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UFC 293 Odds, Picks & Predictions For Adesanya vs. Strickland

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 10 mins

UFC 293 Odds, Picks & Predictions For Adesanya vs. Strickland

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UFC 293 goes down this Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. The card features 12 fights in total, including UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya putting his belt on the line against Sean Strickland in the main event. 

We’ll break down the headliner plus two other undercard bouts and give our UFC picks in the latest edition of Best Bets right here at Bookies.com.

Favorite Underdog
Israel Adesanya | -600 Sean Strickland | +440

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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UFC 293 Main Event Best Bet

Israel Adesanya (-600) vs. Sean Strickland (+440)

The main event of UFC 293 features UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya taking on No. 5 ranked contender Sean Strickland. Adesanya is a massive -600 UFC betting favorite, and I see him winning this fight in a devastating fashion.

Adesanya is the best middleweight in the UFC right now and, when it’s all said and done, will be a UFC Hall of Famer. The 34-year-old Nigerian-born, New Zealand-based Adesanya is 13-2 overall in the UFC since first joining the promotion in 2018. What he has accomplished in the five years since then has been incredible, as he’s picked up huge wins over the likes of Robert Whittaker (twice), Alex Pereira, and Anderson Silva. 

He is one of the most talented strikers we have ever seen in the sport, as he has incredible techniques and massive knockout power. At 185 lbs, Adesanya has very few flaws in his game. Outside of a fifth-round TKO loss to Pereira, a defeat he later avenged, he’s been perfect at middleweight and is -600 to get another win.

Strickland has looked great as of late with back-to-back wins over Abus Magomedov and Nassourdine Imavov. The 32-year-old American has been in the UFC dating back to 2014, and he holds a 14-5 record in the world’s biggest MMA league, so he’s clearly an excellent fighter. 

He has fought some of the best in the world at both 185 lbs and 170 lbs, and he’s had a lot of success inside the Octagon. That being said, there are levels to this game. While Strickland is a great striker in his own right, he’s definitely not as good as Adesanya on the feet. Strickland is tough and he will try his best here, but the stylistic matchup is not in his favor in this fight.

Although Strickland winning would really shake up the UFC middleweight division, it seems unlikely. This is a striker vs. striker matchup, and Adesanya is the better striker in terms of both power and technique. Look for Adesanya to pick Strickland apart and eventually finish him with strikes. Go with Adesanya as a -600 favorite to win and take him by TKO to cut down the juice.

UFC 293 Best Bet: Israel Adesanya wins at -600 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 293 Best Prop Bet: Israel Adesanya wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC 293 Best Bets

Manel Kape (-395) vs. Felipe dos Santos (+310)

Also on the main card is a flyweight bout between No. 10 ranked Manel Kape and UFC newcomer Felipe dos Santos. Kape is a -395 favorite, and I expect him to win this fight.

Kape is a 29-year-old Angola native who has a 3-2 record in the UFC. After losing two close decisions to start his UFC career in 2021, he has won all three fights since then, including two by knockout. He is one of the most powerful and athletic flyweights in the UFC, and he could be a title contender if he starts fighting more often. 

Kape has had a lot of fights get scrapped in the last year, but fortunately, it looks like he will finally get to step back in the cage again when he takes on dos Santos, who took this fight on short notice for the injured Kai Kara-France.

Dos Santos is only 22 years old and he is unbeaten so far in his MMA career with a 7-0 record. That being said, while he has been very impressive so far in his young career, he hasn’t fought anyone of note. Now, on very short notice, he has to fly halfway across the world and fight one of the best flyweights in the UFC. 

It feels like it will be a large uphill climb for him. Dos Santos is a quality prospect and he will learn from this experience, but on paper, this is a tough matchup for him. A win for him might just be surviving the full three rounds and not getting knocked out.

Kape has been red hot as of late and I see him continuing his win streak by taking out dos Santos. Look for Kape to be the more effective striker in this fight, and score the knockout win. Go with Kape to win as a -395 betting apps favorite, and consider taking him by TKO for a prop.

UFC 293 Best Bet: Manel Kape wins at -395 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 293 Best Prop Bet: Manel Kape wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

Carlos Ulberg (-290) vs. Da Woon Jung (+235)

Headlining the preliminary card is a light heavyweight bout between Carlos Ulberg and Da Woon Jung. Ulberg is a -290 betting favorite, and I like him to win this fight by knockout.

Ulberg is a 32-year-old New Zealander who has a 5-1 record in the UFC since joining the world’s leading MMA promotion in 2021. After losing his UFC debut, he has won his last four fights, including his last three victories coming by way of first-round knockout.

 Ulberg is one of the biggest punchers at 205 lbs right now and he also has the looks to be a star for the UFC. The promotion is giving him a great opportunity to shine here, and he should win this easily.

Jung joined the UFC in 2019 and the 29-year-old South Korea native is 4-2-1 overall in the promotion. He began his UFC career by going unbeaten in his first five fights, but he was finished by Dustin Jacoby and outwrestled by Devin Clark in his last two bouts. 

It’s rare to see the UFC matching up fighters on win streaks against those on losing streaks, but you can see what the UFC is trying to do here, as it really feels like Jung is being set up to lose this fight.

This appears to be a set-up fight by the UFC matchmakers designed to get Ulberg another highlight-reel win as he continues to move up the 205 lbs ladder. Look for Ulberg to connect with a massive punch in the first round and knock Jung out. Take Ulberg at -290 for the pick and go with him to win this fight by knockout as this fight seems unlikely to last past the first round.

UFC 293 Best Bet: Carlos Ulberg wins at -290 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 293 Best Prop Bet: Carlos Ulberg wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.