Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 3 mins

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Top NFL Week 15 Parlays: ‘Points Loaded’ and ‘Rebound Spot'

Top NFL Week 15 Parlays: ‘Points Loaded’ and ‘Rebound Spot'
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Mismatches on paper often turn into mismatches on the field. But as far as the spread is concerned, are big favorites usually given too many points?

In 32 games through the first 14 weeks of the NFL season, the favorite has been giving 10 or more points. Backing those teams blindly would have lost you money — teams favored by double figures are 14-18 against the spread. It hasn’t gotten better lately — teams at -10 or better are 3-6 ATS the last four weeks, and 7-2 straight up.


CHECK OUT: Bookies.com NFL Week 15 Betting Power Rankings


Here are a couple of Week 15 NFL picks and parlays that take that success into consideration, while looking to capitalize on some other trends around the league.

Best NFL Week 15 Parlays

ParlayOdds
Sportsbook
DEN ATS, ATL ATS, IND ATS+596
William Hill
NE ATS, CLE ATS, BUF ATS+599
BetMGM

Odds are current as of publication but subject to change.

The “Points Loaded” Parlay

Leg 1: Broncos +9.5

The Chiefs got it done at New England last week, though a correct N’Keal Harry TD call might have led to a different ending. With the win, KC is 4-2 over its last six games, with three of those wins by seven points or less (the fourth was a rout of the floundering Raiders). Drew Lock has steered the Broncos in a new direction and forced defenses to pay attention to the Denver pass game. That could lead to a big game by Phillip Lindsay against the Chiefs’ 28th-ranked run defense.

Leg 2: Falcons +11

The Niners are coming off a rousing 48-46 win over the Saints, but they come into this game roughed up and wrought with injury. The rejuvenated Falcons are 3-2 since their bye week, with road wins against the Saints and Panthers. Atlanta has become masters of the backdoor cover, scoring meaningless points in the fourth quarter of blowout losses. We’re getting enough points to take that into consideration here, too.

Leg 3: Colts +9.5

A big reason the Colts keep games close is quarterback Jacoby Brissett. He has 18 touchdowns and just six interceptions this season.
A big reason the Colts keep games close is quarterback Jacoby Brissett. He has 18 touchdowns and just six interceptions this season.

The Colts have seven losses, but only one of them was by more than a TD (due to a blocked FG returned for a TD). The Colts keep games close and, lately, so have the Saints, who additionally have covered just twice in six home games. New Orleans is 1-2 ATS when favored by more than seven points, one of those was a straight-up loss and the lone cover was against the downtrodden Cardinals.

The “Rebound Spot” Parlay

Leg 1: Patriots -9.5

The Pats are reeling, having lost two straight and managing no more than 22 points in any of the last five games. But all five games were against playoff contenders, and New England has annihilated the weak. Against non-contenders, New England is 6-0 with an average final score of 34-8. The Bengals have been better with Andy Dalton back under center, but nothing will come easy against the Pats’ top-ranked defense. Anything under -10 looks like a real solid play here.

Leg 2: Browns -2.5

For the season, Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown 15 touchdowns against 16 interceptions.
For the season, Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown 15 touchdowns against 16 interceptions.

The Browns have been successful when Baker Mayfield has a big game and doesn’t turn the ball over. It doesn’t happen often enough, hence Cleveland’s out-of-it status. But now he gets to face a Cardinals team that has allowed more passing yards and more passing TDs than any other team NFL, and has just six INTs all year (30th). Mayfield should step up and the Browns’ No. 9 pass defense can contain Kyler Murray.

Leg 3: Bills +2.5

The Steelers have won three in a row, the defense is playing real well and it’s at Heinz Field. But three things to keep in mind: First, Pittsburgh has won those three straight against the Bengals, Browns and Cardinals. Against playoff-level competition this season, the Steelers are 0-4. Second, the Bills’ third-ranked defense will provide a new level of challenge for Pittsburgh QB Devlin Hodges. And third, the Bills are 5-0-1 against the spread on the road.

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