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By Adam Thompson | | 3 mins

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Top Super Bowl 54 Parlay to Back: ‘Trends Align’ 4-Way Play

Top Super Bowl 54 Parlay to Back: ‘Trends Align’ 4-Way Play
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From every angle, NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has broken down the showdown between Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers. Here is his parlay play for the 2020 Super Bowl. Those who have wagered $100 on his parlays this season are up nearly $1,500.

Super Bowl 54 is upon us, and there are quite literally hundreds of ways to put some skin on the game. There are the traditional picks against the spread, on the Over/Under or straight up. You can see all of our NFL expert Super Bowl game picks here.

For those who have enjoyed playing the parlays this NFL betting season, here’s one last selection for the biggest game of all:

THE PARLAY: 49ers ATS + Kittle Over 5.5 Receptions + Mahomes More Pass Yards than Garoppolo + Shortest TD Over 1.5 Yards

THE ODDS: Bet it at +933 at DraftKings; you can also click on “CLAIM” at the top of the page to go to the DraftKings sportsbook and make your bet.

The Super Bowl 2020 ‘Trends Align’ Parlay

Leg 1: 49ers +1.5

The 49ers rushed for more yards than every team west of Baltimore. Only five teams allowed more yards on the ground this season than the Chiefs. Kansas City may go all-out to stop the run as it did against Derrick Henry and the Titans, but Jimmy Garoppolo is among the NFL’s elite play-action passers.

That plays into the Niners’ hands. Patrick Mahomes is a man among men, but the 49ers rank No. 1 against the pass and have the second-ranked defense overall. Teams with top-two defenses in the Super Bowl are 15-5.

COMPARE: Up-to-the-Minute Super Bowl 54 Odds From Top Sportsbooks

Leg 2: George Kittle Over 5.5 Receptions

Kittle ranks No. 1 for the 49ers by a wide margin in receptions, targets and yards. This is the Super Bowl, and Garoppolo isn’t going to stop looking for No. 85. In fact, he may see more opportunities than usual if the Chiefs sell out to stop the run. Kansas City is already among the poorest defenses when it comes to slowing tight ends.

Leg 3: Mahomes More Pass Yards than Garoppolo

Based on opportunity, based on game plan, based on propensity to take risks downfield, it all points to Mahomes outpassing Garoppolo. Mahomes has passed for 300-plus yards eight times in 15 games, and 260-plus yards 11 times. Garoppolo has gone for 300 yards just three times in 18 games, and 260 on six instances.

Leg 4: Shortest TD Over 1.5 Yards

Super Bowl betting trends favor the Under here as it’s hit in five of the last seven Super Bowls, and a big majority of playoff games the last seven seasons. That’s pushed the Over to a solid underdog line, and the 49ers and Chiefs haven’t had many 1-yard TDs this season. San Francisco hasn’t had any 1-yard TDs in 10 games and Kansas City hasn’t had any in its last 13 games.

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