar trend from Week 1 but the opposite from what was seen in a blowout-filled Week 2 of action. 

If you believe the oddsmakers on betting apps, Week 4 could flip back into less-close games. The point spreads for all four games are between -4 and -8.5.

As oddsmakers realize the XFL is a league of haves and have-nots, point spreads have consistently risen. The average Week 1 point spread was -3 at betting sites. It was -4 for Week 2, -4.5 in Week 3 and now -5.75 for this weekend. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson is 6-2 picking XFL games this season (75%). Here he breaks down the XFL Week 4 schedule and offers his XFL best bets for the slate. 

XFL Week 4 Picks & Best Bets

All odds accurate as of publication. Hit 'Bet Now' below to get a $1,000 first bet offer from BetMGM Sportsbook to use on the XFL in Week 4. If your first bet loses, you'll get it back (up to a maximum of $1,000) in bet credits.

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Saturday, March 11

Houston Roughnecks at Orlando Guardians (+8.5, 37.5)

As bad as the Guardians have been – they’ve scored the fewest points in the league while allowing the most – in terms of moving the ball they’re solidly mediocre. They rank No. 2 in yards per rush, and that should be their focus here against a Houston team that’s No. 1 vs. the pass. 

Houston is unbeaten, but this is its first road game. We’re not sure how much that really means in the XFL, but Orlando lost just 10-9 last week. The Guardians are figuring it out to some extent. 

XFL Best Bet: Guardians +8.5 at the best online sportsbooks

San Antonio Brahmas at Seattle Sea Dragons (-4.5, 40.5)

The Sea Dragons offense has been tough to slow, the XFL’s No. 1 pass offense and No. 3 in rushing. The Brahmas are better at slowing it down and running the ball. Each has found victory and defeat by close margins. 

What’s interesting here is each team should have an advantage when rushing the ball, but not as much when trying to pass. That plays into the hands of the run-first Brahmas. Seattle hasn’t played a game decided by more than four points yet, and we don’t expect it here. 

XFL Best Bet: Brahmas +4.5

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Sunday, March 12

Arlington Renegades at St. Louis BattleHawks (-4, 36.5)

Arlington has allowed just 17.3 ppg through three weeks, the second-best mark in the league. The BattleHawks just suffered their first loss last week, but by many accounts have the XFL’s second-worst defense. 

St. Louis finally gets its home opener, but this seems like too many points, all things considered. Arlington ranks No. 2 in passing the ball and No. 1 in defending it. The matchups favor the road team, and it’s tough to imagine homefield advantage being this big. 

XFL Best Bet: Renegades +4

Vegas Vipers at D.C. Defenders (-6, 41)

The Vipers rank dead-last in both pass yards allowed and rushing yards allowed – that’s not easy to do. The latter is going to be the issue against a D.C. side that is averaging 149.7 rush yards per game. No other XFL team is averaging more than 99. 

These are the two worst pass defenses, so it stands to reason that both sides will find scoring opportunities. There’s a chance D.C. takes the air out of the ball and runs at will on the Vegas defense. The Defenders will score a lot either way. We’ll bet on the Vipers chipping in. 

XFL Best Bet: Over 41

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.