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UFC 296 Odds, Picks Predictions & UFC Best Bets For Edwards vs. Covington

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 10 mins

UFC 296 Odds, Picks Predictions & UFC Best Bets For Edwards vs. Covington

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The final UFC event of 2023 takes place this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena when UFC 296 goes down. The stacked card features two title fights, including UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards taking on Colby Covington in the headliner. 

There are 14 fights in total, and we will break down the main event plus two preliminary card bouts in the Bookies.com UFC picks.

Favorite Underdog
Leon Edwards | -130 Colby Covington| +110

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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UFC 296 Main Event Best Bet

Leon Edwards (-148) vs. Colby Covington (+124)

In the main event of UFC 296, Leon Edwards fights Colby Covington with the UFC welterweight title on the line. Edwards is a -148 betting favorite at the top betting apps , and I like him to defend his title again.

Edwards is 32 years old and the Brit is the UFC welterweight champion. He defeated Kamaru Usman with a highlight-reel head kick KO in the summer of 2022 and then defended his title against Usman in a rematch, proving he is the premier welterweight on the planet. He has a 13-2, 1 NC record in the UFC and he has gone unbeaten over his last 12 fights overall. 

He is a tremendous talent who is skilled in every aspect of MMA. He has tremendous striking skills, improved takedown defense, and solid cardio, making him the best welterweight in the world. Against Covington, look for Edwards to try and sprawl and brawl his way to a key victory.

Covington is 35 years of age and he holds a 12-3 record in the UFC. He is a tremendous wrestler who can take down the majority of his opponents and control them on the mat, if not finish them there. He has fought the best of the best in the world, with notable wins over the likes of Jorge Masvidal, Tyron Woodley, Robbie Lawler, Rafael dos Anjos, and Demian Maia. 

While he has been known for his wrestling over the years, his grappling has also improved quite a bit, and he has great cardio. Against Edwards, Covington will be looking to wrestle. It remains to be seen how effective he will be with his grappling given Edwards’ solid takedown defense.

Edwards is the more effective striker and he should have the takedown defense needed to keep this fight standing. On the feet, he will outwork Covington and hurt him as he collects points along the way to win the decision. Take Edwards at -148 and take him to win by decision.

UFC 296 Best Bet: Leon Edwards wins at -148 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 296 Best Prop Bet: Leon Edwards wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other 296 Best Bets

Alexandre Pantoja (-180) vs. Brandon Royval (+150)

In the co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja defends the UFC flyweight title against Brandon Royval. Pantoja is a -180 favorite, and I like him to defeat Royval in this rematch.

Pantoja is 33 years old and he won the UFC flyweight title in his last fight when he defeated Brandon Moreno by split decision at UFC 290. Throughout his UFC career, Pantoja has been supremely underrated. He holds a 10-3 record in the UFC with notable wins over the likes of Moreno, Alex Perez, Manel Kape, and Royval, who he fights this weekend for the belt. 

Pantoja is a very well-rounded fighter who is good everywhere the fight goes, but he excels in the grappling department. He is a fantastic fighter and he has already proven he can beat Royval.

With Royval, he has worked his way to a title shot after winning three straight fights following his loss to Moreno in 2021. The 31-year-old Royval is a very exciting fighter to watch as he can knock his opponents out and submit them at 125 lbs. He has a 5-2 record in the UFC with four wins by stoppage, but he has also been finished twice in his career. 

He is extremely dangerous, but also quite volatile. Going up against Moreno, Royval’s best chance to win is to finish the fight early on, because the longer it goes, the more you have to favor the champ to defend his title.

Pantoja has already submitted Royval and I don’t see any reason why this rematch goes any other way. Take Pantoja to win as a -180 favorite and go with him to win by submission again.

UFC 296 Best Bet: Alexandre Pantoja wins at -180 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 296 Best Prop Bet: Alexandre Pantoja wins by submission at DraftKings Sportsbook

Paddy Pimblett (-325) vs. Tony Ferguson (+260)

Also on the main card is a lightweight bout between Paddy Pimblett and Tony Ferguson. Pimblett is a -325 betting favorite and I believe he will end Ferguson’s UFC career in this fight.

Pimblett is 28 and he has a 4-0 record in the UFC with three wins by stoppage. A former Cage Warriors champion, Pimblett has become very popular in a short amount of time in the UFC. He is quite good with his mouth but he packs it up with solid performances inside the cage, with the ability to finish the fight both on the ground and on the feet. He is entering this fight off a long layoff as he has not fought since last December due to injuries following a controversial win over Jared Gordon. After so much time away from the cage, it will be interesting to see how he looks.

As for Ferguson, he was at one point in time one of the best lightweights in the world, but not anymore. At age 39, he has seen better days as he enters this bout against Pimblett having lost his last six fights in a row. Not only has he been losing these fights, but he has been getting brutally finished as well. 

To be fair to Ferguson, he has only fought high-level foes, but at the same time, he is not competitive in his fights anymore. He does have a ton of experience that he can use to his advantage, but it won’t help him if he is getting beat up all over the Octagon.

Ferguson has lost six straight fights, so picking him is impossible. Take Pimblett to win this fight as a -325 favorite, and take him to win by submission as he sends Ferguson out of the UFC.

UFC 296 Best Bet: Paddy Pimblett wins at   -325 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 296 Best Prop Bet: Paddy Pimblett wins by submission at DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.