Top Week 7 NFL Parlays: The ‘I Love LA’ & The ‘Close Games’
When it comes to coming through against the spread, two teams have performed above and beyond entering NFL Week 7 action. They are the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots, the lone remaining undefeated teams.
The 49ers (5-0) are 4-1 against the spread, one of three teams at 4-1 (along with the Bills and Lions). The Patriots (6-0) are 4-2 ATS, as are eight other teams.
But the Niners and Pats have dominated the competition to an extent that the spread has rarely been challenged. For San Francisco, their average margin of victory is 16.6 points – and 15.4 ppg over the average point spread. New England’s average margin is a ridiculous 23.7 ppg, which is 9.8 ppg above the ATS lines.
Here are a couple of Week 7 NFL picks and parlays that take that success into consideration, while looking to capitalize on some other trends around the league.
Best NFL Week 7 Parlays
| LAR -3, LAR-ATL Under 55.5,|
| MIN -1, NO-CHI Under 38.5, |
Odds are current as of publication but subject to change.
The “I Love L.A.” Parlay
Leg 1: Rams ATS
It’s not a stretch to say Jared Goff has been the NFL’s biggest surprise – in a negative way. The cure for what ails the inconsistent Goff should be the Falcons’ defense, which has allowed five of its six opponents to exceed their season average and doesn’t put pressure on quarterbacks. Atlanta hasn’t covered since Week 2 and the Rams are 5-2 ATS on the East Coast under coach Sean McVay.
Leg 2: Rams-Falcons Under
The Rams managed just seven points against the 49ers but should have no problem getting closer to their season average against the struggling Falcons. Los Angeles has scored only 22.5 ppg not counting the 40-point dustup against the Buccaneers.
Atlanta’s last two games have averaged 76 total ppg, but the four prior averaged 42.3 ppg. Adding Jalen Ramsey to L.A.’s defensive backfield doesn’t hurt.
Leg 3: Chargers ATS
The Chargers have looked terrible in their four losses, but all were by seven points or less. This is a good matchup for L.A. because of its run game. No team utilizes its running backs in the pass game more than the Chargers, and few have RBs who can break tackles like Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon. The Titans have struggled against this very thing.
Tennessee’s offense moves to Ryan Tannehill from Marcus Mariota, but since Week 3 no team has scored fewer points. The Chargers’ seventh-ranked defense can do its part as long as Philip Rivers and the offense don’t help the Titans (as they did vs. Pittsburgh).
The “Close Games” Parlay
Leg 1: Vikings ATS
Kirk Cousins is the x-factor, but he can get it done in the Motor City here. The Lions rank 28th against the pass and 27th against the run. The Vikings have a ton of weapons and Cousins can tear up the Lions if he has time to get them the ball.
Detroit ranks 26th in sacks, 22nd in INTs and 31st in QB pressures. All but one of the Lions’ games has been decided by four points or less. Laying one point offers a better price than the moneyline.
Leg 2: Saints-Bears Under
No team has pressured QBs more than the Bears. The Saints are No. 2 in that category. Teddy Bridgewater has an 18.8 QB rating when under pressure. New Orleans needs Alvin Kamara to have a big game, but the Bears’ strength is run defense.
Mitchell Trubisky has been better under pressure than when he has time in the pocket, but the Saints have allowed just 13.3 ppg the last three weeks against offenses with many more weapons.
Leg 3: Patriots ML
The Pats are favored by 9.5, a lot of points to give. I’m good with laying the points with the Pats as well, but this parlay offers a way to bet on a straight-up win. Sam Darnold had a great return in leading the Jets past the Cowboys last week, but the Patriots are allowing just 8.0 ppg and 235 ypg. QBs are completing only 53.5% of passes, and Darnold has struggled with his accuracy overall.
Tom Brady should be motivated after a rough effort against the Giants and his Pats have beaten the Jets seven straight times by an average of 19.3 ppg.