One day in Las Vegas can certainly change fortunes, for racecar drivers and sports bettors alike. Kyle Larson’s victory this past Sunday on the 1.5-mile Sin City oval completely altered the betting odds for the NASCAR title race, locking the Hendrick Motorsports driver into the “Championship 4” event at Phoenix and in the process making him the clear +150 favorite for the title.

What a difference from a week ago, when William Byron was the +330 championship favorite, ahead of Larson at +350. Betting apps clearly put some stock in recent history, given that Joey Logano last season and Larson in 2021 each went on to win the title after becoming the first drivers to clinch their spots in the championship race. 

Odds makers are so high on Larson that he also opened as the overwhelming +275 favorite (well ahead of +600 Martin Truex Jr. and Tyler Reddick) for Sunday’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

But again, there’s reason for that—Larson dominated last season’s race on the 1-mile South Florida oval, leading 199 laps and winning by over a second. NASCAR odds favor Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Truex to join Larson in the championship field on Nov. 5. But as Las Vegas showed, a whole lot can change in the span of one week. 

4EVER 400 Odds

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4EVER 400 Betting Tips

For all the understandable hype over Larson right now, it’s worth noting that the Hendrick driver has been rather inconsistent over the latter stages of the NASCAR Playoffs, suffering through three straight double-digit finishes before his victory at Las Vegas. 

And he’s also not the best active driver at Homestead—that mantle belongs to Hamlin, who owns three career victories on the flat oval and has started on the pole in six of his last eight races there.

Kyle Busch owns two career Homestead victories, but the Gibbs driver feels like more of a top-five or top-10 option given that we’re at the point in the season where nobody wants to be seen as impeding a championship contender. Truex and Byron also own victories at Homestead-Miami, those coming in 2017 and 2021 respectively. 

Among title contenders, Truex owns the best career average finish in Homestead at 9.7, just ahead of Hamlin at 9.8. Reddick has never won in South Florida, but he’s come close with a second and a fourth on the 1-mile track. Ryan Blaney finished third at Homestead in 2020, but it’s his lone single-digit finish in eight career starts at the track, while Chris Buescher has never cracked the top 10 there.

While this feels like a Larson/Hamlin/Truex/Byron/Reddick showdown at the front, potential value options can be found deeper in the field. Busch may be out of the title hunt, but he remains capable of a strong finish as evidenced by his back-to-back third-place finishes the past two weeks. Brad Keselowski has been top-10 in four of his last six starts in Homestead. And Austin Dillon has finished 11th or better in five of his last six in South Florida, including a career-best fourth in 2022.

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4EVER 400 3 Best Bets

Denny Hamlin to Win

Odds: +700 at Bet365

Pretty good value for a guy who’s been great at Homestead for much of his career, with top-10s in eight of his last 10 on the 1-mile track. We know the No. 11 car is going to be fast—it always is at Homestead, as evidenced by that ridiculous run of pole positions. Hamlin has also been top-10 in five straight playoff races on oval tracks and led 23 laps at Vegas before fading to 10th. With Homestead followed by Martinsville (where he’s won five times), the table seems set for the best driver without a title to clinch his spot in the Championship 4.

Christopher Bell Top 3

Odds: +350 at Bet365

The biggest potential party-crasher in the championship field is Bell, who led 61 laps at Las Vegas last week before finishing second to Larson. His car is consistently fast, as seen in the four poles he’s claimed in the playoff, and he’s been quietly solid throughout much of this playoff: eighth at Kansas, third at Bristol, fourth at Texas, second last week. 

While Bell’s Homestead track record isn’t the best—his top finish in three starts is eighth—that’s a very small sample size, and fast cars can check out on a 1-mile layout that places a huge onus on setup.

Kyle Busch Top 5

Odds: +250 at Bet365

Eliminated from the championship race two weeks ago, the pressure is off Busch, and he’s driving like a guy with nothing to lose. His back-to-back third-place finishes at Charlotte and Las Vegas the past two weeks mark his best consecutive results since he placed first and second at Gateway and Sonoma in early June. 

At Homestead, Busch has been top-10 in eight straight starts and 10 of his last 11. While there’s no title on the line, and it’s really hard for non-championship contenders to win races this time of year, Busch is showing that pride still counts for something. 

4EVER 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 2:30 p.m. EDT

Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway, Homestead, Fla.

TV: NBC

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