UFC Vegas 111 Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets for Bonfim vs. Brown
For the second straight week, the Octagon is featured at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, this time for UFC Vegas 111: Bonfim vs. Brown. The main event features a pair of surging welterweights going at it when Gabriel Bonfim fights Randy Brown, plus there are 12 bouts on the undercard. In the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets, we will break down the headline plus two undercard bouts for you.
UFC odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.
UFC Vegas 111 Main Event Best Bet
Gabriel Bonfim (-198) vs. Randy Brown (+164)
The main event of UFC Vegas 111 is a five-round welterweight bout between Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown. Bonfim is a -150 favorite, and I like him to pick up the win here.
Bonfim is 28, and he is 5-1 in the UFC. The Brazilian earned a UFC contract after winning on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022, and since then, he has broken into the top-15 rankings at 170 lbs in the world’s toughest proving grounds, the UFC. Bonfim has won his last three fights in a row, and three of his five UFC wins have come by submission as he’s shown he has a wicked ground game. He is also young and improving, and seems to be getting better every time we see him fight. After picking up a close decision win over Stephen Thompson in his last fight, Bonfim will now look to prove it wasn’t a fluke when he takes on the veteran Brown here.
Brown is 35, and he is 14-6 in the UFC. The Jamaican-American debuted in the UFC in 2016, and he has been one of the top welterweight fighters since then. He has seven wins by stoppage, showing he has finishing ability, but he also has great cardio and has proven he can win 15-minute wars. That being said, he doesn’t have the best ground game, and he has been submitted several times in his UFC career. He’s a great fighter to be sure, but going up against someone like Bonfim, who should have the grappling advantage, could prove to be disastrous.
I love Brown and have picked him many times as the underdog, but not in this matchup. I like Bonfim to win this fight, as he should be a significantly better grappler on the mat and hold his own in the striking department. Look for Bonfim to take Brown down to the ground and find the submission. Take Bonfim as a -198 favorite, and take him to win by submission for a prop bet.
UFC Vegas 111 Best Bet: Gabriel Bonfim wins at -198 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Other Other UFC Vegas 111 Best Bets
Joseph Morales (-285) vs. Matt Schnell (+230)
The co-main event features flyweights Joseph Morales and Matt Schnell going at it. Morales is a -285 favorite, and I like him to win this fight.
Morales is 31, and he is 2-2 in the UFC. The American originally debuted in the UFC in 2017, and he went 1-2 in the promotion before being cut. After grinding away on the regional circuit for several years, he made it to The Ultimate Fighter, and he won the 33rd season of the show this past summer when he picked up a massive upset win in the finale against Alibi Idiris. It was the kind of win that showed Morales is here to stay this time, and that he’s a flyweight to watch out for. He has one of the best ground games at 125 lbs, and he’ll look to show that against Schnell.
Schnell is 35, and he is 7-7, 1 NC in the UFC. The American joined the UFC in 2016, and he has managed to stick around the promotion for nine years despite having a .500 record. He is an exciting fighter to watch, and he has some slick submission skills, but his durability is a major concern. He has been finished in all seven of his UFC defeats, and he has lost three of his last four fights heading into this one. At this point, Schnell is a gatekeeper at 125 lbs.
Morales looked phenomenal in his return to the UFC, while Schnell is very inconsistent and hasn’t had a truly great performance in years. I really like Morales to not only win this fight, but finish it as well. Take Morales to win at -285, and look for him to finish Schnell by submission.
UFC Vegas 111 Best Bet: Joseph Morales wins at -285 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Uros Medic (-170) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+142)
One of the most exciting fights on the card is a welterweight bout between Uros Medic and Muslim Salikhov. Despite being a +142 underdog, I am taking Salikhov to win this fight.
Salikhov is 41, and he is 9-4 in the UFC. The Russian debuted in the UFC in 2017, and he has been a mainstay in the welterweight division since then. He is an elite striker, with five of his wins coming by way of knockout. He has won his last three fights in a row, including a massive upset win over Carlos Leal in his last fight, which showed he can still beat these younger foes. Despite being one of the UFC’s oldest fighters, Salikhov is still fighting at a very high level.
Medic is 32, and he is 5-3 in the UFC. The Serbian fighter debuted in the UFC in 2021, and he has been a very exciting welterweight since then, scoring all five of his wins by knockout, and having never seen the scorecards win or lose. Medic has big power in his limbs, which we have seen many times, but his durability is also questionable, as he’s been hurt badly on many occasions. Going against an elite striker like Salikhov, Medic could be ripe to get knocked out.
This is a striker vs. striker bout, and although Salikhov is nine years older, he is still the far better striker, in my opinion. Look for Salikhov to pull off the upset with a knockout win in the first round. Take Salikhov to win as a +142 underdog, and take him to win by TKO for a prop bet.
UFC Vegas 111 Best Bet: Muslim Salikhov wins at +142 with DraftKings Sportsbook
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