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UFC 290 Odds, Picks & Predictions For Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 10 mins

UFC 290 Odds, Picks & Predictions For Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez

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The Octagon heads back to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada this Saturday night for an epic pay-per-view card when UFC 290 goes down. 

The event features two title flights, including the headliner between UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski and interim champ Yair Rodriguez in a title unification bout. On top of that, there are 13 other bouts on the undercard. 

Read on as we give you our main event prediction and our UFC picks for two other great fights on this card. Also, keep in mind that yours truly will be there representing Bookies.com!

Favorite Underdog
Alexander Volkanovski | -380 Yair Rodriguez | +290

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

UFC 290 Main Event Best Bet

Alexander Volkanovski (-380) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+290)

In the main event of UFC 290, UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski takes on Yair Rodriguez, the interim champ, in a title unification bout. Volkanovski is a -380 betting apps favorite, and I believe he will once again defend his title.

Volkanovski is the best featherweight in the sport, and arguably the best 145lbs fighter of all time. The 34-year-old Aussie is 12-1 overall in the UFC, with 12 straight wins over featherweight opponents and his lone defeat coming against Islam Makhachev, who is arguably the best MMA fighter in the world right now. 

Although Volkanovski lost to Makhachev, the fight was about as close as it gets, and the fact that he performed so well up a weight class against a bigger opponent was nothing short of outstanding. 

Volkanovski has elite skills in every facet of the game and he has basically no weaknesses. He’s one of the best MMA fighters on the planet right now, and there is a reason why the oddsmakers have pegged him as a huge favorite here.

That being said, Rodriguez has a big opportunity on his hands here and he is going to do everything he can to shock the world and pull off a huge upset to claim the belt. The 30-year-old Mexican has been in the UFC since 2014 and he has a 10-2, 1 NC overall record in the Octagon. He has been so exciting to watch, showing off impressive skills on the feet with his striking while also exhibiting dangerous submissions on the mat. 

Rodriguez has performed at a high level in the UFC, but he’s going up against maybe the sport’s best fighters in Volkanovski. One thing to note is Rodriguez’s 63% takedown defense, which is poor. In a fight where Rodriguez’s best chance to win will be on the feet, look for Volkanovski to force the grappling.

Although Rodriguez is a creative striker who is highly entertaining to watch, this is a bad matchup for him. Volkanovski is arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet right now, and I favor him to win this fight as I see him being better on the feet and on the mat. I’m going with Volkanovski to get his hand raised after winning a decision over Rodriguez. Give me Volkanovski as a -390 betting favorite, and go with him to win by decision for a prop bet.

UFC 290 Best Bet: Alexander Volkanovski wins at -380 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC 290 Best Prop Bet: Alexander Volkanovski wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook  

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Other UFC 290 Best Bets

Jalin Turner (-255) vs. Dan Hooker (+215)

On the prelims, Jalin Turner fights Dan Hooker at lightweight. Turner is a -255 betting favorite, and I like him to get the win.

Turner is 28 years old and he has a 6-3 record in the UFC since making his debut back in 2019. The American is the No. 10 ranked lightweight in the UFC and he just keeps getting better and better every time we see him step into the cage. Although he lost a close decision to Mateusz Gamrot in his last fight, it was a very close fight, and it doesn’t take anything away from his five-fight win streak before that. 

Turner is a finisher on the feet and on the mat, making him one of the most dangerous fighters currently at 155 lbs. He is also huge for the division and he uses his reach better than most fighters. He’s had a great run so far, and a win over Hooker would be huge for his career, as it would be the biggest name that he’s defeated so far in the Octagon.

Hooker is 33 years of age and the New Zealander has been in the UFC for nearly a decade, amassing a 12-8 record in the Octagon while fighting many of the best fighters in the world. The No. 11 ranked lightweight currently in the UFC, Hooker has been nothing short of being one of the promotion’s most exciting fighters for many years now. 

That being said, all of that excitement and all of those wars that he’s been in have come at a price, as Hooker has taken an extraordinary amount of damage during his UFC career. Although Hooker won his last fight, he had lost four of five fights before that and appeared to be reaching the decline phase of his career. Credit to Hooker for fighting elite opponents, but it has taken a large toll on his body.

Turner is one of the biggest lightweights on the roster and, at age 28, I believe he is just entering the prime of his career, while I think Hooker is on the decline. On a card full of massive favorites, Turner seems reasonably priced at -255. Give me Turner to win as a -255 betting favorite, and go with him to win this fight by knockout if you want to bet on a prop.

UFC 290 Best Bet: Jalin Turner wins at -255 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC 290 Best Prop Bet: Jalin Turner wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook  

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Yazmin Jauregui (-390) vs. Denise Gomes (+295)

Also on the prelims, Yasmin Jauregui fights Denise Gomes in a women’s strawweight bout. Jauregui is a -390 favorite, and I like her to get his hand raised.

Jauregui is just 24 years old and is already 2-0 in the UFC with two impressive wins over Iasmin Lucindo and Istela Nunes, the latter by knockout. 

The Mexican prospect is undefeated as a pro with 10 wins, and she continues to improve every time we see her. She is an excellent striker who is fairly sound defensively, and she will put up fun fights for the fans. That being said, we still need to see more of her grappling in future fights. She is also untested against a higher level of competition, but from what we’ve seen so far, she is a good fighter with a lot of potential.

Gomes is just 23 years of age and the Brazilian is 1-1 in the UFC with a knockout win over Bruna Brasil and a decision loss to Loma Lookboonmee. She is also a very good striker with knockout power, and we’ve also seen some glimpses of her grappling in the UFC.

 Like Jauregui, Gomes is also untested against a high level of competition, but she has still been fairly impressive so far. That being said, we have also seen some holes in her game, holes that a fighter such as Jauregui can exploit, which is why the betting odds are long for this matchup.

Jauregui is one of the strawweight division’s best prospects, and I like her to continue her winning streak with a win on the scorecards over Gomes. Look for Jauregui to be the more effective striker and win this fight as a -390 betting favorite. For a prop, take her by decision.

UFC 290 Best Bet: Yazmin Jauregui wins at -390 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC 290 Best Prop Bet: Yazmin Jauregui wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook  

About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.