On Saturday night, Jon Jones puts his UFC light heavyweight title on the line against Thiago Santos at UFC 239, and the oddsmakers certainly seem to think he will be victorious.

Jones is a -600 favorite at 888Sport, with the comeback on Santos at +425. And while those odds may be long, they aren’t nearly long enough to reflect the reality of this fight.

Thiago Santos is a capable fighter with serious knockout power, but he is taking on likely the greatest fighter in the history of MMA, and a fighter who is better than him at everything save pure punching power.

Santos has the definition of “a puncher’s chance” in this one, meaning Jones as a straight bet should be at minimum a -900 favorite. So right off the bat, there is some excellent value in the straight line on Jones for fans of UFC betting.

UFC 239 Jones-Santos Best Odds

But looking at the prop bets is where things really get interesting. The variety of skills Jones possesses makes him a tricky fighter to predict, both for his opponents and his backers.

Jones can knock you out, submit you, or just cruise to an easy decision win, and he has not shown a preference for any of those choices, preferring to let the fight and the win come to him however it may.

Santos, on the other hand, does not. Santos is going to come out swinging for the fences and while a strategy like that gives him the best chance to pull off the upset, it also means Jones will likely end up taking Santos down and pounding him out with some of the most vicious elbows in MMA.

Given that, Jones by KO/TKO at +138 is my Best Bet for this fight.