The Octagon heads back to The O2 Arena in London, England this weekend for UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3. 

It’s a star-studded card that features the trilogy fight between UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman at the top, as well as 14 other undercard bouts beneath it. 

We’ll give our pick for the main event, as well as two other bouts, in our UFC picks and best bets for UFC 286.

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UFC 286 Main Event Best Bet

Kamaru Usman (-240) vs. Leon Edwards (+200)

The main event of UFC 286 is the trilogy match between UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards and former champ Kamaru Usman. Although he is the challenger this time around, Usman is a -240 favorite on sports betting sites to reclaim his title, which is what I believe he will do.

Usman lost his belt to Edwards last year at UFC when he was knocked out with a brutal head kick in the fifth round. Usman was winning most of the fight and was a minute away from defending his belt before the kick. Usman was mostly dominating with his wrestling, which is what the oddsmakers are suggesting he does once again. 

The 35-year-old Nigerian is one of the most decorated champions to ever step into the Octagon, and if he implements another wrestling-heavy gameplan, he should be able to get his belt back. He’s 15-1 overall in the UFC, and he’ll look to make that 16 wins when he goes up against Edwards.

That’s not to say Edwards is a bad fighter by any means, because he’s clearly elite. The 31-year-old Brit has an exceptional 12-2, 1 NC record in the Octagon, showing off tremendous striking skills as well as solid grappling throughout his UFC run. 

However, despite the late KO win over Usman last year, I’m still not convinced he’s the better fighter. These two have fought twice before, and Usman won the first fight before losing the second fight to a last-second Hail Mary. If Edwards can’t land that kick again, I don’t think he wins the trilogy. He obviously showed he has a kicker’s chance in the rematch, but I still don’t think he wins this trilogy fight.

Although Edwards pulled off a huge upset last summer, Usman was a minute away from winning a clear decision. As long as he doesn’t make another mistake this time around, Usman should be able to pull off a similar gameplan, only this time, win the fight. Give me Usman to win as a -240 favorite and take him to win the title with a decision victory for a prop.

UFC 286 Best Bet: Kamaru Usman wins at -240 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 286 Best Prop Bet: Kamaru Usman wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC 286 Best Bets

Rafael Fiziev (-230) vs. Justin Gaethje (+195)

The co-main event is a banger at lightweight between Rafael Fiziev and Justin Gaethje. Fiziev is a -230 UFC betting favorite, and I believe he will win this fight.

Fiziev is currently ranked at No. 6 in the UFC lightweight rankings, having gone 6-1 in the UFC, including his current six-fight win streak. The 30-year-old Fiziev has been on a roll lately, beating the likes of Rafael dos Anjos, Brad Riddell, and Renato Moicano all by knockout. 

He is one of the best strikers at 155lbs and he also has some of the best defensive wrestling in the whole UFC. He is closing in on a title shot and a big win over Gaethje would certainly get him there.

Speaking of Gaethje, he’s one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC and he has been ever since entering the Octagon back in 2017. The 34-year-old Gaethje is 6-4 since then, with five of his wins coming by way of knockout. He is an awesome striker and he can give one to take one. 

That being said, he has absorbed a ton of damage during his UFC career, and he may be on a decline at this point in his career. The human body can only absorb so much punishment, and we’ll find out against Fiziev if his chin can still take the shots, or if it’s too far gone now.

Both fighters hit hard, but Fiziev has near-perfect takedown defense and he should be the more effective striker on the feet, especially since he has far better head movement. I believe Fiziev will heavily damage Gaethje and finish him with strikes. Give me Fiziev at -230 and take him to win inside the distance for a prop.

UFC 286 Best Bet: Rafael Fiziev wins at -230 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 286 Best Prop Bet: Rafael Fiziev inside the distance at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Christian Duncan (-215) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+185)

On the preliminary card, Christian Duncan makes his UFC debut against Dusko Todorovic. Duncan is a -215 betting favorite, and I like him to have a successful Octagon debut.

Duncan is the former Cage Warriors middleweight champion and comes to the UFC with an unbeaten 7-0 record in MMA, with six wins by stoppage. The 27-year-old Brit is a hard hitter who throws heavy hands and also possesses nasty kicks. His wrestling is still a work in progress, but anytime he can keep his fights on the feet, he can finish his opponents.

That spells bad news for Todorovic, who has poor striking defense. The 28-year-old Serbian fighter is 3-3 so far in the UFC, with all three wins by knockout but two of his losses coming via strikes as well. He is dangerous if he can get his opponents to the mat and finish them with ground and pound, but on the feet, he is very flawed. His chin is often kept very high in the air, and that is not going to go well for Todorovic when he takes on Duncan in this fight.

Duncan packs a ton of power in his strikes, and Todorovic has questionable striking defense and a shaky chin. I believe Duncan will be able to fight off Todorovic’s takedown attempts and then land on the chin and finish him. Give me Duncan at -215 on betting apps and take him to win inside the distance.

UFC 286 Best Bet: Christian Duncan wins at -215 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 286 Best Prop Bet: Christian Duncan wins inside the distance at DraftKings Sportsbook

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