UFC 324 Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets for Pimblett vs. Gaethje

Jan 20th, 2026 9:19 AM EST

PADDY PIMBLETT fight (Credit Image: © Alejandro Salazar/ZUMA Press Wire)

It’s a new year, and a fresh beginning for the world’s leading MMA organization. For the first time in history, the UFC will air live on Paramount+, the new home of the Octagon. The first UFC on Paramount+ card is stacked, as the organization has brought the heat with UFC 324, an incredible 14-fight card set to take place this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The main event features the interim UFC lightweight title on the line between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett, plus there are 12 undercard bouts, and we will break down three of these bouts, including the main event, in the return of the Bookies.com Best Bets. I hit at over a 60% clip on my UFC Best Bets in 2025, so follow along as we look to cash big again in 2026.

Without further ado, here are the Bookies.com Best Bets for UFC 324.

Favorite	Underdog
Paddy Pimblett -230	Justin Gaethje +190

UFC odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.

UFC 324 Main Event Best Bet

Paddy Pimblett (-230) vs. Justin Gaethje (+190)

The main event of UFC 324 sees Paddy Pimblett battle Justin Gaethje for the interim UFC lightweight title. Pimblett is a -230 favorite, and I see him getting his hand raised in this fight.

Pimblett is 31, and he is 7-0 in the UFC. The Brit joined the UFC in 2021, and all he has done since then is win, as he’s beaten all seven of the opponents he’s fought inside the Octagon, including five wins by finish. In his last fight, Pimblett destroyed Michael Chandler in an eye-opening victory that showed he is one of the best in the world in his weight class. With current UFC lightweight champion Ilia Topuria out right now due to personal issues, the UFC created an interim lightweight belt, and Pimblett is getting the chance to fight Gaethje for it. On paper, it’s a fight that Pimblett should win, particularly if he can get this fight to the ground. If the fight stays on the feet, however, he could be in trouble as Gaethje packs devastating KO power.

Gaethje is 37, and he is 9-5 in the UFC. The American is regarded as one of the most exciting MMA fighters to ever lace up the gloves, as he is consistently in “Fight of the Night” type of bouts, where he wins all sorts of post-fight bonuses. Gaethje is just a joy to watch as his striking is both brutal and beautiful to watch in all of its glory. That being said, he has suffered several losses in the UFC, including multiple submission defeats. Going up against Pimblett, Gaethje is going to want to keep this fight on the feet, as he is the better striker in terms of both technique and knockout power. But should this fight hit the mat, that’s where he could be in big trouble.

Pimblett continues to get better every time we see him. He is on a long winning streak right now, and he should have a huge advantage in this fight if it hits the floor. Gaethje has a puncher’s chance, but I don’t think he will have much success in this fight as I see Pimblett getting him to the ground and dominating him on the floor. Take Pimblett to win as a -230 favorite, and look for him to defeat Gaethje by submission to win the interim UFC lightweight championship belt.

UFC 324 Best Bet: Paddy Pimblett wins at -230 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC 324 Best Bets

Charles Johnson (-205) vs. Alex Perez (+170)

Two of the top-15-ranked flyweights go at it on the undercard when Charles Johnson battles Alex Perez. Johnson is a -205 favorite, and I like him to win this fight.

Johnson is 35, and he is 7-5 in the UFC. The American’s overall UFC record isn’t spectacular, but don’t let his record fool you, as he’s one of the best flyweights in the world right now. Johnson has won five of his last six fights, which include a KO win over current UFC flyweight champion Joshua Van. In his last fight, Johnson knocked out top prospect Lone'er Kavanagh, showing how dangerous he is. He is a huge flyweight with massive knockout power, great cardio, and he continues to get better despite being one of the older fighters in the weight class. With a win over Perez in this spot, Johnson should get a chance to face someone in the top five.

Perez is 33, and he is 7-6 in the UFC. The American has been one of the top flyweights in the sport for a long time, but in recent years, he has slowed down, as he’s lost five of his last six fights overall. To be fair to Perez, he has been fighting top competition, but he has been getting finished in most of his losses, and it’s concerning to see. Perez is a very talented and skilled fighter, and he has a ton of experience against the best guys in the world. But the results just haven’t been there in a long time, and it doesn’t get any easier for him when he fights Johnson.

Johnson is one of my favorite fighters to watch, and I believe he is the most underrated fighter in the UFC at the moment, considering he has a recent KO win over the current flyweight champ, yet keeps fighting on undercards. It’s a bit odd to me, but for whatever reason, the UFC wants to see more. Beating Perez is the first step toward Johnson getting bigger fights, such as a main event, and I believe he will steal the show here and prove to everyone he’s a legit flyweight contender. Take Johnson to win at -205, and look for him to knock Perez out in victory.

UFC 324 Best Bet: Charles Johnson wins at -205 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Josh Hokit (-245) vs. Denzel Freeman (+200)

We have a battle of heavyweight prospects when Josh Hokit takes on Denzel Freeman. Hokit is a -245 favorite, and I expect him to finish this fight.

Hokit is 28, and he is 1-0 in the UFC. The American won a UFC contract after winning on Dana White’s Contender Series last summer, and he made his debut a few months later and picked up a first-round knockout win over Max Gimenis. Hokit is a high-level wrestler who can take most of his opponents down and beat them up on the floor. He also has knockout power on the feet, and he has good cardio for a big man. He is also a plus athlete, having previously been a member of the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL, giving him an athletic base for his MMA career.

Freeman is 34, and he is 1-0 in the UFC. The American made his UFC debut late last year and picked up a decision win over Marek Bujlo in what was a solid, if unspectacular, performance overall. Overall, he has a 7-1 pro MMA record with five stoppage wins, and his lone loss came by split decision. He is a former U.S. Marine who is also a very athletic fighter with the skills needed to be a solid fighter in the UFC heavyweight division. That being said, he is not being given an easy fight here against Hokit, who should have him beat in the athletic department.

Hokit is one of the best athletes in the UFC heavyweight division, and I believe he has the skills to defeat Freeman in this spot. Look for Hokit to take Freeman down and also outstrike him on the feet and get the finish with a submission. Take Hokit at -245 on the moneyline for your best bet.

UFC 324 Best Bet: Josh Hokit wins at -245 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Adam Martin

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A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.