Six weeks down, six weeks to go in the inaugural reboot season of the XFL. We have one unbeaten team remaining, one winless side, teams that can score and others that can defend. 

So far, games are averaging 40.4 points. How does that compare to the NFL? Not great. NFL games in 2022 averaged 43.8 ppg, which marked the second-lowest total since 2009. The last time the NFL averaged under 40.4 ppg was 1993. 

But XFL TV ratings have held relatively steady. A move to ABC for some games in Week 6 led to a solid boost in numbers. More scoring and fewer punts wouldn’t hurt. As one can judge from the XFL betting picks below, that is not the Week 7 expectation of this analyst. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has hit on 60% of his XFL picks so far (12-8). Here he breaks down the XFL Week 7 schedule and offers his Week 7 XFL best bets. 

XFL Week 7 Picks

Friday, March 31

Seattle Sea Dragons at Arlington Renegades (+4.5, 37.5)

The Sea Dragons are 4-2 because they pass over teams. No team throws more or for more yards than them. But the Renegades own the XFL’s top pass defense. 

The problem with backing Arlington on sports betting apps is it can’t score. Its 13 ppg is easily the lowest and the team is bottom-two passing and running. Only one Renegades game has gone over 37 points, and that was in Week 1 (42). Three of their last four games haven’t hit 25. 

Pick: Under 37.5

Saturday, April 1

San Antonio Brahmas at Vegas Vipers  (-3, 39.5)

The one-win Vipers shouldn’t be favored over anyone, regardless of game location. Their lone win was a 35-32 shootout with the 0-6 Guardians and they rank either last or second-to-last in my key metrics. The only semi-strength is passing offense, but San Antonio’s best trait is its passing defense. 

The Brahmas don’t score, but they don’t allow many points, either. Their last three games have totaled 24, 22 and 21 points. A total this high suggests San Antonio finds its way. 

Pick: Brahmas +3

D.C. Defenders at Orlando Guardians (+10, 45.5)

On paper, the Guardians aren’t the worst team in the XFL. In fact, they rank in the upper half in both passing and rushing the ball, and are only a smidge below average on defense. And yet they’re 0-6, and host the undefeated Defenders. 

D.C. is the only team that runs the ball regularly and with massive success. But the Defenders also rank dead last vs. the pass. Teams keep it close, with only two of their six wins by double-figures. Three of Orlando’s last four losses were by 1, 3 and 7 points. 

Pick: Guardians +10

Sunday, April 2

St. Louis BattleHawks at Houston Roughnecks (-3, 44.5)

Neither team has any clear strength matched up against an opponent weakness. In terms of statistics, in terms of record, in terms of points allowed, they’re nearly identical. Houston has put up more points, but one could argue its strength of schedule has been lower in the South Division. 

Combined, these teams score an average of 50.2 ppg, well over the total. But it’s set there before they allow a combined 37.5 ppg, pretty much the middle of the pack in terms of defense. With strengths canceling each other out, expect more punts than usual. 

Pick: Under 44.5

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