UFC 292: Sterling vs. O’Malley takes place on Saturday at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. There are 12 fights in total, including two title fights at the top of the billing. In this week’s Bookies.com UFC picks, we will break down the headliner plus two undercard bouts.

UFC 292 Main Event Best Bet

Aljamain Sterling (-265) vs. Sean O’Malley (+215)

The UFC 292 main event features UFC bantamweight Aljamain Sterling against top contender Sean O’Malley. Sterling is a -265 UFC betting favorite and I think he will successfully defend his title.

Sterling is the undisputed champion at 135 lbs, and considering this is the deepest weight class in the sport right now, it speaks volumes to how talented and dangerous of a fighter Sterling is. The 34-year-old American is 15-3 in the UFC since first joining the promotion back in 2014, and he’s won his last nine fights while fighting all killers, picking up notable wins over the likes of Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan, and Cory Sandhagen. 

Sterling is the best grappler in the division and he is able to take down most of his opponents and beat them on the ground. He’s also improved his striking over the years, making him the most well-rounded fighter at 135 lbs. Sterling should have a clear wrestling edge against O'Malley and win the fight on the ground.

As good as Sterling is, O’Malley will be looking to get in there and upset the apple cart with a big underdog win. The 28-year-old American joined the UFC in 2017, and he’s gone 8-1, 1 NC so far in the world’s leading MMA promotion. 

O’Malley was fighting mostly lower-ranked opposition for years, and while he was looking impressive and knocking them all out, the overall level of competition was poor. However, the UFC in the last few years has finally decided to give him a step up in competition, and O’Malley proved he’s a top fighter when he beat Yan in his last bout. 

We all knew that O’Malley had elite striking, but against Yan, he proved his heart by winning a split decision. Against Sterling, O’Malley is going to need to stop the takedowns and keep this fight off the ground. If he can do that, he can win, but if he gets taken down, it will be a bad night.

Sterling should have a big advantage in the grappling department, and I fully expect him to utilize wrestling as his main path to victory in this fight. Although I see O’Malley being tough and putting up a good fight, ultimately all of the takedowns will be too much for him to overcome. Look for Sterling to win this fight at -265, and look for him to get the job done by decision.

UFC 292 Best Bet: Aljamain Sterling wins -265 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 292 Best Prop Bet: Aljamain Sterling wins by decision +180 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

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Other UFC 292 Best Bets

Ian Garry (-298) vs. Neil Magny (+240)

Also on the main card, welterweights Ian Garry and Neil Magny collide. Garry is a -298 favorite and I like him to not only win this fight but finish Magny. Garry is a 25-year-old Irish fighter who has been in the UFC since 2021, going a perfect 5-0 during that time with three knockout wins, including a head kick TKO victory over Daniel Rodriguez in his last fight. 

The win over Rodriguez helped push Garry into the top-15 welterweight rankings and it earned him a fight against Geoff Neal, who unfortunately had to pull out. In steps Magny on short notice, and for Garry, this appears to be an easier matchup. After being a -198 favorite against Neal, Garry is now a -298 favorite against Magny. Given Garry’s clean striking technique, KO power, and defensive grappling skills, these odds make sense.

Don’t get me wrong, Magny is a great fighter and he’s proven that since joining the UFC in 2013, going 21-9 in the Octagon while fighting many of the best welterweights the sport has to offer. However, at age 36, he might finally be reaching the decline phase in his MMA career. He did not look very good against Phil Rowe in his last fight, and although he won it, it was not an impressive showing. 

He had also lost two of three fights before that, albeit to elite competition. Although Magny is someone who will defeat the majority of the unranked opposition in the UFC welterweight division, going up against a top prospect like Garry could prove to be a tough fight. Magny is going to have to wrestle if he wants to win this because he’ll likely be KO’d standing.

I would have picked Garry in this matchup regardless, but given the fact that Magny took this fight on short notice, I love this matchup for Garry even more. Look for Garry to show off his striking techniques in this fight and knock Magny out. Take Garry as a -298 betting favorite and lean towards him to win by TKO for a prop bet given his big KO power and Magny’s iffy chin.

UFC 292 Best Bet: Ian Garry wins -298 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC 292 Best Prop Bet: Ian Garry wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook  

Natalia Silva (-345) vs. Andrea Lee (+275)

On the preliminary card, Natalia Silva fights Andrea Lee at women’s flyweight. Silva is a -345 betting favorite and I like her to style on Lee and get her hand raised in this fight. Silva is just 26 years old and the Brazilian made her UFC debut last year, defeating Jasmine Jasudavicius with a dominant decision. Silva followed that up by knocking out both Tereza Bleda and Victoria Leonardo. 

She has shown exceptional striking skills so far in the UFC, but she also has an excellent ground game as well, making her a very well-rounded fighter. Given how young she is, Silva can make significant improvements from fight to fight. She has looked outstanding in the UFC, and if she beats Lee, it would boost her stock even more.

Lee has been in the UFC since 2018, going 5-5 overall against generally solid competition. The 34-year-old American is a skilled striker who also possesses a decent ground game, making her a solid fighter in the women’s 125 lbs weight class. 

However, she has settled into more of the role of gatekeeper in her weight class rather than being a contender. Given the fact Lee has never been finished in the UFC, it makes sense why she’s being used as a litmus test for younger fighters. Against Silva, it looks like a tough test, thus she enters it as a big underdog.

I believe Silva will be the faster, more powerful, and more athletic fighter in this matchup, and I believe she will land a number of significant strikes on Lee and deal heavy damage to her opponent. Take Silva to win this fight as a -345 favorite and take her to win by decision for a prop because Lee is so durable and tough to put away, having never been knocked out before.

UFC 292 Best Bet: Natalia Silva wins -345 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC 292 Best Prop Bet: Natalia Silva wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook  

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