UFC 323 Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets for Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Promo Code: BOOKIES
The Octagon heads to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday night for the final UFC pay-per-view of the year. UFC 323 features 14 fights in total, including two title fights.
In the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets, we will break down the main event UFC bantamweight title fight between champion Merab Dvalishvili and challenger Petr Yan, the co-main event between UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van, and one of the undercard bouts on this stacked card that is sure to be entertaining for MMA fans.
UFC odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.
UFC 323 Main Event Best Bet
Merab Dvalishvili (-425) vs. Petr Yan (+330)
The main event of UFC 323 is a rematch between UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan. Dvalishvili is a -425 favorite, and I expect him to defeat Yan for a second time.
Dvalishvili is 34, and he is 14-2 in the UFC. The Georgian lost his first two UFC fights, but he has not lost since then, becoming the best bantamweight in the world and arguably the best fighter to ever compete in the weight class. He is the best wrestler in the division, his striking is improving, and he has some of the best cardio in the sport’s history. There is a lot to like about Dvalishvili, but perhaps the most to like about him is his continued activity, as this will be his fourth title defense this year, which would be a new UFC record if he successfully defends it.
Yan is 32, and he is 11-4 in the UFC. The Russian is the former UFC bantamweight champion and still one of the best fighters in the weight class, seven years into his UFC career. Yan is an incredible boxer who has some of the best takedown defense in the division. Unfortunately for Yan, Dvalishvili is a bad stylistic matchup for him. These two met two years ago, and Yan wasn’t able to do anything about the fight as Dvalishvili was constantly pressing him against the fence and taking him down to the mat. It’s very difficult to imagine anything changing in this rematch. As good as Yan is, sometimes someone just has your number in MMA, and Dvalishvili has his.
Dvalishvili is the best bantamweight in the world right now, and I fully expect him to win this fight. The first fight with Yan wasn’t close, and I don’t see this one being close, either. Look for Dvalishvili to pressure Yan the entire fight, push him against the fence, and gain key takedowns to win the fight by decision. Take Dvalishvili to win as a -450 favorite in a same-game parlay with over 4.5 rounds to cut the juice to -205 for the SGP.
UFC 323 Best Bet: Merab Dvalishvili wins plus over 4.5 rounds SGP at -205 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Other UFC 323 Best Bets
Alexandre Pantoja (-238) vs. Joshua Van (+195)
The co-main event of UFC 323 features UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja taking on challenger Joshua Van. Van is a +195 underdog, but I believe he has a good chance to pull off an upset and claim the title.
Pantoja is 35, and he is 14-3 in the UFC. The Brazilian is the UFC flyweight champion, having made four successful title defenses in a row. He has won his last eight fights in the UFC overall and is one of the best flyweights we have ever seen in the sport. He is an incredible grappler who has taken down his foes in most of his fights, often finishing them. He is terrific; however, he is now 36, and could hit a decline spot in his career at any point. We will see if it is this fight when he takes on an incredible prospect in Van, who has proven he is incredibly dangerous.
Van is 24, and he is 8-1 in the UFC. The Myanmar native joined the UFC in 2023, and he has quickly emerged as one of the top flyweights in the sport – and potentially even the best should he get past Pantoja in this fight. Van has some of the best boxing skills in the weight class, and he also has phenomenal takedown defense. He has only been training MMA for five years and has already nearly reached the pinnacle of the sport. Van is a natural, and if he can get past Pantoja in this fight, he will take the flyweight belt and cement his place as one of MMA’s elite.
Pantoja is an incredible fighter and one of the best flyweights of all time, but Van is 11 years younger, fresher, and more dangerous with his striking. As long as Van can keep this fight standing, which I believe he can, he has a good chance of claiming the upset and beating the champ. At +195 odds, I can’t pass up on Van as a dog to take home the UFC flyweight title.
UFC 323 Best Bet: Joshua Van wins at +195 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Mairon Santos (-265) vs. Muhammad Naimov (+215)
On the prelims is a featherweight bout between Mairon Santos and Muhammad Naimov. Santos is a -265 favorite, and I expect him to win this fight.
Santos is 25, and he is 3-0 in the UFC. The Brazilian won The Ultimate Fighter 32 in 2024, and since then, he has picked up two more wins inside the Octagon and Sodiq Yusuff and Francis Marshall. He is a very talented young fighter who has solid striking skills. His takedown defense needs work, but given how young he is, he has all the potential to improve in that area of MMA.
Naimov is 31, and he is 5-1 in the UFC. The Tajikistan native has looked very good overall in the UFC, having won all but one of his fights, which was a submission defeat to prospect Felipe Lima. Naimov has solid striking and grappling skills, making him a well-rounded fighter overall. However, he is not young for the weight class, and he has shown holes in his overall defense.
Look for Santos to outstrike Naimov from distance, and perhaps even finish him in this matchup. Go with Santos to win this fight as a -265 favorite, a fair price to pay for a likely winner.
UFC 323 Best Bet: Mairon Santos wins at -265 with DraftKings Sportsbook
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